It is near the end of the T20 Group stages, with the quarter finals in mid August
tonight
Warwickshire play Northants at Edgbaston live on Sky
Warwickshire are one of the top T20 teams in the country, won it last year, top of the table this
Northants won it two years ago, which Tft will remember, struggled last year and lost their first three games this year. Since then though they have won 7 of 8
Two wins in their final group games would give them a home quarter, one win an away quarter
Warwickshire have all bases covered from hitters to nurdlers with the bat and their bowling line up is surperb. They tend to produce dry slow surfaces for home T20s, and they are rarely high scoring. Their star performer is the spinner Jeetan Patel but the whole bowling line up is adept at taking the pace off on the slow tracks. Clarke, Hannon-Dalby and Gordon, for example, are amongst the best T20 bowlers around.
Northants are a bit more of a boom and bust side. the top of their order in particular is as follows
David Willey
Richard Levi
Josh Cobb
Willey pinch hits, looking for a fast start in the powerplay. Cobb is similar. Levi is technically suspect but thrashes it a long way on the legside if he gets in
The issue here is that Warwickshire will exploit lack of technique and i think early wickets are a strong possibility
That opens up this market
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/warwickshire-v-northamptonshire/top-northamptonshire-batsmanwhere it is 11/2 bar the three hitters at the top
Alex Wakely the captain is a steady batsman, can repair innings and bat through
Ben Duckett is 20. Tiny left handed batsman.
Give it 5 years and he will be England's wicketkeeper. He was the England U19 wicketkeeper in the last U19 world cup, scored 60 to help beat India then a 100 to beat Australia in the 3rd place playoff. Bit of a lad (suspended last offseason for poor conditioning/failing a fitness test) but a real talent
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In his last three championship games, where he bats 2 or 3 now, he has two hundreds and three fifties
Batting at 5 in the T20 his last three scores are 30, 24* and 40*
In 23 career T20 innings he has 364 runs from 290 balls faced at a strike rate of over 120.
A couple of early wickets and he could have a lot of overs to make a score here. The thing i really like about him is that he is adaptable, and not all T20 batsmen are. He can hit it with the best of them and nudge it around at other times
I don't think you'll get him at 7-1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) for too many more T20 games as his name becomes known. Northants don't appear on TV much, which has helped him stay a little under the radar in markets
The long term plan would be for him to open or bat three in this format too
So
Warwickshire at home in the T20 this season
first up scores have been
144
160
149
132
242
137
thats 5 out of 6 lowish scores
Warwickshire have an advantage in spin, pace off and bowling experience. I'd expect a slow if not used pitch tonight making it difficult for the Northants big hitters and scores of 30-50 to be in contention to win the top batsmans markets. Obviously on fresh pitches/smaller grounds etc you are needing well over 60-70 to be in contention
Northants in t20 this season
Levi 367 runs in 12 innings, strike rate 147
Cobb 330 in 12, strike 145
Duckett 189 in 9, strike 140
Wakely 172 in 11, strike 102
you can see how important it is for any bet on someone batting 4 or 5 for the top three to fail
Bets should be small here. If one of the top three gets in that is likely to be that for any hopes of later batsmen in this sub-market but for the reasons outlined i think early wickets are more likely. We would then have a shot.
recommendation £10 win Ben Duckett Top Northants batsman v Warwickshire tonight (6.30pm sky sports 2) at 7/1 Coral or Ladbrokes (17/2 PaddyPower)
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