Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Sweden play Montenegro later today in a game that the hosts could do with winning, given their two main rivals, Austria and Russia, play each other. The problem is, they've had an indifferent few games, a couple of injuries and, in most cases, a long season. They aren't scoring many, either: just seven in their qualifying games to-date.

Defensively, they're solid, but stodginess abounds when Montenegro play away. This has the hallmarks of an end-of-a-long-season grind of a game. Sweden should win it, but I can see them holding on to what they've got, rather than pushing for more. When they played in Montenegro, Ibra scored early and they conceded late for a 1-1 draw. Montenegro aren't going to score twice tonight. Sweden might, but I think there's a bet here.

Under 2.5 goals is 8/13 with most, but 8/11 with the Red Lot. Assuming we can only get tuppence on with them, BMU will offer 4/6.

Recommend £30 for £20.

I can't c and p, but the best odds were 1.729 on Matchbook

we have £30 to win £21.87 under 2.5 goals

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

I am getting slightly confused by the Ladbrokes odds setter for rugby league. They are constantly top priced for nearly all the players to score, and by quite some way. Today Wakefield play Salford in a battle of the 2 worst teams. Our friend Tom Johnstone plays and I make him around a 4/6 shot to score. Most firms are around the 5/6 mark, yet Ladbrokes are 11/8.

Suggest £20 Tom Johnstone to score a try @ 11/8 with Ladbrokes.

dhx

Of course Tighty will only put on the recommend but in a spot like this should we not be increasing our bet amount, no BF market to go against but Hector thinks it's a 4/6 shot, most firms are 5/6, shouldn't we be punishing the 11/8?

Def not a critism of Hector and of course we all have our own betting stakes, just questioning as more of a discussion really. Seems like such a great spot to punish the bookies for their errors, doesn't come along often.

the reason is pretty straightforward

the book of bets is just a framework so we can collectively see how the thread is doing. the important thing is that people get on seperately if they want to, at amounts they want to. not so much the results of the thread bet by bet

if it was said "x is going to recommend £y, but actually TforT will place £z because we really like it" then the onus falls on me (usually) or tikay to get those decisions right. we might not. Things start moving away from what is intended. 

far better (especially these days, when volumes are low most days, so we don't want more people to find a reason not to post) that people feel comfortable to recommend amounts they think are suitable

[horseplayer]

Peter not sure if you are about

Josip Ilicic could be your man

Negatives not a game with a high goals expectation

Positives scored 7 goals in the last month of the serie a season for Fiorentina and is a player who goes on little runs of form then disappears again

No idea what his spread minutes are but he starts and he is 20s (22 exchange) best price first scorer so presumably low enough...

[horseplayer]

I am in no way suggesting this is the best way to use this free bet btw but time is short if i have got the last few pages right

[arbboy]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload

Great article on the sports science/travel demands of the nba compared to other professional sports.  I have flipped my position on the Cavs fwiw and had the whole potential profit on GS at 2/7 to break even on the coup having backed Cavs at 7/2 (same as fred).  Would suggest fred does the same. 

[TightEnd]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload

Great article on the sports science/travel demands of the nba compared to other professional sports.  I have flipped my position on the Cavs fwiw and had the whole potential profit on GS at 2/7 to break even on the coup having backed Cavs at 7/2 (same as fred).  Would suggest fred does the same. 

We are guaranteed a profit on the e/w bet (half odds)

cavaliers   9/2   50            
Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2

what would you suggest at 2/7?

[arbboy]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload

Great article on the sports science/travel demands of the nba compared to other professional sports.  I have flipped my position on the Cavs fwiw and had the whole potential profit on GS at 2/7 to break even on the coup having backed Cavs at 7/2 (same as fred).  Would suggest fred does the same. 

We are guaranteed a profit on the e/w bet (half odds)

cavaliers   9/2   50            
Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2

what would you suggest at 2/7?

So we got £100 at 4/1 effectively on them to win (the place bet is settled so is irrelevant).  I would have £400 at 2/7 personally (that is what i have done).  Happy to just cover my bet for fred.  Assume they are both not mine.  I can't remember who placed them. 

[TightEnd]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload

Great article on the sports science/travel demands of the nba compared to other professional sports.  I have flipped my position on the Cavs fwiw and had the whole potential profit on GS at 2/7 to break even on the coup having backed Cavs at 7/2 (same as fred).  Would suggest fred does the same. 

We are guaranteed a profit on the e/w bet (half odds)

cavaliers   9/2   50            
Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2

what would you suggest at 2/7?

