Tips for Tikay

[mulhuzz]

Forest, Leeds, Blackburn, Wolves, Brentford, Ipswich, much improved Bham 2nd half of last season, plus all 3 promoted teams all big runners/will go off too short.  Hull will surely be favs if they keep Bruce in charge with the parachute cash?

I would happily bet 8/1 the field if i was a layer.  What price would you make Sunderland and/or Newcastle if they come down?

Sunderland or Newcastle 5/1 maybe?   

if we go down we are way more likely to do a Fulham than come straight back up. I'd be laying 5/1 all the good long day.

[arbboy]

I would be 7/2 sunderland.  Newcastle would depend massively on the gaffer.

[DungBeetle]

I would be 7/2 sunderland.

Will they be that short?  The last time QPR came down everyone raved they were still a premier league team (Green, Zamora, Johnson, Wright Phillips, Barton, Assou-Ekkoto etc).  I know history tells they weren't all that, but I think they went off best price 11/2.

[mulhuzz]

I would be 7/2 sunderland.  Newcastle would depend massively on the gaffer.

apparently Adovacaat will leave regardless as he doesn't like the North East?

[mulhuzz]

and as for nufc, I can write the two press releases for you now:

'John Carver has managed to retain the club's premiership position and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of consolidating our premiership position'

'John Carver took over the team at a difficult point, and whilst the club are disappointed to have been relegated, we believe John is the right man for the job and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of returning to the Premiership at the first time of asking'

I might be a cynic, but I'd be very bullish on Carver.

[DMorgan]

Rose-tinted as they're my team but I wouldn't rule out Brentford at 16/1

While everyone is shaking their head at Warburton being shown the door, the maths based system that he wasn't on board with is already doing pretty well with FC Midtjylland in the Danish Superliga. They've won it with 4 games to spare under the same system that will be fully implemented this summer. The man that Benham installed to oversee the Danish project, Rasmus Ankerson, was appointed co-director of football with Brentford last week. New head coaches have been interviewed and theres a standout candidate to the point where the bookies won't put up a next manager market so we'll see how that shakes down.

Obviously the Danish Superliga isn't the Champtionship but with planning permission for a new stadium too I think that Brendford are certainly a club trending upwards. Lots to unfold still with key players. Jota has drawn interest from Leicester and Pritchard will likely get another good look from Spurs with talk of him getting a go for them this weekend but if we're looking to oppose the top of the market then Brentford could have a decent amount of upside.

[Tal]

My instinct is Pritchard will stay at spurs this season. We'd have to get some great business in the summer for that to change. A few midfielders will be shown the door and we have needs in defence and up front that must take priority, meaning Pritchard could move up to Eriksen's backup as a false 10.

That said, the championship doesn't feel as open as previous years and I wouldn't want to lay 16/1 on Benham knowing what he's doing!

[Chompy]

I think Forest/Blackburn have embargoes, so unless you like their current squads can't see them being near the head of the market.  Wolves perhaps depending on transfer activity.  Brentford/Ipswich will go off 16/1 shots imo.  Birmingham/Leeds 25-1?

Bristol City might be an interesting runner as they seem to be thinking big with their stadium expansion.

Will be all over Brizzle on the handicap next season, oi oi!

[Shrimper1]

Maths question for Doobs (or anyone else more intelligent than myself!).  This is frying my brain.  Help needed.

Right.  Top NE club.  Assume all my calcs are correct for what i am going to say to keep it simple.  I know there are potential GD issues with this which i have ignored for now as they are not that important in most spots.

If Sunderland lose tonight to Arsenal the following prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 43%
Newcastle 48.4%
Hull 8.6%




If sunderland draw tonight (16.7% chance) the prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 61.8%
Newcastle 38.2%

If Sunderland win tonight (8.3% chance) Sunderland have won this market prior to Sunday's games.

What are the prices of each of the 3 teams in the top NE market pre tonight's game assuming my calcs?

