Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

I don't think it is at all clear that the double points finish is better value.  (2/7)^2 is 0.08.  So if the two bets weren't related, 12/1 would be about right.  Obviously if one force india does well, the other should too, but if the first force india gets in the top 10, that is only 9 places that the 2nd car can go for.  Well in reality the number of positions they can get in the top 10 is a lot less, because even if they do improve significantly, they aren't going to be as quick as (at least) the top 6.  We are effectively betting about evens that the 2nd Force India gets a top 10 if the first one does.  That definitely feels tight to me.  Overall it feels that the 6/1 is less likely to be value than the separate 5/2s.

If you do this bet, I'd just stick to the separate singles.     

Good post. Same as backing teams in doubles to be relegated bookies love laying these bets because they are negatively correlated and they offer the true double price assuming there is no correlation.  This makes it appear sexy to the naked eye for the average rec.

[arbboy]

bwins 3/10 arsenal to top 4 next year is a comical price.  Impossible to get any decent amount on which is a shame.  They are not a book for short prices.

Alongside the lolapool thread i am happy to offer 3/1 scousers for a top 4 finish for next season (best price 11/4 and under on bf for small money) on credit to people i know/are well known on blonde.

[Marky147]

bwins 3/10 arsenal to top 4 next year is a comical price.  Impossible to get any decent amount on which is a shame.  They are not a book for short prices.

Alongside the lolapool thread i am happy to offer 3/1 scousers for a top 4 finish for next season (best price 11/4 and under on bf for small money) on credit to people i know/are well known on blonde.

Tempting fate there, they'll probably end up winning the league if you get too much action.

[DungBeetle]

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

I don't think it is at all clear that the double points finish is better value.  (2/7)^2 is 0.08.  So if the two bets weren't related, 12/1 would be about right.  Obviously if one force india does well, the other should too, but if the first force india gets in the top 10, that is only 9 places that the 2nd car can go for.  Well in reality the number of positions they can get in the top 10 is a lot less, because even if they do improve significantly, they aren't going to be as quick as (at least) the top 6.  We are effectively betting about evens that the 2nd Force India gets a top 10 if the first one does.  That definitely feels tight to me.  Overall it feels that the 6/1 is less likely to be value than the separate 5/2s.

If you do this bet, I'd just stick to the separate singles.     

Good post. Same as backing teams in doubles to be relegated bookies love laying these bets because they are negatively correlated and they offer the true double price assuming there is no correlation.  This makes it appear sexy to the naked eye for the average rec.

Agree - but specific to F1 I think there is an argument that the "one car goes well at the track, the other one does" factor might outweight the negative correlation of the sister car taking up a top 10 spot? 

[DungBeetle]

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

I don't think it is at all clear that the double points finish is better value.  (2/7)^2 is 0.08.  So if the two bets weren't related, 12/1 would be about right.  Obviously if one force india does well, the other should too, but if the first force india gets in the top 10, that is only 9 places that the 2nd car can go for.  Well in reality the number of positions they can get in the top 10 is a lot less, because even if they do improve significantly, they aren't going to be as quick as (at least) the top 6.  We are effectively betting about evens that the 2nd Force India gets a top 10 if the first one does.  That definitely feels tight to me.  Overall it feels that the 6/1 is less likely to be value than the separate 5/2s.

If you do this bet, I'd just stick to the separate singles.    

Good post. Same as backing teams in doubles to be relegated bookies love laying these bets because they are negatively correlated and they offer the true double price assuming there is no correlation.  This makes it appear sexy to the naked eye for the average rec.

Agree - but specific to F1 I think there is an argument that the "one car goes well at the track, the other one does" factor might outweight the negative correlation of the sister car taking up a top 10 spot?  

Scrap that - didn't see the price - 6/1.  That factor has been plenty factored in already!

