Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Rumours that Jokanovic and Watford are very far apart on contract talks.  That would be an early blow to survival hopes imo.

[Doobs]

Where does betting on correct scores on same logic end
Have a bet on correct score in Chelsea game tonight?

completely different

there are around 25 feasible correct scores in a football match

here there are 8 possible outcomes 4-0 4-1 4-2 and 4-3 either way. can narrow that down further too, most often, by excluding 4-0 so when taking a view dutching a couple of results becomes a possibility

I have just added the correct score odds on the Warriors win and we get 94%.  So unless we have taken a view that the 4-0 and 4-3 odds are quite a bit out, we can just take the 1/8 and get better.  It feels like we are just saying 4-1 and 4-2 are the most likely combibations therefore we bet.  But the bookies know the most likely outcomes, hence why one of these is favourite and the other is 2nd favourite.  

[arbboy]

Where does betting on correct scores on same logic end
Have a bet on correct score in Chelsea game tonight?

completely different

there are around 25 feasible correct scores in a football match

here there are 8 possible outcomes 4-0 4-1 4-2 and 4-3 either way. can narrow that down further too, most often, by excluding 4-0 so when taking a view dutching a couple of results becomes a possibility

I have just added the correct score odds on the Warriors win and we get 94%.  So unless we have taken a view that the 4-0 and 4-3 odds are quite a bit out, we can just take the 1/8 and get better.  It feels like we are just saying 4-1 and 4-2 are the most likely combibations therefore we bet.  But the bookies know the most likely outcomes, hence why one of these is favourite and the other is 2nd favourite.  

See yesterday's post about wanting to take on GS at the prices please.  Assume it has been missed.

[TightEnd]

Where does betting on correct scores on same logic end
Have a bet on correct score in Chelsea game tonight?

completely different

there are around 25 feasible correct scores in a football match

here there are 8 possible outcomes 4-0 4-1 4-2 and 4-3 either way. can narrow that down further too, most often, by excluding 4-0 so when taking a view dutching a couple of results becomes a possibility

I have just added the correct score odds on the Warriors win and we get 94%.  So unless we have taken a view that the 4-0 and 4-3 odds are quite a bit out, we can just take the 1/8 and get better.  It feels like we are just saying 4-1 and 4-2 are the most likely combibations therefore we bet.  But the bookies know the most likely outcomes, hence why one of these is favourite and the other is 2nd favourite. 

See yesterday's post about wanting to take on GS at the prices please.  Assume it has been missed.

it was missed. just seen it. if it is edited in afterwards there is no guarantee i am going back to check past pages and spot it i am afraid

[TightEnd]

nba last 4

cavs v hawks

golden state v rockets


i've watched a bit of nba this year, never having previously done so

i think golden state will beat the rockets comfortably. cavs probably win a tight series


should we have a stab at the warriors series correct score..4-1/4-2?

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/western-conference/series-correct-score

houston are only there because of a) Harden b) an almighty Clippers choke. not the same calibre of team as golden state

 

Just to add balance Houston were seeded 2nd in the West and had home court advantage v Clippers in the last round.  They were the 2nd best team in the regular season in the West despite Harden having to carry the load for big parts of it.  Howard missed big chunks of the season.  There is no doubt that GS are the most likely team to win the nba but i think their prices for the series/outright seem very very skinny to me.  Houston won the most brutal division in the nba with no easy games at all in it on merit to get their 2nd seeding.  GS rely so heavily on 3 point shooting which is a lot less swingy when you are playing the poorer teams than the best 4 teams in the league.  Memphis found a way to slow them right down at times in the last series. 