So we got £100 at 4/1 effectively on them to win (the place bet is settled so is irrelevant).  I would have £400 at 2/7 personally (that is what i have done).  Happy to just cover my bet for fred.  Assume they are both not mine.  I can't remember who placed them. 

they are yours (7 aug, 28 oct)

but no matter

this is awkward. £400 two days before royal ascot. let me look around the accounts.

[arbboy]

Holland going to the deciding  doubles rubber in the darts 1/4 finals now on sky sports 1.  Barney not playing well at all.  They look under the cosh as Scotland and England both played really well earlier.  MVG only averaged low 90s in his singles match as well

[arbboy]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload

Great article on the sports science/travel demands of the nba compared to other professional sports.  I have flipped my position on the Cavs fwiw and had the whole potential profit on GS at 2/7 to break even on the coup having backed Cavs at 7/2 (same as fred).  Would suggest fred does the same. 

We are guaranteed a profit on the e/w bet (half odds)

cavaliers   9/2   50            
Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2

what would you suggest at 2/7?

So we got £100 at 4/1 effectively on them to win (the place bet is settled so is irrelevant).  I would have £400 at 2/7 personally (that is what i have done).  Happy to just cover my bet for fred.  Assume they are both not mine.  I can't remember who placed them. 

they are yours (7 aug, 28 oct)

but no matter

this is awkward. £400 two days before royal ascot. let me look around the accounts.

Only skybet 2/7 and betfair (before commission). 

[TightEnd]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload

Great article on the sports science/travel demands of the nba compared to other professional sports.  I have flipped my position on the Cavs fwiw and had the whole potential profit on GS at 2/7 to break even on the coup having backed Cavs at 7/2 (same as fred).  Would suggest fred does the same. 

We are guaranteed a profit on the e/w bet (half odds)

cavaliers   9/2   50            
Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2

what would you suggest at 2/7?

So we got £100 at 4/1 effectively on them to win (the place bet is settled so is irrelevant).  I would have £400 at 2/7 personally (that is what i have done).  Happy to just cover my bet for fred.  Assume they are both not mine.  I can't remember who placed them. 

they are yours (7 aug, 28 oct)

but no matter

this is awkward. £400 two days before royal ascot. let me look around the accounts.

Only skybet 2/7 and betfair (before commission). 

i would have to do the bulk of it at 1/4 elsewhere.

[arbboy]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload

Great article on the sports science/travel demands of the nba compared to other professional sports.  I have flipped my position on the Cavs fwiw and had the whole potential profit on GS at 2/7 to break even on the coup having backed Cavs at 7/2 (same as fred).  Would suggest fred does the same. 

We are guaranteed a profit on the e/w bet (half odds)

cavaliers   9/2   50            
Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2

what would you suggest at 2/7?

So we got £100 at 4/1 effectively on them to win (the place bet is settled so is irrelevant).  I would have £400 at 2/7 personally (that is what i have done).  Happy to just cover my bet for fred.  Assume they are both not mine.  I can't remember who placed them. 

they are yours (7 aug, 28 oct)

but no matter

this is awkward. £400 two days before royal ascot. let me look around the accounts.

Only skybet 2/7 and betfair (before commission). 

i would have to do the bulk of it at 1/4 elsewhere.

Don't take 1/4.  Just hold the position if we can't get the best price.

[TightEnd]

ok i can't get 2/7 after commission, its tighter than 1/4 after comm

will hold it

** tikay if you see this please look at your pms **

"housekeeping"

[Peter-27]

Peter not sure if you are about

Josip Ilicic could be your man

Negatives not a game with a high goals expectation

Positives scored 7 goals in the last month of the serie a season for Fiorentina and is a player who goes on little runs of form then disappears again

No idea what his spread minutes are but he starts and he is 20s (22 exchange) best price first scorer so presumably low enough...

Sorry, was sleeping after watching the Le Mans race!

Any bet I put on will have to be for the 7:45 PM kick-offs.

[horseplayer]

Peter not sure if you are about

Josip Ilicic could be your man

Negatives not a game with a high goals expectation

Positives scored 7 goals in the last month of the serie a season for Fiorentina and is a player who goes on little runs of form then disappears again

No idea what his spread minutes are but he starts and he is 20s (22 exchange) best price first scorer so presumably low enough...

Sorry, was sleeping after watching the Le Mans race!

Any bet I put on will have to be for the 7:45 PM kick-offs.

#
Good job really plenty of goals tho surprisingly

Remind me which spread firm it is again? I will have a look at some very cheap goalscorer minutes if you like