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £109.23

Outstanding Bets £1812.74

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=25

A rough day yesterday, losing £120

- £100 Timea Bacsinszky was 6-4 and 3-2 up on an out of sorts Serena Williams. With a 5.5 game headstart, things were looking good. She proceeded to lose the next ten games on the trot



-£20 Widnes were 12-0 up on Hull, who then proceeded to score 25 points unanswered to win and sink another handicap bet

ongoing positions

in game one of the NBA finals the Cavs led for most of the game, then hit 1 of their last 13 shots and were taken into overtime at Oakland, and Golden State prevailed despite a huge game from Lebron. Worryingly too Kyrie Irving's knee gave out near the end too

Click to see full-size image.

in the MLB Boston took a 4-0 lead against Minnesota and lost 8-4. The White Sox and the Rangers went into extra innings and the Rangers walked off 2-1 winners despite a ten strikeout performance from rookie pitcher Carlos Rodon

[DungBeetle]

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

Can I ask why the Force India should be evens to get to Q3?  From what I can see they have had 12 qualifying attempts this season and got into Q3 twice.  Have they had major upgrades or are they particularly suited to this circuit.  Otherwise 4/1 looks about right to me. 

[TightEnd]

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

Can I ask why the Force India should be evens to get to Q3?  From what I can see they have had 12 qualifying attempts this season and got into Q3 twice.  Have they had major upgrades or are they particularly suited to this circuit.  Otherwise 4/1 looks about right to me. 

the major upgrades are due next race in Austria, possibly the race after

Perez really suits this circuit, has done well here

but on the current pace Q3 on a track with long straights? which team are we thinking 1 or 2 of them bump out of Q3?

mercedes, ferrari, williams (back to form here?), red bull is 8 of the spots barring mechanical or penalty dramas.....lotus should be quick so both looks a tough one?

i see McLaren are spending 3 of their engine tokens too (which makes sense as you want to spend them at a track you can benefit from them, unlike monaco or hungary say...)

Peter I am not around tomorrow so any bets need to be with me by 9am saturday or else wait til sunday, please

[TightEnd]

William Hill have Team Dragon Knight vs Team Dignitas as both 5/6

Pinnacle are closer to 4/5 for Dignitas and evens for Team Dragon Knight.

I reckon this should be an easy win for Dignitas as again, TDK are playing with their 3 substitute players and are having problems with their main roster.

TDK's other match is against Enemy who are 4/6, can leave that one though as Enemy are also a new team this season.

Dignitas 5/6!

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

07 Jun 2015 - Team Dragon Knights v Team Dignitas - Match Betting

Team Dignitas @ 5/6

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
45.83
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001336/F
Total Stake : £25.00

[TightEnd]

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

Ricciardo

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/canadian-grand-prix/daniel-ricciardo-to-be-classified

i can't use winner, titan, betway, unibet at 4/1 or bwin

--

the reach Q3 bets. clearly it shouldn't be near evens and £25 is a bit optimistic on tikay's account for F1 sub-markets with ladbrokes



Single - 2015 Canadian Grand Prix

S Perez - |Qualifying| - |To reach Q3|

Odds: 4/1

1 lines at £12.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £12.00

Potential Return:£60.00

Time : 5/6/2015-09:49

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000930

if you want me to do Hulk as well, shout when you see this and the comments above.

--

points finishes done seperately as advised by others

no stake recommended, so this can be increased if necessary

 Race Markets Sergio Perez (Points Finish - Race) Odds: 5/2 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  35.00

 Race Markets Nico Hulkenberg (Points Finish - Race) Odds: 5/2 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  35.00

[TightEnd]

Mens semi finals day at the French

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens

Oaks day at Epsom

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/epsom


open for business if there is any.....

[ripple11]

William Hill have Team Dragon Knight vs Team Dignitas as both 5/6

Pinnacle are closer to 4/5 for Dignitas and evens for Team Dragon Knight.

I reckon this should be an easy win for Dignitas as again, TDK are playing with their 3 substitute players and are having problems with their main roster.

TDK's other match is against Enemy who are 4/6, can leave that one though as Enemy are also a new team this season.

Dignitas 5/6!

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

Clueless about this.... so obviously on!

Bet was referred to trader!.........ohhhhh never had that before

[sonour]

Tighty,

I can do the other £13 on Perez to reach Q3 if you wish ?

[sonour]

Ladbrokes doing free bet if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the Derby. Up to £25. The free bet is for use on football.

[sonour]

Ladbrokes BOG now 5-6pm as well as 1-2pm