I know GS have all the stats (4-0 head to head in reg season, biggest point diff in reg season etcetc).  They look like champions but there is an old saying in the NBA you live and die by the 3.  Houston shoot the three as good as most teams in the league so this is going to be a high octane series with plenty of scoring.  Spots like that don't make me want to rush out and back a team at 1/8 to win the series even with home court advantage and all the stats which fit.   They have a rookie coach and rookie players when it comes to this deep in the season and a bucket load of pressure on them to perform to their regular season levels.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Recommend £50 singles on Atlanta 9/1 and Houston 14/1 both hills amongst others.  I really want to take on GS at the prices.  Both are under on bf as well for reasonable money.  Big % of the outright book with the firms is taken up by them being 'full' of the Cavs both ante post and just in general.  Creates a nice positive ev spot here for us instead of laying GS on the machine and allows it commission free as well.

shows what little i know. thought GSW were good things. best team by a mile that i tried to watch etc. lol sigh

20 May 2015 - NBA - Championship Winner 2014/15 - Championship Winner

Atlanta Hawks @ 9/1

Stake : £50.00

20 May 2015 - NBA - Championship Winner 2014/15 - Championship Winner

Houston Rockets @ 14/1

Stake : £50.00

[arbboy]

nba last 4

cavs v hawks

golden state v rockets


i've watched a bit of nba this year, never having previously done so

i think golden state will beat the rockets comfortably. cavs probably win a tight series


should we have a stab at the warriors series correct score..4-1/4-2?

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/western-conference/series-correct-score

houston are only there because of a) Harden b) an almighty Clippers choke. not the same calibre of team as golden state

 

Just to add balance Houston were seeded 2nd in the West and had home court advantage v Clippers in the last round.  They were the 2nd best team in the regular season in the West despite Harden having to carry the load for big parts of it.  Howard missed big chunks of the season.  There is no doubt that GS are the most likely team to win the nba but i think their prices for the series/outright seem very very skinny to me.  Houston won the most brutal division in the nba with no easy games at all in it on merit to get their 2nd seeding.  GS rely so heavily on 3 point shooting which is a lot less swingy when you are playing the poorer teams than the best 4 teams in the league.  Memphis found a way to slow them right down at times in the last series. 

I know GS have all the stats (4-0 head to head in reg season, biggest point diff in reg season etcetc).  They look like champions but there is an old saying in the NBA you live and die by the 3.  Houston shoot the three as good as most teams in the league so this is going to be a high octane series with plenty of scoring.  Spots like that don't make me want to rush out and back a team at 1/8 to win the series even with home court advantage and all the stats which fit.   They have a rookie coach and rookie players when it comes to this deep in the season and a bucket load of pressure on them to perform to their regular season levels.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Recommend £50 singles on Atlanta 9/1 and Houston 14/1 both hills amongst others.  I really want to take on GS at the prices.  Both are under on bf as well for reasonable money.  Big % of the outright book with the firms is taken up by them being 'full' of the Cavs both ante post and just in general.  Creates a nice positive ev spot here for us instead of laying GS on the machine and allows it commission free as well.

shows what little i know. thought GSW were good things. best team by a mile that i tried to watch etc. lol sigh

20 May 2015 - NBA - Championship Winner 2014/15 - Championship Winner

Atlanta Hawks @ 9/1

Stake : £50.00

20 May 2015 - NBA - Championship Winner 2014/15 - Championship Winner

Houston Rockets @ 14/1

Stake : £50.00

They are there is no doubt about that.  What have they beat so far in the play offs though?  Nothing really.  Probably the 2 worst Western teams to make the play offs.  They are inexperienced at this level both coaching and playing wise and carry huge pressure and hype and their game style revolves massively around 3 point shooting which as stated previously is the most swingy style of offense over a short series.  Think that is more than enough to take them on at the price.  Harden has a lot of anger in his play right now about not getting the MVP when he should have done in the reg season as he carried his team way more than Curry did.

[arbboy]

Tighty what are our positions on Burnley to finish bottom of the epl?

[TightEnd]

Tighty what are our positions on Burnley to finish bottom of the epl?