No one else has had a go and been doing this on the phone and would need to go through figures again and wouldn't be 100% confident but using your calls I came out with:

Sunderland - tad shorter than 10/11
Newcastle 6-4
Hull 14-1

[class]

Another Shrimper on here, surely not?!?!?

 

[horseplayer]

I think Forest/Blackburn have embargoes, so unless you like their current squads can't see them being near the head of the market.  Wolves perhaps depending on transfer activity.  Brentford/Ipswich will go off 16/1 shots imo.  Birmingham/Leed



Bristol City might be an interesting runner as they seem to be thinking big with their stadium expansion.

Will be all over Brizzle on the handicap next season, oi oi!

Aarons Wilbrahamsss ftw

Think their is a massive price on a team to go down if the sky bet league 1 tissue price is correct

Wait for more firms though

[arbboy]

Maths question for Doobs (or anyone else more intelligent than myself!).  This is frying my brain.  Help needed.

Right.  Top NE club.  Assume all my calcs are correct for what i am going to say to keep it simple.  I know there are potential GD issues with this which i have ignored for now as they are not that important in most spots.

If Sunderland lose tonight to Arsenal the following prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 43%
Newcastle 48.4%
Hull 8.6%




If sunderland draw tonight (16.7% chance) the prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 61.8%
Newcastle 38.2%

If Sunderland win tonight (8.3% chance) Sunderland have won this market prior to Sunday's games.

What are the prices of each of the 3 teams in the top NE market pre tonight's game assuming my calcs?

No one else has had a go and been doing this on the phone and would need to go through figures again and wouldn't be 100% confident but using your calls I came out with:

Sunderland - tad shorter than 10/11
Newcastle 6-4
Hull 14-1

Cheers Shrimper.  Doobs pm'd me with his figures which were similar.  I thought Sunderland might be a bit shorter than that but on review it looks about right.

[Doobs]

and as for nufc, I can write the two press releases for you now:

'John Carver has managed to retain the club's premiership position and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of consolidating our premiership position'

'John Carver took over the team at a difficult point, and whilst the club are disappointed to have been relegated, we believe John is the right man for the job and has the fully backing of the board to take the team forward in the new season with the aim of returning to the Premiership at the first time of asking'

I might be a cynic, but I'd be very bullish on Carver.

I can see why he would appoint Carver this season, but there seems zero chance that he stays as manager.  You could do a cost of coach vs cost of relegation calc and you aren't ever employing Carver.  When he was appointed this year the true price must have been 50/1, next year it would be small single figures with him staying.  And that huge bag of cash in his back pocket doesn't suggest Ashley is a complete dimwit.

[Doobs]

Maths question for Doobs (or anyone else more intelligent than myself!).  This is frying my brain.  Help needed.

Right.  Top NE club.  Assume all my calcs are correct for what i am going to say to keep it simple.  I know there are potential GD issues with this which i have ignored for now as they are not that important in most spots.

If Sunderland lose tonight to Arsenal the following prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 43%
Newcastle 48.4%
Hull 8.6%




If sunderland draw tonight (16.7% chance) the prices to 100% for this market per my calcs are:

Sunderland 61.8%
Newcastle 38.2%

If Sunderland win tonight (8.3% chance) Sunderland have won this market prior to Sunday's games.

What are the prices of each of the 3 teams in the top NE market pre tonight's game assuming my calcs?

No one else has had a go and been doing this on the phone and would need to go through figures again and wouldn't be 100% confident but using your calls I came out with:

Sunderland - tad shorter than 10/11
Newcastle 6-4
Hull 14-1

I have already posted the result to Arbboy, but I get

Evens Sunderland is good, 20/21 is bad.
Newcastle 11/8 is good, not that you can get it.
Hull 15/1 would be good

I didn't put it on the board as I wanted to give him first go at Betdaq (I haven't got an account)

[BigAdz]

My mate who is Cotterills best man, the same guy I mentioned pre season who informed me what a bet they were, suggested that the 5/4 Brizzle to top half was the way he was playing next year.

Thing is, I can't find where he put the bet on, and he is away this week!