Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Poshies now can't finish in the bottom half. Or not barring a minor miracle.

Thanks

thats another £10 in the pot

can doobs update us on the prem handicaps please?

is liverpool +14 a loser yet?

Pretty sure it must be lost by now, but 20 miles from my spreadsheet.  Sure Palace is still live, they will be 2nd or 3rd still. 

Liverpool can still get 4th.  They can't catch Southampton, Swansea and Palace.  The bet will probably be dead after next weekend.

Current projected points

Southampton 98
Swansea 96
Palace 93
West Ham 89
Chelsea 89
Stoke 89
Aresenal 85
...
10 Liverpool 81

[exstream]

la liga tonight, real madrid away at celta vigo are 3/4 with chandler. i'm aware they are missing bale, modric and benzema but they were when beating athleti on wednesday so think the price is huge. might be missing something e.g ronnys out injured etc but from checking around i can't find anything. real are in good form and need the win to keep their la liga challenge alive. celta are comfy in mid table, have been in good form against the lesser sides and lost a tight one to barca recently. had expected a price below 1/2 if i'm honest

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/celta-vigo-v-real-madrid/winner

we have a nice bet on Barca to win la liga, they won 2-0 against espanyol yesterday to go five points clear....

could do with real not winning this!

real have been drifting too, as you say....

anyway,

 Celta Vigo v Real Madrid Real Madrid (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 8/11 Stake: 31.88 Possible Return:  55.07

both teams using the liberal meaning of the word "defence" means its 3-2 real at half time ... its been a sweat so far eh, jeeeeeeeeeez

Hope you win your bet, but really was this value?

The market knows Real needs to win this, it is hardly hidden from the odds compilers and the betting public.

If anything it will be priced defensively, because the bookies know every ice cream around the world will want to bet on Real.

Norwich and Middlesborough needed to win their games yesterday desperately. How did they fare?

Although I agree with what you're saying, isn't it the same as the very first bet posted on this thread?

The market knows etc, same with loads of bets/odds on here.

[The Camel]

la liga tonight, real madrid away at celta vigo are 3/4 with chandler. i'm aware they are missing bale, modric and benzema but they were when beating athleti on wednesday so think the price is huge. might be missing something e.g ronnys out injured etc but from checking around i can't find anything. real are in good form and need the win to keep their la liga challenge alive. celta are comfy in mid table, have been in good form against the lesser sides and lost a tight one to barca recently. had expected a price below 1/2 if i'm honest

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/celta-vigo-v-real-madrid/winner

we have a nice bet on Barca to win la liga, they won 2-0 against espanyol yesterday to go five points clear....

could do with real not winning this!

real have been drifting too, as you say....

anyway,

 Celta Vigo v Real Madrid Real Madrid (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 8/11 Stake: 31.88 Possible Return:  55.07

both teams using the liberal meaning of the word "defence" means its 3-2 real at half time ... its been a sweat so far eh, jeeeeeeeeeez

Hope you win your bet, but really was this value?

The market knows Real needs to win this, it is hardly hidden from the odds compilers and the betting public.

If anything it will be priced defensively, because the bookies know every ice cream around the world will want to bet on Real.

Norwich and Middlesborough needed to win their games yesterday desperately. How did they fare?

Although I agree with what you're saying, isn't it the same as the very first bet posted on this thread?

The market knows etc, same with loads of bets/odds on here.

The first bet posted on this thread was a suggestion for a bet on Michel Hazanavicius to win the Best Director Oscar at 5/8 when the prices first appeared.

By Oscar night he was 1/12 and duly picked up the award.

You are going to have to explain how this is the same as backing Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo 15 minutes before kick off.

[exstream]

In the 85th minute, Madrid were 1/200 to win the game.

[tikay]

Watford

We are starting to become big fans of Watford here, (thinking though our pockets?), but I saw a piece in the paper today which struck me as an odd stat.

Watford have had FOUR Managers this season. 

Can't be too many Clubs that have been promoted to the EPL under such circumstances, can there?

