Tips for Tikay

[typhoon13]

March 2015 Figures

Closed bets: 137
Amount wagered: £3,367.75
Profit/loss: -£55.73
ROI: -1.65%

Number of "sports" bet on: 13
Most popular: Horses (66), Football (18), MotorSport (13).
Most profitable: Football (£243.78), Basketball (£83.34),  MotorSport (£79.98)
Least profitable: Horses (-£280.62), Darts (-£126.00), Cricket (-£75.00)

Number of tipsters: 36 including 4 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 4,473
Amount wagered: £134,129.66
Profit/loss: £5,297.79
ROI: 3.95%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Horses(1,119), Football (1,072), Golf (361), Cricket(271).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   2,715.70   32,712.93   8.30   1,072
Misc.   1,956.70   5,583.44   35.04   141
Baseball   1,037.20   1,726.00   60.09   37
...
Basketball   -411.17   3,906.89   -10.52   102
Golf   -446.88   9,732.84   -4.59   361
RU   -617.30   4,381.39   -14.09   228


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 170


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 52

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports      2,505.40   4,520.45   55.42   116
Ladbrokes      2,324.68   16,670.46   13.94   594
WilliamHill      1,800.70   23,878.44   7.54   788
...
Coral      -426.44   8,264.40   -5.16   295
PaddyPower      -535.15   7,678.64   -6.97   362
BetFred      -1,415.48   10,022.92   -14.12   344


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7


A busy month with 137 bets settled.
The most since July 2014.

Good behind the scene analysis as usual Vince

[tikay]

March 2015 Figures

Closed bets: 137
Amount wagered: £3,367.75
Profit/loss: -£55.73
ROI: -1.65%

Number of "sports" bet on: 13
Most popular: Horses (66), Football (18), MotorSport (13).
Most profitable: Football (£243.78), Basketball (£83.34),  MotorSport (£79.98)
Least profitable: Horses (-£280.62), Darts (-£126.00), Cricket (-£75.00)

Number of tipsters: 36 including 4 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 4,473
Amount wagered: £134,129.66
Profit/loss: £5,297.79
ROI: 3.95%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Horses(1,119), Football (1,072), Golf (361), Cricket(271).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   2,715.70   32,712.93   8.30   1,072
Misc.   1,956.70   5,583.44   35.04   141
Baseball   1,037.20   1,726.00   60.09   37
...
Basketball   -411.17   3,906.89   -10.52   102
Golf   -446.88   9,732.84   -4.59   361
RU   -617.30   4,381.39   -14.09   228


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 170


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 52

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports      2,505.40   4,520.45   55.42   116
Ladbrokes      2,324.68   16,670.46   13.94   594
WilliamHill      1,800.70   23,878.44   7.54   788
...
Coral      -426.44   8,264.40   -5.16   295
PaddyPower      -535.15   7,678.64   -6.97   362
BetFred      -1,415.48   10,022.92   -14.12   344


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7


A busy month with 137 bets settled.
The most since July 2014.

Thanks Vince. 4 minutes late, but otherwise A+......

We lost a little money this month, but no big deal, & I think we can safely blame variance.  

Want to pick up on this though.....

A busy month with 137 bets settled.
The most since July 2014.

Agreed, a great month for Fred.

The number of bets settled per month from October to February respectively were....

80

89

87

83

70

So 137 bets is a significant upturn.

New Tipsters at 4 was good, too, we only had 6 new Tipsters in the previous 5 months.

General activity & interest was hugely up on February.

February - 1,005 posts

March - 2,580 posts

Most pleasing, & let's hope we can continue in this vein. Be good to get a few lapsed regulars back, the door is open to everyone.

Heres to a good April, with the Grand National meeting & Augusta Masters the headline acts, & the various season-long Basketball & Football bets coming to a climax.

[TightEnd]

yesterday

the LA Clippers blew a 17 point lead, despite 40 points from Blake Griffin losing to the GS Warriors 110-106

Click to see full-size image.

the San Antonio Spurs beat the Miami Heat 95-81. Kawhi Leonard w/ 22 points, 9 boards, 4 steals, 3 assists, & 2 blocks.

Click to see full-size image.

down to the last 8 or so of the regular season games. San Antonio are now within 2.5 games of the southwest division lead having won 8 of their last 10

[arbboy]

Very tough for the Spurs to win this division imo as they are struggling massively tie breaker wise with Memphis. They finished their head to head 2-2 on the season but count back breakers go on division record then conference record both currently against the Spurs.  On the plus side Memphis are on a bit of a downswing since the all star break and have a very tough 3 game road trip to close out their reg season with (Utah, Golden State and Clippers) 3 games in 4 nights.  So we still have some hope.

They still have 2 games against Houston (1h/1a) which they will realistically have to win both of those to have any chance and would then have the breaker over Houston.  Houston have lost their starting PG for the remainder of the season which helps us massively with these two games coming up.

