Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

did you know that in 11 of the last 13 Premier League seasons a player has been in the top 4 of the golden boot at 50/1+

100/1+ places in that time as follows

(hijacking a twitter convo i saw)



8 of the last 13 seasons


there are currently 92 players listed at 50-1 and above and 77 at 100-1 and above and yet the recent data would say this is a less efficient market than we'd expect

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

everyone is going to know about costa, aguero, kane etc this time round

but who are the longshots we might have some fun with at a price? i appreciate these are difficult to spot..if they weren't they wouldn't be 100-1+

I was aware of these stats.
Which is why I put up the stonking 150/1 Darren Bent 2 years ago (1 goal?) and as midfielders feature more often than you'd think, the cute as a fox recommendation of 150/1 Eric Lamela last year (1 goal).
I'll go for the 3peat this year.
I do think the value is Rooney @ 16/1. He's going to be the main striker in a really good looking attacking side.
Sakho @ 66/1, J Rodriguez @ 90/1, Gomis @ 100/1, Chadli @ 200/1, Bojan @ 225/1, Jerome @ 250/1, Agbohlahor @ 300/1 all look ok to me.

[mondatoo]

i'll throw in papis cisse (with apologies to jaffa cake)

100-1

11 in 22 last year

NUFC seem to be spending to improve the team

he'd play up front with Mitrovic?


anyone that price is going to have holes, but i was just having a trawl through

150/1 888 fwiw

[Ironside]

danny ings and pelle and Jrod all look value at 67.0

[TightEnd]

is jay rodriguez fit for aug 8th?

will he have to surplant pelle or would he play alongside him in a 2 or off him in in a 4-4-1-1?

(sneaky way of getting FPL stuff from dazzler this)

[TheDazzler]

Horsie would be a good man to ask for the top goalscorer. He was very, very unlucky in putting up J Rod 2 years ago at 150/1(?) who was in the place money when he got that terrible injury.

is jay rodriguez fit for aug 8th?

will he have to surplant pelle or would he play alongside him in a 2 or off him in in a 4-4-1-1?

(sneaky way of getting FPL stuff from dazzler this)

J Rod is fit and I think he plays in the 3, in a 4-2-3-1.

In any case, Rooney each way for top goalscorer is my biggest pre season bet.

[TightEnd]

arbboy

so the e/w shape of the book is not good at 3/1 5/1 14/1 bar two

dazzler posts "Sakho @ 66/1, J Rodriguez @ 90/1, Gomis @ 100/1, Chadli @ 200/1, Bojan @ 225/1, Jerome @ 250/1, Agbohlahor @ 300/1 all look ok to me."

ignore the names, but at these prices if you wanted to do them you would do them win only?

[arbboy]

arbboy

so the e/w shape of the book is not good at 3/1 5/1 14/1 bar two

dazzler posts "Sakho @ 66/1, J Rodriguez @ 90/1, Gomis @ 100/1, Chadli @ 200/1, Bojan @ 225/1, Jerome @ 250/1, Agbohlahor @ 300/1 all look ok to me."

ignore the names, but at these prices if you wanted to do them you would do them win only?

I would ask the question can the said players score 25 goals?  If not then i probably wouldn't be backing them full stop.  There is no ew value at all 1/4 1,2,3,4 on any outsider.  IF there is ew value it will only be at the very top of the market.

Jerome 250/1?  Really?  Fuck me i would lay 2500/1 if i had to win only.  There was a reason why in his prime he never got a game for Stoke years ago.

[TightEnd]

anyway i have started us off

Premier League 2015/2016
Top Goalscorer
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Rooney, Wayne    16/1    
Total stake   £ 40.00
Estimated return   £ 440.00
Full stake   £ 40.00
Full estimated return   £ 440.00

there is no rush on the rest, was just casting bait for opinions/names/ideas. can sift through them in time

[TheDazzler]

arbboy

so the e/w shape of the book is not good at 3/1 5/1 14/1 bar two

dazzler posts "Sakho @ 66/1, J Rodriguez @ 90/1, Gomis @ 100/1, Chadli @ 200/1, Bojan @ 225/1, Jerome @ 250/1, Agbohlahor @ 300/1 all look ok to me."

ignore the names, but at these prices if you wanted to do them you would do them win only?

I would ask the question can the said players score 25 goals?  If not then i probably wouldn't be backing them full stop.  There is no ew value at all 1/4 1,2,3,4 on any outsider.  IF there is ew value it will only be at the very top of the market.

Jerome 250/1?  Really?  Fuck me i would lay 2500/1 if i had to win only.  There was a reason why in his prime he never got a game for Stoke years ago.

Fair enough if you reckon there is no mathematical value in these long shots. I would agree that there is no way most of those can win outright. Sakho maybe?

I think you're probably best waiting for transfer activity to settle.
Someone like Soldado or Adebayor at big prices might be interesting if they move elsewhere in the Prem. You'd have to move fast though.

[Doobs]

arbboy

so the e/w shape of the book is not good at 3/1 5/1 14/1 bar two

dazzler posts "Sakho @ 66/1, J Rodriguez @ 90/1, Gomis @ 100/1, Chadli @ 200/1, Bojan @ 225/1, Jerome @ 250/1, Agbohlahor @ 300/1 all look ok to me."

ignore the names, but at these prices if you wanted to do them you would do them win only?