[Tal]

Watford

We are starting to become big fans of Watford here, (thinking though our pockets?), but I saw a piece in the paper today which struck me as an odd stat.

Watford have had FOUR Managers this season. 

Can't be too many Clubs that have been promoted to the EPL under such circumstances, can there?

From the outside, the club seems to be an absolute mess and it's an astonishing story that the players have been so cohesive and determined on the pitch.

Who knows which Udinese players will be gracing the premiership next season?

[arbboy]

la liga tonight, real madrid away at celta vigo are 3/4 with chandler. i'm aware they are missing bale, modric and benzema but they were when beating athleti on wednesday so think the price is huge. might be missing something e.g ronnys out injured etc but from checking around i can't find anything. real are in good form and need the win to keep their la liga challenge alive. celta are comfy in mid table, have been in good form against the lesser sides and lost a tight one to barca recently. had expected a price below 1/2 if i'm honest

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/celta-vigo-v-real-madrid/winner

we have a nice bet on Barca to win la liga, they won 2-0 against espanyol yesterday to go five points clear....

could do with real not winning this!

real have been drifting too, as you say....

anyway,

 Celta Vigo v Real Madrid Real Madrid (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 8/11 Stake: 31.88 Possible Return:  55.07

both teams using the liberal meaning of the word "defence" means its 3-2 real at half time ... its been a sweat so far eh, jeeeeeeeeeez

Hope you win your bet, but really was this value?

The market knows Real needs to win this, it is hardly hidden from the odds compilers and the betting public.

If anything it will be priced defensively, because the bookies know every ice cream around the world will want to bet on Real.

Norwich and Middlesborough needed to win their games yesterday desperately. How did they fare?

Although I agree with what you're saying, isn't it the same as the very first bet posted on this thread?

The market knows etc, same with loads of bets/odds on here.

The first bet posted on this thread was a suggestion for a bet on Michel Hazanavicius to win the Best Director Oscar at 5/8 when the prices first appeared.

By Oscar night he was 1/12 and duly picked up the award.

You are going to have to explain how this is the same as backing Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo 15 minutes before kick off.

It seems to be to be the same old 'would you have backed Real Madrid at home at 1/4 in the same game?' as another rec has been put up on a big name team in a tv game on the road.  Teams like Madrid always look more sexy on the road as they go off at bigger prices which seem appealing.  They do so for a reason, because they are on the road.

I have no idea if the 8/11 was value or not.  My question, as usual but very importantly, would have been would you have had the same bet on Madrid at 1/4 if they were at home in the same game with everything else equal.  If he thinks the 1/4 has the same edge in the bet then there is no problem.  The vast majority of times though punters in this situation wouldn't be as keen to steam into the 1/4 which usually shows the lack of edge in most of these types of bet.

I am not of the same opinion as many saying markets are always correct close to kick off.  They can be, and are more likely to be than at any time during the formation of any market, but they can also be wrong for various reasons.  As Camel says in this spot it would be rare that Madrid would be going off too big in a late Sunday tv game when there is little else for the wagons to smash into to get out on the weekend.

I think it is important we keep asking questions regarding bets and keep focusing on the original purpose of the fred which was making money finding the boss profitable bets over the long term.  Obviously having fun is a big part of the fred as well but it is a lot more fun when we are winning than breaking even or losing.

[Omm]

In the 85th minute, Madrid were 1/200 to win the game.

Clutching at straws there Ex.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £729.95

Outstanding Bets £3868.02

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit?pli=1#gid=23

A profit of £3 yesterday

+£23 Real Madrid beating Celta Vigo 4-2. Barcelona remain two points ahead in our bet for them to win La Liga

Click to see full-size image.

+£10 (net) Peterborough finishing top half of league one

losers

-£20 The Toronto Raptors losing 125-94 to the Washington Wizards and being knocked out of the NBA play offs

-£10 No royal baby yet, and the first bet dates have now passed

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing

Arsenal's point against Chelsea took them level with Man Cin the race for 2nd with a game in hand. they have to go to Old Trafford in the last five games, and its going to be a close battle for 2nd

Click to see full-size image.