Portland could be weighed in tonight for their division officially if they win and OKC lose.  1/100 at 888.com is literally free money if anyone can be bothered who hasn't got involved already.

[TightEnd]

anyone remember this?

1st April 1989

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/21946903

I miss Grandstand

[TightEnd]

this is a press release i received this afternoon from Coral

i am sure similar prices are out there at ladbrokes etc

if anything stands out please let us know

"Bookies braced for Leaders’ Debate betting bonanza

Britain’s bookmakers are preparing for huge betting interest in tomorrow night’s televised Leaders’ Debate with hundreds of thousands of pounds expected to be staked on the ITV event.

In addition to betting on which leader will win the debate, leading bookmaker Coral is offering a wide range of betting markets to tap into the expected demand including:

–         match bets between the different leaders, with Miliband the marginal favourite at 4/6 in his match bet with David Cameron

–         odds on the TV ratings with over 9.5 million viewers priced at 15/8

–         odds on which leader comes last with Leanne Wood the 9/4 favourite

–         debate bingo on phrases being said during the debate with for example  ‘Hard working families’ odds-on at 4/6, ‘Broken promises’ long odds-on at 1/12 and ‘I believe we can win an overall majority’ Even money to be said.

So great is the anticipated level of betting interest, Coral will break new ground for political betting by taking bets ‘in-running’ on the Leaders Debate, in the same way that bookies ‘bet-in-play’ on football matches and sports events.

“The TV audience for this debate will be bigger than for any sports event bar the Grand National or the World Cup final, and with seven runners, the debate is an event that lends itself perfectly for betting in running,” said Simon Clare, Coral Spokesman.

“The British public love placing bets on high profile mass-market events  like the Eastenders’ Who Killed Lucky Beale plotline or reality TV shows like X-Factor and Strictly Come Dancing, and we are expecting hundreds of thousands of pounds to be bet on which party leader comes out on top in this Election debate”, added Clare.

Nigel Farage has this morning been well backed into 13/8 favourite with Coral from 7/4 to win the debate, while Ed Miliband has also attracted bets in to 5/2 from 11/4.  David Cameron has remained steady at 7/2 with Nicola Sturgeon, 9/1 from 6/1, and Natalie Bennett, 20/1 from 11/1, both eased out by Coral in the betting.


CORAL LEADERS’ DEBATE BETTING

Coral Odds on Leader To win the TV Debate
13-8 Nigel Farage, 5-2 Ed Miliband, 7-2 David Cameron, 9-1 Nicola Sturgeon, 9-1 Nick Clegg, 20-1 Natalie Bennett, 25-1 Leanne Wood

(*Result determined by YouGov poll)

Leader match bets
4-6 Miliband v 11-10 Cameron
1-2 Cameron v 6-4 Clegg
4-9 Miliband v 13-8 Clegg
4-11 Clegg v 2-1 Farage
4-7 Sturgeon v 5-4 Wood
8-11 Bennett v Evens Wood

Big Four Winner
11-8 Farage, 2-1 Miliband, 3-1 Cameron, 6-1 Clegg

TV Ratings
2-5 Under 9.5 million, 15-8 Over 9.5 million

To Come Last
9-4 Wood, 5-2 Bennett, 4-1 Sturgeon, 5-1 Clegg, 10-1 Cameron, 16-1 Miliband, 33-1 Farage

Leaders’ Debate Bingo (for the following phrases to be said during the debate)
1-100 Halve the deficit
1-20 I agree with Ed
1-12 Broken promises
1-12 Tax cuts for millionaires
2-9 Bedroom tax
1-3 I agree with David
2-5 I agree with Leanne
2-5 I agree with Nick
1-2 I agree with Nicola
8-15 I agree with Nigel
4-6 Hard working families
4-6 Top down reorganisation of the NHS
8-11 In Alex Salmond’s pocket
4-5 Class warfare
10-11 He forgot about the deficit
Evens I believe we can win an overall majority
6-5 1.8 million zero hour contracts
6-5 Tax and spend
5-4 A return to the 1930s
11-8 Same old Labour
6-4 Three million jobs depend on Europe
2-1 British jobs for British workers
5-2 He just doesn’t get it
3-1 Pull up the drawbridge
4-1 Two kitchens
9-2 I believe in Britain
5-1 Professional politicians
8-1 Immigrants clogging up the motorway
10-1 Jeremy Clarkson
10-1 The deserving poor
10-1 UKIP are a racist party
33-1 Wayne Rooney

Other Election Odds

Prime Minister on June 1st
2-5 David Cameron, 7-4 Ed Miliband, 40-1 Any other person

Party to win most seats
4-9 Conservatives, 7-4 Labour, 100-1 UKIP, 500-1 Liberal Democrats, 1000-1 Green Party

Party to win an overall majority
1-5 No party, 4-1 Conservatives, 14-1 Labour, 125-1 UKIP, 1000-1 Liberal Democrats

Make up of next government
2-1 Coalition involving Liberal Democrats, 13-2 Coalition involving the SNP, 14-1 Coalition involving UKIP,

Will there be two General Elections in 2015?
11-4 Yes
1-4 No"

[Tal]

Strictly Come Dancing?

