Tips for Tikay

[Omm]

Morning all

Ascot has some nice races tomorrow.

3.40 is an each way dream.  You have an evens/odds on favourite and 3 horses at big prices at the bottom.  Whilst Tikay is otherwised engaged beating up some old duffers, we could back the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites each way and get value on each. Will just settle for Rizeena at 8/1 quarter first 3 with beteveryday and choral.  Bragging is 10/1 quarter first 3 with lads, pp, choral and shy.  Hopefully we get to keep 8 and can go 20 each way each.  Given the number of bookies we can probably wait to lunchtime to see if there are any non runners.  So long as we are close to Betfair at that time take what price we can get.  Ofc if one shortens horribly don't back it but each way terms means you can relax with 7/1 Rizeena and 9/1 Bragging.

5.00 pays quarter first 5 in several spots.  I assume we aren't going to lose enough to jeopardise this and we can go 20 e/w on GM Hopkins at 12/1 and get a free place.  Hills and fred offer this price so may as well hills mobile it.

5.35 this is a nice race with 17 in it.  Think we have to wait and hope we don't lose 2. witha short priced horse and a couple of big ones, we can hope we get 11/1 Jellicle Ball and quarter first 4.  I think 10 is ok, but don't go shorter.  Suggest 20 e/w

Cheers

seems to be a non runner in the 3:40

[doubleup]

As doobs said there is value in the hunt cup - Paddy P are going 6 places.  There prices aren't great but I've gone for Lincoln which although at 18-1 is less than the 20-1 generally available is the slightly better bet, due to the extra place.  Speculative and Spark Plug are also the better bets with the extra place although a point shorter.

I understand that, we all understand that, but you have done exactly the same. Have you just looked at oddschecker and compared the price vs betfair, or do these horse have merit on the basis of form, track, draw, trainer stats, running into form, good jockey, nice handicap mark, distance winners, ground has come right, first time headgear, other race conditions suit?

Get my jist? It seems only fair to explain why else you fancy them. If it was just a case of comparing odds vs betfair, I am sure the world would have latched onto that and everyone would make the game pay.

Yes obv I have reasons for picking Lincoln as my horse.  Colts have a very good record in the race for a start.

However, the point of my post was

a) Paddy P are 6 places

b) (If you can get on) You can bet at slightly worse odds with Paddy P and the extra place will make up for the difference.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £345.67

Outstanding Bets £2722.12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=25

A loss of £30 yesterday

winners

+£45 Cougar Mountain e/w at 40-1 at Royal Ascot, in the orange cap behind solow and esoterique



+£8 Muthmir e/w at Royal Ascot, in blue in 3rd, close to the scoop



losers

-£40 toormore royal ascot

-£20 blonde nipper out of the greyhound derby, failing to make the top 3 of 5 in its heat

-£13 Net result on the Cleveland Cavaliers losing the NBA finals 4-2 to the Golden State Warriors, and losing 105-97 in game 6 despite another monster performance from Lebron



-£10 Philip Glenister next top gear host

Click to see full-size image.

Ongoing

3 wins for Ryan Moore in the Ascot top jockey bet. Betfair paid out yesterday!

gleneagles



Clondaw warrior



washington DC



Argentina beat Uruguay 1-0 in copa america, obviously no ghoals for Rolan

Lancashire beat Leicestershire by an innings, now 54 points or nearly two wins clear at the top of the table going into the second half of the championship season

Click to see full-size image.

Derbyshire lost despite a rearguard century from Wayne Madsen at Chelmsford



nothing doing yet in Galle, Pakistan v Sri Lanka

[Ironside]

Going back to saints to be relegated bet I would wait to put in on until just before the clash with man u we should of picked up a few points by then and will know if we have made league stage of europa

[TightEnd]

Tupi a decent 20 ew tomorrow after latharnachs performance in st james

Do we not need 4 places paid for this to be a good EW bet?