NBA

The Cleveland Cavaliers advanced to the conference semi-finals beating the Celtics 101-93, winning the series 4-0

Click to see full-size image.

the LA Clippers beat the San Antonio Spurs 114-105 to tie their series 2-2. Chris Paul 34 points and 7 assists

Click to see full-size image.

NHL

The Minnesota Wild advanced in the play-offs beating the St Louis Blues 4-1 to go on to clinch a playoff series at home for the 1st time in team history

Click to see full-size image.

Snooker

Murphy and Robertson are both a frame away from the semi's leading gonig into today 12-4

Click to see full-size image.

Cricket

The Rajastan Royals match yesterday in Kolkota was rained off. the point for the draw took them back to the top of the table and more importantly denied Kolkota a chance to catch up



in the county game

Somerset were 377-3 on a road in Taunton and collapsed to 408 all out against Middlesex 

Derbyshire dismissed Gloucs for 275 in Bristol and were 24-0 at the close

Lancashire started well against Kent, 317-5 at the close

Northants batted against Leics, Newton 71 and Peters 40 in their total of 251

baseball

the White Sox won their postponed game 3-2 and then the secheduled game 5-3 to record two wins against the Royals yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

the cuban slugger Abreu became only the fourth player in history to hit. 300 with 40HR and 120RBIin his first season of play

Click to see full-size image.

The Red Sox are going to have to look at acquiring some starting pitching depth, they lost 18 (no typo)-7 to the Orioles yesterday

[BigAdz]

I've been driving all night, and really don't want to get into Monday morning fighting, but I do think your treatment of Nellburg is a little harsh.

Maybe the bet wasn't "valutastic" but its no different to a raft of saturday football bets put up every week, or when Tikay says he fancies a punt. No one has a go then.

I totally accept that probably every bet Argue has put up has value in it, but not everyone has the staking power to get involved in a bunch of 1-20 shots, and so search in other places.

I think one concept, akin to the value concept, we tend to pass over, is risk and reward, which maybe suits the mindset of ur average Fred member, a little better.


Drum roll for the inevitable sledging.........

[TightEnd]

No sledging, but no one is having a go at anyone are they?

polite questions and feedback, not at all harsh and taken in the spirit it was intended?

its a useful process if bets are questioned as to value, something that should happen more often. helps us all learn

 

[Tal]

Meh. No sledging needed.

Always room for a few fun bets at nominal cost. They're good for the accounts and something for everyone to follow on a Sunday night. £30 isn't going to cause any damage either way and we'll likely get a return, too.

But we make money from not betting on Real Madrid to win. Might as well bet Messi scoring anytime because they're playing a Patzer XI or betting on Nabil Bentaleb passing backwards every time he gets the ball (nap).

I don't see the harm in it, so long as we know it's not the same as our stock bets.

[BigAdz]

I think the point I am making is that in his post Nellburg was suggesting in his eyes IT WAS VALUE, "price huge" "expecting 1/2" etc.

Is betfair the marker for every bet we make?

And I take on board Tals point about fun bets, but Camel almost suggested there was no place for that. That's the point I'm trying to make in my usual misunderstood way.

[nellberg]

la liga tonight, real madrid away at celta vigo are 3/4 with chandler. i'm aware they are missing bale, modric and benzema but they were when beating athleti on wednesday so think the price is huge. might be missing something e.g ronnys out injured etc but from checking around i can't find anything. real are in good form and need the win to keep their la liga challenge alive. celta are comfy in mid table, have been in good form against the lesser sides and lost a tight one to barca recently. had expected a price below 1/2 if i'm honest

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/celta-vigo-v-real-madrid/winner

we have a nice bet on Barca to win la liga, they won 2-0 against espanyol yesterday to go five points clear....

could do with real not winning this!

real have been drifting too, as you say....

anyway,

 Celta Vigo v Real Madrid Real Madrid (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 8/11 Stake: 31.88 Possible Return:  55.07

both teams using the liberal meaning of the word "defence" means its 3-2 real at half time ... its been a sweat so far eh, jeeeeeeeeeez

Hope you win your bet, but really was this value?