I would ask the question can the said players score 25 goals?  If not then i probably wouldn't be backing them full stop.  There is no ew value at all 1/4 1,2,3,4 on any outsider.  IF there is ew value it will only be at the very top of the market.

Jerome 250/1?  Really?  Fuck me i would lay 2500/1 if i had to win only.  There was a reason why in his prime he never got a game for Stoke years ago.

I think the Rooney bet is good and have just backed it, but the place value is clearly better than the win value on the ones I put up and it really isn't close.

With somebody at 80/1 the win when they should be 120/1 you do lose a third of your dough on the win part but the real price on the place part could easily be 10/1 so you double your dough there.  Am not saying that is the case with everyone in this list of names obviously.

Just because Rooney is value top 4 doesn't mean nobody else further down is.  

[arbboy]

arbboy

so the e/w shape of the book is not good at 3/1 5/1 14/1 bar two

dazzler posts "Sakho @ 66/1, J Rodriguez @ 90/1, Gomis @ 100/1, Chadli @ 200/1, Bojan @ 225/1, Jerome @ 250/1, Agbohlahor @ 300/1 all look ok to me."

ignore the names, but at these prices if you wanted to do them you would do them win only?

I would ask the question can the said players score 25 goals?  If not then i probably wouldn't be backing them full stop.  There is no ew value at all 1/4 1,2,3,4 on any outsider.  IF there is ew value it will only be at the very top of the market.

Jerome 250/1?  Really?  Fuck me i would lay 2500/1 if i had to win only.  There was a reason why in his prime he never got a game for Stoke years ago.

Fair enough if you reckon there is no mathematical value in these long shots. I would agree that there is no way most of those can win outright. Sakho maybe?

I think you're probably best waiting for transfer activity to settle.
Someone like Soldado or Adebayor at big prices might be interesting if they move elsewhere in the Prem. You'd have to move fast though.

The top end of the market is so deep and strong.  One or two players can't get injured at the top and give a rag a chance to win.  What will the top scorers at Chelski and Man City get this season? 22 goals? 25 goals?  Whoever starts up front for them.  Don't forget there could still be huge signings made yet for the big teams.  This could add another 10/20% to the overround which is already massive.  What price is Bale if he is signed?

FWIW i am not sure if Rooney is value at 4/1 to top 4.  I just said if there is any ew value then it will always be at the very top of the market.  the 1/4 1234 is a joke given they bet open golf to 8 places and still made it pay.

[TightEnd]

arbboy

so the e/w shape of the book is not good at 3/1 5/1 14/1 bar two

dazzler posts "Sakho @ 66/1, J Rodriguez @ 90/1, Gomis @ 100/1, Chadli @ 200/1, Bojan @ 225/1, Jerome @ 250/1, Agbohlahor @ 300/1 all look ok to me."

ignore the names, but at these prices if you wanted to do them you would do them win only?

I would ask the question can the said players score 25 goals?  If not then i probably wouldn't be backing them full stop.  There is no ew value at all 1/4 1,2,3,4 on any outsider.  IF there is ew value it will only be at the very top of the market.

Jerome 250/1?  Really?  Fuck me i would lay 2500/1 if i had to win only.  There was a reason why in his prime he never got a game for Stoke years ago.

Fair enough if you reckon there is no mathematical value in these long shots. I would agree that there is no way most of those can win outright. Sakho maybe?

I think you're probably best waiting for transfer activity to settle.
Someone like Soldado or Adebayor at big prices might be interesting if they move elsewhere in the Prem. You'd have to move fast though.

someone was mentioning Remy to Palace to me earlier today. 40/1, if he started 80% of the games for a side like that (thinking back to newcastle) that has to be interesting

the price assumes he's stuck behind costa and competing with falcao

all about opportunity and what happens in the window

[JohnCharver]

i'll throw in papis cisse (with apologies to jaffa cake)

100-1

11 in 22 last year

NUFC seem to be spending to improve the team

he'd play up front with Mitrovic?


anyone that price is going to have holes, but i was just having a trawl through

He probably is on bench with the number of cm we have, prob play 3 or one off like de Jong  and I'd rather see Perez play instead (he probably plays wide). He only scores off the bench anyway so bombs away. think jaffas bet last year was 16s for toon top gs which is endlessly better than against the league. Agree with arbboy you are looking at 2min a club prob av of 3 so you have a 60 runner handicap of chances, loads of dead wood tho. Easy to say there's usually a long shot ew one but there's 50 runners at that.

[Knottikay]

Bojan at Stoke should hopefully be fit for the start of the season and from what form he showed last season, looks a good outside e/w bet. Mark Hughes rates him highly and will give him a good run in the side. Can I recommend 50p e/w and get my 1st tip through on TFT?.......

I had already done the Rooney bet, as I had read the same kind of stuff elsewhere. That price will shorten before the season starts, so 16/1 is good.

[arbboy]

How would people price the top goalscorer coming from top 4 team in betting outright v the field (anyone of the other sixteen teams)?