Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Tighty,

I can do the other £13 on Perez to reach Q3 if you wish ?

why not, thank you

[Actonbeech3]

Mens semi finals day at the French

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens

Oaks day at Epsom

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/epsom


open for business if there is any.....

Posted this on the racing thread amongst two other fancies of mine......Might be a nice sweat at a good price for the Oaks...

In the Oaks i have backed Star of Seville at 25 and 28/1, and im not going to desert her now even if Frankie has and the form book says it needs to improve. Extra distance not a problem in my humble opinion, Gosden wouldnt be taking a chance here if he didnt belive it stays. 2.5pts each way at 16/1.

[TightEnd]

Mens semi finals day at the French

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens

Oaks day at Epsom

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/epsom


open for business if there is any.....

Posted this on the racing thread amongst two other fancies of mine......Might be a nice sweat at a good price for the Oaks...

In the Oaks i have backed Star of Seville at 25 and 28/1, and im not going to desert her now even if Frankie has and the form book says it needs to improve. Extra distance not a problem in my humble opinion, Gosden wouldnt be taking a chance here if he didnt belive it stays. 2.5pts each way at 16/1.

i've made it the same size as the al naamah bet the other day

16:30 STAR OF SEVILLE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  220.00


well on the way to covering most of the field...!

[sonour]

Tighty,

I can do the other £13 on Perez to reach Q3 if you wish ?

why not, thank you

Booked

[Doobs]

Mens semi finals day at the French

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens

Oaks day at Epsom

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/epsom


open for business if there is any.....

Posted this on the racing thread amongst two other fancies of mine......Might be a nice sweat at a good price for the Oaks...

In the Oaks i have backed Star of Seville at 25 and 28/1, and im not going to desert her now even if Frankie has and the form book says it needs to improve. Extra distance not a problem in my humble opinion, Gosden wouldnt be taking a chance here if he didnt belive it stays. 2.5pts each way at 16/1.

i've made it the same size as the al naamah bet the other day

16:30 STAR OF SEVILLE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  220.00


well on the way to covering most of the field...!

is 20/1 with beteveryday and boyles for those who aren't on

[nellberg]

does murray take a set off djok? 4/6 murray to win at least a set, over 3.5 sets 8/11. he's priced up as more of a dog than nadal was, when in way better form. not a rec, more to start the debate ...

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/novak-djokovic-v-andy-murray/total-sets

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/novak-djokovic-v-andy-murray/to-win-a-set

[Doobs]

does murray take a set off djok? 4/6 murray to win at least a set, over 3.5 sets 8/11. he's priced up as more of a dog than nadal was, when in way better form. not a rec, more to start the debate ...

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/novak-djokovic-v-andy-murray/total-sets

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/novak-djokovic-v-andy-murray/to-win-a-set

I laid the 3-0 yesterday or the day before at about 5/4.  That seemed very good to me.  Murray is definitely a better player than he was last year.  His mum said so before the season started, he has said so and his improvement on clay is significant.  But Djokovic has won all those times in a row. 

I definitely wouldn't back Djokovic at 1/7, but we can only lay 1/5.  My feeling is that the streak isn't as meaningful as it would be if Murray's form hadn't markedly improved.   Hence the odds were wrong when I made my bet.  Now we can only get worse than I did, I am in two minds, and I already have a large Murray position personally.   I certainly wouldn't put thread off, and think it is still more likely to be a good price than not. 

[Tal]

Murray is 3/1 with bet every day to win the first set. He's 3/1 with Billy Mountain to win the second set.

If he's 0-2, he's a long price to win the third set (Djok is too good when he's ahead and Murray is...sometimes...a bit grumpy when losing), so we can park that.

We get even money on a 4/5 shot (the reverse of the Djok 3-0) by backing both and could scoop if he gets going.

Think I like this angle. Maths folk?

[Doobs]

Murray is 3/1 with bet every day to win the first set. He's 3/1 with Billy Mountain to win the second set.

If he's 0-2, he's a long price to win the third set (Djok is too good when he's ahead and Murray is...sometimes...a bit grumpy when losing), so we can park that.