The market knows Real needs to win this, it is hardly hidden from the odds compilers and the betting public.

If anything it will be priced defensively, because the bookies know every ice cream around the world will want to bet on Real.

Norwich and Middlesborough needed to win their games yesterday desperately. How did they fare?

Although I agree with what you're saying, isn't it the same as the very first bet posted on this thread?

The market knows etc, same with loads of bets/odds on here.

The first bet posted on this thread was a suggestion for a bet on Michel Hazanavicius to win the Best Director Oscar at 5/8 when the prices first appeared.

By Oscar night he was 1/12 and duly picked up the award.

You are going to have to explain how this is the same as backing Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo 15 minutes before kick off.

It seems to be to be the same old 'would you have backed Real Madrid at home at 1/4 in the same game?' as another rec has been put up on a big name team in a tv game on the road.  Teams like Madrid always look more sexy on the road as they go off at bigger prices which seem appealing.  They do so for a reason, because they are on the road.

I have no idea if the 8/11 was value or not.  My question, as usual but very importantly, would have been would you have had the same bet on Madrid at 1/4 if they were at home in the same game with everything else equal.  If he thinks the 1/4 has the same edge in the bet then there is no problem.  The vast majority of times though punters in this situation wouldn't be as keen to steam into the 1/4 which usually shows the lack of edge in most of these types of bet.

I am not of the same opinion as many saying markets are always correct close to kick off.  They can be, and are more likely to be than at any time during the formation of any market, but they can also be wrong for various reasons.  As Camel says in this spot it would be rare that Madrid would be going off too big in a late Sunday tv game when there is little else for the wagons to smash into to get out on the weekend.

I think it is important we keep asking questions regarding bets and keep focusing on the original purpose of the fred which was making money finding the boss profitable bets over the long term.  Obviously having fun is a big part of the fred as well but it is a lot more fun when we are winning than breaking even or losing.

debating value could go on long into the night, and probably will :-) like i said, i came on here to learn, and having discussions about bets is all part of that process. some points made i've agreed with, others i haven't, but then its personal opinion and thats always going to be the case. to give the price a bit more context, barca and real both played this weekend. they are both often priced up stupidly short, so i rarely even look at their games. barca (1st, 78 points) played away to espanyol (10th, 42 points) this is a local derby so their price may be slightly enhanced as the game may be more "competitive". conspiracy theorists may say its a banker barca win as espanyol would roll over so a catalan side wins the league. either way,  i didn't punt barca but the price i can find on them to win from oddsportal was 1/4. this may not be gospel obvs, but they are normally pretty close. real (2nd, 76 points) played away to celta vigo (9th, 42 points) and were 3/4. i understand that the general public overbet these teams, and they are normally priced up accordingly, but i thought (and still feel, for my sins, haha) they were too big. the "would you back them at 1/4 at home" reasoning, they were 1/7 at home to beat celta (no, i wasn't on )

http://www.oddsportal.com/search/results/:W8mj7MDD/

[Omm]

I've been driving all night, and really don't want to get into Monday morning fighting, but I do think your treatment of Nellburg is a little harsh.

Maybe the bet wasn't "valutastic" but its no different to a raft of saturday football bets put up every week, or when Tikay says he fancies a punt. No one has a go then.

I totally accept that probably every bet Argue has put up has value in it, but not everyone has the staking power to get involved in a bunch of 1-20 shots, and so search in other places.

I think one concept, akin to the value concept, we tend to pass over, is risk and reward, which maybe suits the mindset of ur average Fred member, a little better.


Drum roll for the inevitable sledging.........

Bit off the mark there Adz, "treatment of Nellburg" is def not the right phrase, Camel was absolutely fine to question the bet and I would guarentee if you asked most of Fred who got on the answer would be very few. If it wasn't questioned then nobody would learn. I agree that it does happen too much on Fred but if it was questioned every time then we would soon decend into anarchy again. Everyone's opinion on sports betting seems to be different and that's not gonna change anytime soon. however if betfair is the price we judge against then what was it for that match (I don't know) that will then tell us if it was truly value or not.