As if anyone would be betting on that!

[DMorgan]

YouGov survey released today has Labour winning the most seats

https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

[Chompy]

Said I'd never touch these buzzword bingo markets again but 1.8m zero-hour contracts is only going to be said as 1.8m zero-hour contracts, and surely gets sayed?

[mulhuzz]

surely 13/8 for Farage to win is fucking ludicrously short?

[TightEnd]

Party to win an overall majority
1-5 No party


is in reality a 1-10 shot for anyone who likes an arbboy

been through the maths lots of ways for articles, the surge in SNP seats/halving of LD seats means neither L or C can get a majority unless something really goes wrong with one campaign or the other

the old binary model that FPTP produces doesn't work with SNP 40+ seats

[TightEnd]

surely 13/8 for Farage to win is fucking ludicrously short?

it was 9/4 on sunday

its a seven way debate, going to be a bunfight

he's a populist performer with a good line in slogans. can virtually say anything safe in the knowledge that its unlikely to come back to him post may as it did for clegg last time over tuition fees

 going to be very unpopular on here but thats not an issue, its what the you gov panel thinks

thrashed Clegg in their head to head tv debate

also going to be a right wing voice amongst 5 left wing voices. he's going to stand out

a worthy favourite, but the price has gone now

[arbboy]

Party to win an overall majority
1-5 No party


is in reality a 1-10 shot for anyone who likes an arbboy

been through the maths lots of ways for articles, the surge in SNP seats/halving of LD seats means neither L or C can get a majority unless something really goes wrong with one campaign or the other

the old binary model that FPTP produces doesn't work with SNP 40+ seats

This is the kind of price which could easily be a 1/50 shot but it will always be held up too big because of the weight of money for either party to win by majority from rec's will always outweigh pros who are willing to tie up so much cash on a shortie for several months which means the 1/5 will usually be under backed relative to it's chance.  I understand the political system for GE's well but probably not quite as well as tighty but i would be willing to agree with him something drastic would have to happen for the 1/5 not to hose up.  There is so much wiggle room either side for decent % moves and it still to end up as a hung parl.

[TightEnd]

323 is a majority

you can pick your own estimate but mine would be something like

Con 275

Lab 275

LD 30

SNP 45

UKIP 3

Green 1

SNP got 6 last time. That 40 seat increase this is mostly from Labour, some LD

without the structural changes in Scotland seats, Lab would get close to majority

but with SNP 40+ they can't make it

Con 280, UKIP will win 1-7 seats only but thats off 1.5m votes

if UKIP didn't exist then 75%+ of that 1.5m vote base reverts to Con and in FPTP system gives them a shot at a majority

so the combination of UKIP and SNP breaking down two party voting patterns means majority goverment is an almost impossibility this time

big picture, this vote share relative to seat pattern is going to mean vote reform is going to be a big issue in post election coalition wrangling

because a coalition is going to need to look like con+ld+ukip+dup or lab+snp+sdlp+green to get anywhere close to 323 all the marginal power in these discussions is in the smaller parties who can extract huge concessions. or should

[stumpythefish]

Long time reader who really enjoys this thread so thought id try my first bet

Stephen peters 5/1 sj  top northants batsman in cc div 2 for me he should be 5/2 fav .Northants had a nightmare season in div 1 last year when peters was captain.Without the shackles of captaincy and back in div 2 he looks the clear favourite to be top scorer imo.
The opposition
1.kyle coatzer 4/1 I don't even think he will get into the team when everyone is fully fit.
2,r levi 3/1 more of a 20/20 specialist cant see him been consistant enough to be top scorer in cc
3, rossington  9/2 came in late last season and did ok but still has a lot to prove
4,a wakely 6/1 was off all last year with injury and will probably take awhile to settle back in
5,r Keogh 7/1 a promising young player but still a lot to do to be in peters league
6,j cobb 8/1 another with promise but a lot to prove
7,r newton 10/1 a player whos shown a lot of promise with 6x 100 in 3 years ravaged by injury if he stays fit I think hes the main danger to peters
8,duckett  16/1 another promising youngster whos had some fitness problems and still a lot to prove to be in peters league
9willey 25/1 a really promising all rouder but he could be battiing as low as 8 or 9 this year so going toi be really hard to be top scorer from there
MY BETS
peters 5/1 100
newton 10/1 50