Yes, I'd far sooner double up on the win part or take advantage of a "money back if" offer. Can't be good to take three spots in a sixteen runner race.

Short priced favorite, couple of rags, it is marginal, but not horribly bad with quarter odds and a win price better than Betfair when I looked.  4 places would be excellent. 

it would help if on horse recommendations the time of the race was listed please

as it happens this is the 2.30. saved me a bit of time looking!

it is 3 places everywhere

not sure from the comments "marginal" etc whether it is a bet to place or not

[TightEnd]

Morning all

Ascot has some nice races tomorrow.

3.40 is an each way dream.  You have an evens/odds on favourite and 3 horses at big prices at the bottom.  Whilst Tikay is otherwised engaged beating up some old duffers, we could back the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites each way and get value on each. Will just settle for Rizeena at 8/1 quarter first 3 with beteveryday and choral.  Bragging is 10/1 quarter first 3 with lads, pp, choral and shy.  Hopefully we get to keep 8 and can go 20 each way each.  Given the number of bookies we can probably wait to lunchtime to see if there are any non runners.  So long as we are close to Betfair at that time take what price we can get.  Ofc if one shortens horribly don't back it but each way terms means you can relax with 7/1 Rizeena and 9/1 Bragging.

5.00 pays quarter first 5 in several spots.  I assume we aren't going to lose enough to jeopardise this and we can go 20 e/w on GM Hopkins at 12/1 and get a free place.  Hills and fred offer this price so may as well hills mobile it.

5.35 this is a nice race with 17 in it.  Think we have to wait and hope we don't lose 2. witha short priced horse and a couple of big ones, we can hope we get 11/1 Jellicle Ball and quarter first 4.  I think 10 is ok, but don't go shorter.  Suggest 20 e/w

Cheers

7 runners now in the 3.40 so will leave that with only 2 places each way

5.00 £20 e/w GM Hopkins 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 12-1 is on WHM Mney back as free bet if 2nd

5.35 17 still in this http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ascot/17:35/winner. will wait til after lunch to see if that is still the case

[Tal]

I have some second (or maybe third) hand word from the stable that Rizeena (Duke of Cambs 3:40)  is in prime form: "back to its best of last year".

Can it beat Integral?

8/1 with Choral, BMU and EveryDayOfTheYear if we think it can.

[TightEnd]

Morning all

Ascot has some nice races tomorrow.

3.40 is an each way dream.  You have an evens/odds on favourite and 3 horses at big prices at the bottom.  Whilst Tikay is otherwised engaged beating up some old duffers, we could back the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites each way and get value on each. Will just settle for Rizeena at 8/1 quarter first 3 with beteveryday and choral.  Bragging is 10/1 quarter first 3 with lads, pp, choral and shy.  Hopefully we get to keep 8 and can go 20 each way each.  Given the number of bookies we can probably wait to lunchtime to see if there are any non runners.  So long as we are close to Betfair at that time take what price we can get.  Ofc if one shortens horribly don't back it but each way terms means you can relax with 7/1 Rizeena and 9/1 Bragging.

5.00 pays quarter first 5 in several spots.  I assume we aren't going to lose enough to jeopardise this and we can go 20 e/w on GM Hopkins at 12/1 and get a free place.  Hills and fred offer this price so may as well hills mobile it.

5.35 this is a nice race with 17 in it.  Think we have to wait and hope we don't lose 2. witha short priced horse and a couple of big ones, we can hope we get 11/1 Jellicle Ball and quarter first 4.  I think 10 is ok, but don't go shorter.  Suggest 20 e/w

Cheers

7 runners now in the 3.40 so will leave that with only 2 places each way

5.00 £20 e/w GM Hopkins 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 12-1 is on WHM Mney back as free bet if 2nd

5.35 17 still in this http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ascot/17:35/winner. will wait til after lunch to see if that is still the case

5.35 still 17 runners and jelly's 10-1 is disappearing

 17:35 JELLICLE BALL (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 10/1 Stake: 40.00 Possible Return:  290.00

1/4 e/w 1,2,3,4

[TightEnd]

I have some second (or maybe third) hand word from the stable that Rizeena (Duke of Cambs 3:40)  is in prime form: "back to its best of last year".