We get even money on a 4/5 shot (the reverse of the Djok 3-0) by backing both and could scoop if he gets going.

Think I like this angle. Maths folk?

So you are saying set 2 is value at 3/1 and set 3 you wouldn't back him if you got 20/1?  That doesn't feel consistent to me.

I'd definitely back 3/1 set 1 over 3/1 set 2 if we have any angle.  Set 2 does seem harder if Djokovic has won the first.  I am not sure the odds will change as much of Murray wins set 1.  I have no stats to back this up though

[Tal]

Murray is 3/1 with bet every day to win the first set. He's 3/1 with Billy Mountain to win the second set.

If he's 0-2, he's a long price to win the third set (Djok is too good when he's ahead and Murray is...sometimes...a bit grumpy when losing), so we can park that.

We get even money on a 4/5 shot (the reverse of the Djok 3-0) by backing both and could scoop if he gets going.

Think I like this angle. Maths folk?

So you are saying set 2 is value at 3/1 and set 3 you wouldn't back him if you got 20/1?  That doesn't feel consistent to me.

I'd definitely back 3/1 set 1 over 3/1 set 2 if we have any angle.  Set 2 does seem harder if Djokovic has won the first.  I am not sure the odds will change as much of Murray wins set 1.  I have no stats to back this up though

There is obviously a point where set three becomes value but it's going to be a lot bigger than the 2/1 you can get now. Happy to review that.

Tight 2.42/2.44 on the machine for Djokovic 3-0 fwiw.

As to waiting for set 1 to be over, if the price offers value now (big if, but that's the question), we should take it now, on the understanding that it could go up or down, depending on the play of the game.


Just putting this up as a thought, really.

[Doobs]

Murray is 3/1 with bet every day to win the first set. He's 3/1 with Billy Mountain to win the second set.

If he's 0-2, he's a long price to win the third set (Djok is too good when he's ahead and Murray is...sometimes...a bit grumpy when losing), so we can park that.

We get even money on a 4/5 shot (the reverse of the Djok 3-0) by backing both and could scoop if he gets going.

Think I like this angle. Maths folk?

So you are saying set 2 is value at 3/1 and set 3 you wouldn't back him if you got 20/1?  That doesn't feel consistent to me.

I'd definitely back 3/1 set 1 over 3/1 set 2 if we have any angle.  Set 2 does seem harder if Djokovic has won the first.  I am not sure the odds will change as much of Murray wins set 1.  I have no stats to back this up though

There is obviously a point where set three becomes value but it's going to be a lot bigger than the 2/1 you can get now. Happy to review that.

Tight 2.42/2.44 on the machine for Djokovic 3-0 fwiw


Just putting this up as a thought, really.

There is only one bookmaker and the exchange offering set 3 betting so it is meaningless that it is 2/1.

I can't get 3/1 the first set, having just looked.  So it feels like we have something but it is priced in.  Set 1 is 11/4, set 2 3/1 and set 3 should probably be slightly bigger again. 

Not sure what this all means, but it probably means that it is bad to gloss over the chance of an Andy Murray win in set 3 when 2-0 down.   The 1/3 Djokovic in set 3 that betway are offering may well be too big though?

[Doobs]

Bold Lass probably worth a tenner ew for the first at Epsom on Friday if you can get the 10-1 with Fred or Tote

Currently /11-2 with Lads and Hills which probably a better reflection of price in a race where this improver looks to have a decent e/w chance

Currently 5/1 best.  Spot on Adz.

[Doobs]

Bold Lass probably worth a tenner ew for the first at Epsom on Friday if you can get the 10-1 with Fred or Tote

Currently /11-2 with Lads and Hills which probably a better reflection of price in a race where this improver looks to have a decent e/w chance

Currently 5/1 best.  Spot on Adz.

Unlucky fella, what happened at the start? Saw she was way back but I didnt see why.

[Peter-27]

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

Can I ask why the Force India should be evens to get to Q3?  From what I can see they have had 12 qualifying attempts this season and got into Q3 twice.  Have they had major upgrades or are they particularly suited to this circuit.  Otherwise 4/1 looks about right to me. 