£50 at 5/2

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

Ok can we flip it and put the whole £125 profit on QPR to finish bottom at 8/15 please?  I think this is a cracking bet given Leics are nearly that price to beat QPR anyway.  I appreciate there are GD issues etc but having done some calcs on this i can't have QPR anywhere near 8/15 to finish bottom.  They were 4/5 and 8/11 earlier in the week as well which is disappointing to have missed.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

Ok can we flip it and put the whole £125 profit on QPR to finish bottom at 8/15 please?  I think this is a cracking bet given Leics are nearly that price to beat QPR anyway.  I appreciate there are GD issues etc but having done some calcs on this i can't have QPR anywhere near 8/15 to finish bottom.  They were 4/5 and 8/11 earlier in the week as well which is disappointing to have missed.

did you know that the Leicester 25 man squad received a £5m bonus for avoiding the drop?

ok, they have another bonus clause...£6m for finishing 14th or higher in the league, which they will do if they win on saturday

no end of season half-heartedness here.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

Ok can we flip it and put the whole £125 profit on QPR to finish bottom at 8/15 please?  I think this is a cracking bet given Leics are nearly that price to beat QPR anyway.  I appreciate there are GD issues etc but having done some calcs on this i can't have QPR anywhere near 8/15 to finish bottom.  They were 4/5 and 8/11 earlier in the week as well which is disappointing to have missed.

did you know that the Leicester 25 man squad received a £5m bonus for avoiding the drop?

ok, they have another bonus clause...£6m for finishing 14th or higher in the league, which they will do if they win on saturday

no end of season half-heartedness here.

I didn't know that and i was wondering what state they would be in as i saw this morning they have had their end of season bash this week.  That makes the bet even stronger and will explain why they are being so heavily backed on Saturday.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

Ok can we flip it and put the whole £125 profit on QPR to finish bottom at 8/15 please?  I think this is a cracking bet given Leics are nearly that price to beat QPR anyway.  I appreciate there are GD issues etc but having done some calcs on this i can't have QPR anywhere near 8/15 to finish bottom.  They were 4/5 and 8/11 earlier in the week as well which is disappointing to have missed.

did you know that the Leicester 25 man squad received a £5m bonus for avoiding the drop?

ok, they have another bonus clause...£6m for finishing 14th or higher in the league, which they will do if they win on saturday

no end of season half-heartedness here.

I didn't know that and i was wondering what state they would be in as i saw this morning they have had their end of season bash this week.  That makes the bet even stronger and will explain why they are being so heavily backed on Saturday.

end of season bash is always monday before the end of the season. it is for most clubs before the last game as so many players leave for their countries etc soon as the last game is over, difficult to organise after the last game

[TightEnd]

Premier League 2014/2015 - Main Markets
To Finish Bottom
   QPR    8/15    
Total stake   £ 125.00
Estimated return   £ 191.67
Full stake   £ 125.00
Full estimated return   £ 191.67

[DungBeetle]

Does anybody like Derby next season in Championship?  It's Skybet so we can't do it for Fred, and market is not fully formed.

I can't help feeling their season was trashed because their strikers got injured at the wrong time and by the time they returned they were in a tailspin.  I thought they were so impressive before March. 

They are 11-1 to win the league and 10/3 to be promoted.   Market not fully formed (due to 3 of the runners not being known) but I can't see them going off as long as that, especially after a few signings. 

Thoughts?

[arbboy]

Does anybody like Derby next season in Championship?  It's Skybet so we can't do it for Fred, and market is not fully formed.

I can't help feeling their season was trashed because their strikers got injured at the wrong time and by the time they returned they were in a tailspin.  I thought they were so impressive before March.  

They are 11-1 to win the league and 10/3 to be promoted.   Market not fully formed (due to 3 of the runners not being known) but I can't see them going off as long as that, especially after a few signings.  

Thoughts?

What's going to happen to the gaffer?  Bent/Hughes?  Does seem big though assuming Hull come down with the other 2 'small' clubs from the EPL as a 'bigger' club in Mboro/Norwich leave the championship via the play offs.

As a sideline i am always amazed no firm offers 1/4 1,2,3,4 ew terms on the lower leagues.  24 runner hcaps effectively (esp the championship which is going to be 10/1 the field)