Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Tighty and other baseball folk...

As much as I'd like the Yankees to be crushing again (I know this is not how you endear yourself to baseball fans, but hear me out) and as much as I think the line of 81 wins is low, provided the injury count isn't as utterly hideous as it was last season, I'm figuring value is not in backing the pinstripe team from the Bronx.

Two teams in divisions with big odds on jollies seem interesting to me from what I've read and I wonder if there are any views.

The Miami Marlins have three young prospects in the backfield who put up impressive numbers last season:

Stanton: .288 BA, .950 OPS, 37 HR, 105 RBI, 89 R, 6.5 WAR
Ozuna: .269 BA, .772 OPS, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 72 R, 4.4 WAR
Yelich: .284 BA, .764 OPS, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 94 R, 3.6 WAR

(I only know what most of those mean but I'm sure someone will explain if needs be)

They also have a strong pitching unit, which will be strengthened when the star pitcher returns in the summer from something called Tommy John surgery.

8/1 second favourite, behind the massive Washington Nationals. Is there any scope here? Nationals have the best pitching rotation in baseball, but that's surely reflected in the price?

The second is a team that had a good pitching rotation (4th overall) but an awful offense (as in worst in the whole league). They've managed to get some batters in without compromising on the mound-dwellers. A new GM and only a 77-85 season to overturn suggests there's hope, if the team can gel quickly. San Diego Padres anyone? 11/2 with BMU for their division.

I don't follow baseball so much these days, keeping only a passing interest and watching a few games in sportsbooks when in Vegas. Am more than happy for people to explain why this fag packet analysis isn't good enough.

Baseball sweats ftw.

i mostly follow the american league and the £1,000 the thread made last year was on the american league divisions etc..kansas city, baltimore etc

however

i think we might be in the realms of illusory value with these two

the nationals are the overall favourites for the world series and 1/3 for the division

they recruited Scherzer from the Tigers and this really does complete the best starting rotation in baseball

the marlins are recovering from the bottom but are a year into a 4-5 year recovery.

shouldn't get close to the nats in the NL East

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/national-league-east/winner

the Padres are a small market team in a big market division. no salary cap in baseball and it would be a huge surprise to me if they were to win the division over the dodgers who have bought a lot of talent again. then you have the giants too

it is true that the padres, who had no run support for their pitching in 2013,14 have invested to resolve this imbalance but to get past the dodgers and the giants?

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/national-league-west/winner

i can place both bets if you wish, but if it was my call there are plenty of other opportunities where you don't have to overcome two of the most cast iron favourites in any division

in fact you are taking on the two ante post favourites for the world series

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner

[Tal]

Quite happy to cede, here. Just opening up the discussion. Let's pick winners instead!

[tikay]

Quite happy to cede, here. Just opening up the discussion. Let's pick winners instead!

He proper pissed on your parade.

Click to see full-size image.

But no matter, as you say, it'll nudge us into action.

[tikay]

It seems things are going well up at Sunderland, with Fletcher knocking in goals left right & centre.

[nellberg]

Any value in NZ at 2.28 tonight? Playing at home and arguably the most impressive side in the tournament so far

if anyone got on this they had quite a sweat, game had absolutely everything, grant eliiott winning it for new zealand with a 6 off the 2nd last ball of the game

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £178.40

Outstanding Bets £4182.34

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=22

We've just witnessed one of the great world cup matches, with Grant Elliott hitting a six off the second last ball to get New Zealand to the final, knocking out South Africa

Click to see full-size image.

Amla only scored 10 today. Over the tournament 333 runs is respectable, nothing more..certainly under these playing conditions. A disappointing loss of £40

Morkel took three wickets today and the position ahead of the second semi final in top wicket-taker



Boult 21
Starc 18
Shami 17
Morkel 17

the 16-1 e/w bet pays 4 places

Southee with 15 wickets and now one game to play can knock the bet out of that each way place, realistically no one else can

also yesterday

in the nba last night one of our teams played, the chicago bulls beat the charlotte hornets 98-86 and clinched a play off spot (currently would be 4th seed in their conference), and we have them at 8-1 to win the nba championship

Click to see full-size image.

in the NHL the Minnesota wild beat the toronto maple leafs 2-1

i read that " Devan Dubnyk added to his ironman streak, making his 32nd straight start, and the Minnesota Wild extended their string of road wins to nine, hanging on for a 2-1 victory over the slumping Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday night.

The loss was the sixth straight for the Maple Leafs (27-41-6), who came close several times to tying it late.

Charlie Coyle and Thomas Vanek scored for Minnesota (41-25-7), which is 23-6-2 since acquiring Dubnyk on Jan. 14."

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

coming soon

no doubt we will be open to all the offers that crop up....

but if there is anything out there early doors, let us know

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

Quite happy to cede, here. Just opening up the discussion. Let's pick winners instead!

He proper pissed on your parade.

Click to see full-size image.

But no matter, as you say, it'll nudge us into action.

Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

No view on the Yankees >81>, I noticed.

You wouldn't think backing the second favourite in a six horse race was such a mistake, would you?!

Good to learn, though. Would rather back stuff that's going to make me money, so I'm all ears.