Of course you can 

The Canadian track should really suit Force India, possibly more so than any other circuit on the calendar. The Mercedes engine provides the speed down the straight, but it goes deeper than that. Although the Force India car is poor aerodynamically (lacking physical development compared to other teams), it does work the air well and is efficient. It's a hard concept to explain; high aerodynamic efficiency and does not necessarily mean a car is good aerodynamically. This, coupled with Force India's superior traction out of slow corners (which we saw in Monaco) means that the team will be mega quick in the final sector which is essentially a long straight after a tight hairpin. They're going to be gaining time all the way down that straight and should have a considerable advantage in sector three. This will propel them up the field, and I expect it to be a coin toss between Force India, Lotus and Toro Rosso for positions 8th downwards in qualifying.

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

Can I ask why the Force India should be evens to get to Q3?  From what I can see they have had 12 qualifying attempts this season and got into Q3 twice.  Have they had major upgrades or are they particularly suited to this circuit.  Otherwise 4/1 looks about right to me. 

the major upgrades are due next race in Austria, possibly the race after

Perez really suits this circuit, has done well here

but on the current pace Q3 on a track with long straights? which team are we thinking 1 or 2 of them bump out of Q3?

mercedes, ferrari, williams (back to form here?), red bull is 8 of the spots barring mechanical or penalty dramas.....lotus should be quick so both looks a tough one?

i see McLaren are spending 3 of their engine tokens too (which makes sense as you want to spend them at a track you can benefit from them, unlike monaco or hungary say...)

Peter I am not around tomorrow so any bets need to be with me by 9am saturday or else wait til sunday, please

Mercedes, Ferrari, Williams (yes, back to form), Ricciardo, then three of Force India, Toro Rosso and Lotus. I expect Kvyat to struggle here, he still isn't comfortable breaking in his Red Bull.

Honda have spent engine tokens, as have Ferrari, but until the upgrades are dialled in and understood through on track data, they'll have no benefit at this race (unless they've found a huge amount of time which is extremely unlikely).

My pre-event Canadian GP bets:

To Reach Qualifying Session Three - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 4/1 with Fembrokes. I think Force India should get one car into Q3 this weekend, either way, 4/1 is far too high. This should be much closer to evens. Given the price being so far out of line, I suggest £25 on each.

Not To Finish The Race - Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with lots of bookies. The Renault engine will struggle on the demanding Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Suggest £10.

Need some advice on the points finish bets, all three prices are value - not sure which ones to bet on, if not all of them. Can we talk it out?

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg AND Sergio Perez @ 5/2 with various bookies AND/OR Force India Double Points - Yes @ 6/1 with Blose. The latter bet is better value than the first two, but obviously it's more unlikely.

Number of Finishers Odd/Even - I'm not sure if this is a suggestion or not, but curiously, the price on "even" is above evens (42/41) with Blose .. seems odd!

Ricciardo

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/canadian-grand-prix/daniel-ricciardo-to-be-classified

i can't use winner, titan, betway, unibet at 4/1 or bwin

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the reach Q3 bets. clearly it shouldn't be near evens and £25 is a bit optimistic on tikay's account for F1 sub-markets with ladbrokes



Single - 2015 Canadian Grand Prix

S Perez - |Qualifying| - |To reach Q3|

Odds: 4/1

1 lines at £12.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £12.00

Potential Return:£60.00

Time : 5/6/2015-09:49

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000930

if you want me to do Hulk as well, shout when you see this and the comments above.

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points finishes done seperately as advised by others

no stake recommended, so this can be increased if necessary

 Race Markets Sergio Perez (Points Finish - Race) Odds: 5/2 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  35.00

 Race Markets Nico Hulkenberg (Points Finish - Race) Odds: 5/2 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  35.00

Justification for Q3 bets is above, should be around evens. Still suggest £25 (if not limited!) on both Force Indiii  ).

£10 on the points finish bets is fine.

[Doobs]

Neil mentioned that oaks winner in his betting emporium piece.  The 100/1 price had gone, so I missed the value.  I showed good discipline...