Can it beat Integral?

8/1 with Choral, BMU and EveryDayOfTheYear if we think it can.

7 runners so win only?

up to you unless anyone comments

let me know

[Tal]

I have some second (or maybe third) hand word from the stable that Rizeena (Duke of Cambs 3:40)  is in prime form: "back to its best of last year".

Can it beat Integral?

8/1 with Choral, BMU and EveryDayOfTheYear if we think it can.

7 runners so win only?

up to you unless anyone comments

let me know

Would be win only, yes. £20 unless there are dissenting/approving voices

[TightEnd]

Your bet has now been placed
Single

Rizeena8/13:40 Royal Ascot - 17/06/2015
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£180.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £180.00


Tupi was tpouched off into 4th, turns out we needed that 4th place after all if we'd bet

[TheDazzler]

I have some second (or maybe third) hand word from the stable that Rizeena (Duke of Cambs 3:40)  is in prime form: "back to its best of last year".

Can it beat Integral?

8/1 with Choral, BMU and EveryDayOfTheYear if we think it can.

7 runners so win only?

up to you unless anyone comments

let me know

Would be win only, yes. £20 unless there are dissenting/approving voices

If that's 3rd hand, it could be Chinese Whispers. Rather than "back to its best of last year", it might originally have been, "back to back, a pigs ear".

[Tal]

Spirit of Wedza is 9/2 with the slow-reacting Betty Sportsbook if we're quick fingered. 4/1 everywhere else. 2:55 Hamilton.

Trainer fancies a quickfire double with this horse. Good/GTF ground suits.

[Doobs]

As doobs said there is value in the hunt cup - Paddy P are going 6 places.  There prices aren't great but I've gone for Lincoln which although at 18-1 is less than the 20-1 generally available is the slightly better bet, due to the extra place.  Speculative and Spark Plug are also the better bets with the extra place although a point shorter.

I understand that, we all understand that, but you have done exactly the same. Have you just looked at oddschecker and compared the price vs betfair, or do these horse have merit on the basis of form, track, draw, trainer stats, running into form, good jockey, nice handicap mark, distance winners, ground has come right, first time headgear, other race conditions suit?

Get my jist? It seems only fair to explain why else you fancy them. If it was just a case of comparing odds vs betfair, I am sure the world would have latched onto that and everyone would make the game pay.

Interesting you think the world would have latched on, yet few seem to have here despite numerous explanations.  If you have a horse that is on Betfair and you can gain 10% or 20% through generous place terms you are + 5% or 10% just through pin sticking.  I am pretty confident that you can make a profit this way without any horse picking skills.  

If I was at home I would have ploughed through these races and found a few horses that fit the profile and backed as many as I thought my accounts could stand (obv not all with one bookie).  As I am away and was tired and feeling a bit crap and not having an easy way of getting a bet on I stopped at one.  I think both the ones I stopped at Gosden horses in big handicaps, and I am reasonably confident that he has a good record in big handicaps (just woke up and on phone and if I recheck I might lose this wall of text).  

Neither horse is massively exposed, so could improve.  GM Hopkins has started short several times, so must be highly rated.  Jellicle Ball has only raced 4 times and 3 of those were in good races.  I have also chosen horses towards the top of the betting as it is lower variance but if you can find one with good reasoning lower down the betting then it is likely better.

There is no reason to not have 2 or 3 others in these races.  This chance to bet on such good races with low chance of losing accounts doesn't happen every day.  

All the races are thought through by me, but spending time typing it all out on a phone whilst on holiday is pretty painful to those of us above 25.

[TheDazzler]

And it's most appreciated Doobs.