[TightEnd]

sorry, didn't mean to be too forthright :-(

we're on boston in the yankees division. think that should be a good turn-around

as for the yankees, well you know that if they are close come the late summer trade deadline that the owners will throw money at it, but as of now i don't have them winning the division.

still very very positive about the white sox in the central and as of yesterday you could get 3-1+ third favourites the division and 16-1 american league there

i will go away and check the marlins and padres...not sure i could handle 162 days of them winning a divisional title and us not being on now!

[tikay]

sorry, didn't mean to be too forthright :-(

we're on boston in the yankees division. think that should be a good turn-around

as for the yankees, well you know that if they are close come the late summer trade deadline that the owners will throw money at it, but as of now i don't have them winning the division.

still very very positive about the white sox in the central and as of yesterday you could get 3-1+ third favourites the division and 16-1 american league there

i will go away and check the marlins and padres...not sure i could handle 162 days of them winning a divisional title and us not being on now!

Any view on the Yankees 81 thing?

[Chompy]

Choral have two prices for Harry Kane to score any time v Lithuania.

Their normal price is 4/5; their special price is 7/4 (bet loses if he doesn't play).

The latter price is obv wrong. Try for £200 and take whatever they knock you back to ta.

[TightEnd]

sorry, didn't mean to be too forthright :-(

we're on boston in the yankees division. think that should be a good turn-around

as for the yankees, well you know that if they are close come the late summer trade deadline that the owners will throw money at it, but as of now i don't have them winning the division.

still very very positive about the white sox in the central and as of yesterday you could get 3-1+ third favourites the division and 16-1 american league there

i will go away and check the marlins and padres...not sure i could handle 162 days of them winning a divisional title and us not being on now!

Any view on the Yankees 81 thing?

162 games in a season

so the question is, will the Yankees have a winning season?

last year they finished 84-78

one commentator says

"Projected Win Total: 81.5

Why They Will Win Less

Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann are all shells of the players they were during their respective primes, and counting on them to stay healthy, let alone productive, is asking a lot.

Then there's the starting rotation, where Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova all enter the season as significant question marks from a health standpoint.

Even if this team can somehow stay whole over the course of the 162-game season, the Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays all look to be more talented, and the Rays will be no walk in the park with one of the best starting rotations in baseball.

My honest opinion: The Yankees probably have a better chance of finishing in the AL East cellar than they do of making the playoffs in 2015.

That being said, this team finally looks to be building toward something better.

With a wealth of young talent in the minor leagues, no more significant additions made to the payroll this offseason and an end in sight on some of their bad contracts, better days are ahead."

you can google and find any number of opinions. obviously the deeper into baseball stats you go, the further you sink only to need a bigger tractor to pull you out of the quicksand



i looked at win total expectations for

padres 84 v dodgers 91

marlins 81 v nats 93

the dodgers and nats have the highest expected win totals throughout the MLB

these expectations can be wrong, of course but are they 7-12 games wrong vis a vis the pairs?

it speaks also to a bigger picture issue, in that in the win total expectations the american league is forecast to be a lot more competitive than the national league (no american league team is above 87 in projected win totals)

the yankees in the AL in a tough division simply have to play a lot of very competitive teams compared to a similar team in the NL

so i don't see why 10/11 o/u 81 is especially value either way


this, for the nerd, is wonderful and fascinating

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/explaining-2015-mlb-parity-projected-standings/

[TightEnd]

Choral have two prices for Harry Kane to score any time v Lithuania.

Their normal price is 4/5; their special price is 7/4 (bet loses if he doesn't play).

The latter price is obv wrong. Try for £200 and take whatever they knock you back to ta.

Harry Kane to score for England against Lithuania on March 27th (loser if he doesn’t play)
7/4
Harry Kane to score for England against Lithuania on March 27th - 27/03/2015
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£55.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £55.00

[Tal]

Would the difference between the Padres and the Dodgers, say, be bigger than the difference between the St Louis Rams and the Seattle Seahawks? I seem to recall we backed the Rams to win that division.

I think we are at the point of saying these bets shouldn't be placed by Fred, which I'm absolutely fine with (and thank you for the details, Tighty; much appreciated), but the question of a favourite becoming too heavily fancied and others offering value is something Fred has been very good at addressing.

Just need to find the right spots.

[arbboy]

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Baseball+Props/MLB/MLB+Regular+Season+Wins/Lines.aspx

Don't bet any divisions/ante post etc before you review how the bet/price fits in relation to these over/under wins bets.  These are the best guide of a teams chances of success.  These will be bashed into line by the vegas shrewdies and all the other global shrewdies so you can be pretty sure they will be an accurate guide.  The NBA version was used by me to confirm most of my ante post views last year before any bets were struck.

The vast majority of loltraders in the uk based books won't use this accurate guide to price up conferences and divisions etc and this is where the vast majority of the ante book ricks will exist (similar to the raptors division price in the nba last year which made the Raptors a 1/5 poke on the reg season win totals rather than the odds against odds the uk books were offering.  It also helped that two big market teams with big fan bases but shit teams were also in the same division.  Similar tactics should be adopted when looking for MLB antepost imo.