Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

On the Palace ante post stuff, generally I would much rather come back at the end of the month after having a look at some pre season games and seeing what sort of team is likely to be assembled before the start of the season. Also you get the benefit of the season match bets being released which i will be very interested in tipping. I may come back on the eve of another big signing though to beat any potential drop in value that might soon happen after it becomes more common knowledge.

All markets I would say on Palace present value from what I see. Mainly as they have us set to be around 12th place and I would say the par position could be 10th.

A lot of factors in play though, Palace in the prem have always started poorly, and now with no discernible reason to will they wilt somewhat under the expectancy? They showed signs of that struggling to "banker" games at home to Hull, WBA and the like, so that is an interesting dynamic.

Anyway will save some (or an outrageously long winded amount) for later in the month/start of August.

[TightEnd]

A loss of £50 yesterday, making -£173 for the month

Mehronissia and Rah Rah unplaced at Newmarket, both just outside the first three

It is 7.30am on a saturday morning and i am scouring for big brother news. where did it all go wrong?

i think we got close on the same eviction at 8-1, she was thrown out last night in a second eviction it seems

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3156856/Sam-ejected-Big-Brother-second-shock-eviction-housemates-turn-against-her.html

a huge crowd was on hand to witness the momentous occasion

better double check with chompy. this was a loser?

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Djokovic v Federer in tomorrow's wimbledon final. We have £100 on Djokovic at 2-1 and he is now a 4/5 shot. Would be shorter, i am sure, if it was not for Federer's brilliance yesterday in beating Murray.





England look well placed to win the first Ashes test



for our bets Starc leads with 7 wickets, though the outlook is clouded by an ankle injury that saw him need painkillers to bowl, which he did at 94mph! with the Lords test 5 days away, he must be a doubt



Cook is a long way behind Root with 32 runs so far in the series against Root with 194, top scoring in both innings



So far in the match 1027 runs and we'll want Australia to get close for our "cardiff most runs in the series bet"

in cycling cavendish won a tour stage again, froome back in yellow

Click to see full-size image.

Sagan 12 points behind Griepel for the green jersey



 

[doubleup]

Lads 5 places in the York 3.25 - of their prices I've gone for Battalion @ 20-1 also like Collaboration at 20-1 with 1000minus112  rec £10 ew on both.

[BigAdz]

Lads 5 places in the York 3.25 - of their prices I've gone for Battalion @ 20-1 also like Collaboration at 20-1 with 1000minus112  rec £10 ew on both.

Any particular reason why you like them so much double?

[Chompy]

Not sure there's a lot of mileage in betting each-way in the John Smith's. There are 21 runners and it's 9-1 the field. These extra place offers can be good but only if the race shape is right and only if you have a decent chance of finding the fourth/fifth when only covering a few of them.

366 are five places as well but they're not biggest price about anything. Scuy are the same terms and biggest about a few but we know the problem here.

Not saying don't back Battalion or Collaboration but not sure there's any edge, especially with Collaboration who's drawn in the car park.

Yuh, Sam Kay was second booted out last night, so no good unf.

[doubleup]

Lads 5 places in the York 3.25 - of their prices I've gone for Battalion @ 20-1 also like Collaboration at 20-1 with 1000minus112  rec £10 ew on both.

Any particular reason why you like them so much double?

As I think I've said before, with the big handicaps I just go by the past years stats to try to profile horses that do well in the race eg in this  4yo and 5yo, down in class, low draw doesn't do great in the race.  Then see if there are any particular negatives with the horse's going preference or distance.

[doubleup]

Not saying don't back Battalion or Collaboration but not sure there's any edge, especially with Collaboration who's drawn in the car park.

Doesn't seem to make any difference in this race as high drawn horses seem to do ok.  Think that it is prob easier to settle them.  Also imo high class horses seem better able to overcome wide draws anyway (bad draws due to poorer ground a different issue).

[BigAdz]

Lads 5 places in the York 3.25 - of their prices I've gone for Battalion @ 20-1 also like Collaboration at 20-1 with 1000minus112  rec £10 ew on both.

Any particular reason why you like them so much double?

As I think I've said before, with the big handicaps I just go by the past years stats to try to profile horses that do well in the race eg in this  4yo and 5yo, down in class, low draw doesn't do great in the race.  Then see if there are any particular negatives with the horse's going preference or distance.

Sorry. I don't remember what I have said in previous posts, so I certainly won't remember what you said.

Not a dig, but I think its only fair people put up a bit more detail when making recommends, especially in sports a few will have a view. Pretty sure there will be people on here that follow Fred bets blind(who wouldn't with that long term ROI?!), so I think they deserve a bit more to if you are effectively getting people putting down their "hard earnt".

Just IMHO, of course.

[Chompy]

.

[JohnCharver]

Balty boys seemed very unlucky at ascot, finished well clear of everything on his side, only one that came down its side in the first 9. available 16/1 at lads (have took collaboration aswell fwiw, think the pace in its last race didnt suit it, and this should suit better)

[BigAdz]

Balty boys seemed very unlucky at ascot, finished well clear of everything on his side, only one that came down its side in the first 9. available 16/1 at lads

Seems to have improved a bit this year to my eyes, don't you think? Not sure the 1.2m is ideal, but see him running well. Colm riding him looks very significant.

I like Mount Logan, and especially Educate, who having run well in this last two years and now down a fair bit looks primed to run well at big odds with a decent kid taking a few pound off.
Not strong enough for a Fred recommend those!

[doubleup]

Also regarding the 5 places Doobs and I have explained about a dozen times why they make a race EV+

In the John Smiths Cup if you took the best price from the 3 bookies going 5 places, the place book is 437% and you obviously get a return of 500%.  It quite simply has to be profitable betting horses that aren't rank outsiders.

So please stopping talking about "shape" in these races with 5 places, they would be profitable if every horse was priced 17-1 in a 20 runner race.

[JohnCharver]

Balty boys seemed very unlucky at ascot, finished well clear of everything on his side, only one that came down its side in the first 9. available 16/1 at lads

Seems to have improved a bit this year to my eyes, don't you think? Not sure the 1.2m is ideal, but see him running well. Colm riding him looks very significant.

I like Mount Logan, and especially Educate, who having run well in this last two years and now down a fair bit looks primed to run well at big odds with a decent kid taking a few pound off.
Not strong enough for a Fred recommend those!

yeah, i dont think he has any issues with a mile, but newmarket where a few of these run you wouldnt take any of them to be any closer over an extra furlong there? Looked a lot easier than the margin suggested (he ran sideways for a bit)

[nellberg]

caribbean premier league this afternoon, 5 o clock start, st kitts & nevis v t & t. dowrich is 25/1 to be top bat for st kitts on beteveryday. that copped in last nights game when he was promoted to number 3. before that the market had been dominated by guptill, lewis and samuels, but since he went well last night and was motm he may get an extended run up the order.  his t20 record isn't very good, but he's a current west indian international batsman. not sure if they'll class it as a palp, as nothing on oddschecker to compare prices, but he's no 25/1 shot if he bats 3

[Marky147]

Balty boys seemed very unlucky at ascot, finished well clear of everything on his side, only one that came down its side in the first 9. available 16/1 at lads

Seems to have improved a bit this year to my eyes, don't you think? Not sure the 1.2m is ideal, but see him running well. Colm riding him looks very significant.

I like Mount Logan, and especially Educate, who having run well in this last two years and now down a fair bit looks primed to run well at big odds with a decent kid taking a few pound off.
Not strong enough for a Fred recommend those!

FFS... I backed Educate yesterday