Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

EV calculations please maths people

There obviously isn't enough info there to do any calculations, but I'll have a wild stab and say it's a way to burn money.

[Doobs]

EV calculations please maths people

There obviously isn't enough info there to do any calculations, but I'll have a wild stab and say it's a way to burn money.

My immediate thought too, but the lowest possible multiple is 1x, so on the face of it you can't lose.   Would definitely check the small print though. 

[Jamier-Host]

Sounds to me like if you bet £10 then worst case is you have £9 on at your original price. They rake 10% every time.

[doubleup]

Yeah the point is that it isn't difficult to set up the thing so that the probabilities work out -ev, so I would just assume that they have done that and tell them to gtfo.

[Ironside]

it will be a bit like a spin and go in the poker
where the most of the games are $2 if you win where $3 are taken in entry fees

[exstream]

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

[Doobs]

Yeah the point is that it isn't difficult to set up the thing so that the probabilities work out -ev, so I would just assume that they have done that and tell them to gtfo.

Spin Factor   Probability
1   80%
1.5   10%
2   8.5%
5   1%
10   0.5%

Works out as a 22% bonus on your 10%.  Funny how everyone assumes Amaya are at it even when they aren't.

[Ledders]

They take 10% from your bet to put into the spin pool. Which I imagine adds up to -ev.

e.g my mate gave it a go today to see what happened and $20 on Arsenal ended up with $18 on at 1.5x odds

[doubleup]

Yeah the point is that it isn't difficult to set up the thing so that the probabilities work out -ev, so I would just assume that they have done that and tell them to gtfo.

Spin Factor   Probability
1   80%
1.5   10%
2   8.5%
5   1%
10   0.5%

Works out as a 22% bonus on your 10%.  Funny how everyone assumes Amaya are at it even when they aren't.

OK tnks so they reduce their edge slightly

Even if they were paying as high as 1.9-1 about a 2-1 shot, it would still be -ev, they are probably more like 1.75-1 for that and that would be an roi of -.06.

Prob worth looking at if they start making ricks.

[DMorgan]

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!

[tikay]

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!

Not sure I agree with that Dan, though I know I'll get jumped on.

In return for that extra 8%, we have to overcome the increased variance of picking not one winner, but three in a row.

I'm steadfastly opposed to most of these "Enhanced Doubles/Trebles" & the like.

And yes, I know the math, & I get the logic, but personally, I want more than 8% if I'm expected to select three in a row. 

Don't mind doing them when we are getting a hefty edge, & as long as they are far & few between, but I'm very much opposed to doing them regularly or by habit.

I hope folks keep putting them up, as I know how popular they are (yes, I do......), & that means all the regulars can fill their boots if they wish,. but I hope Fred does not get carried away with them.

[BorntoBubble]

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!

Not sure I agree with that Dan, though I know I'll get jumped on.

In return for that extra 8%, we have to overcome the increased variance of picking not one winner, but three in a row.

I'm steadfastly opposed to most of these "Enhanced Doubles/Trebles" & the like.

And yes, I know the math, & I get the logic, but personally, I want more than 8% if I'm expected to select three in a row. 

Don't mind doing them when we are getting a hefty edge, & as long as they are far & few between, but I'm very much opposed to doing them regularly or by habit.

I hope folks keep putting them up, as I know how popular they are (yes, I do......), & that means all the regulars can fill their boots if they wish,. but I hope Fred does not get carried away with them.

It does not matter if you have to pick 3 winners at a 5/2 shot or 1 winner at 5/2 shot. If they really are 2/1 shots then your edge and your likelihood and your variance are all exactly the same.

[arbboy]

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!

Not sure I agree with that Dan, though I know I'll get jumped on.

In return for that extra 8%, we have to overcome the increased variance of picking not one winner, but three in a row.

I'm steadfastly opposed to most of these "Enhanced Doubles/Trebles" & the like.

And yes, I know the math, & I get the logic, but personally, I want more than 8% if I'm expected to select three in a row. 

Don't mind doing them when we are getting a hefty edge, & as long as they are far & few between, but I'm very much opposed to doing them regularly or by habit.

I hope folks keep putting them up, as I know how popular they are (yes, I do......), & that means all the regulars can fill their boots if they wish,. but I hope Fred does not get carried away with them.

It does not matter if you have to pick 3 winners at a 5/2 shot or 1 winner at 5/2 shot. If they really are 2/1 shots then your edge and your likelihood and your variance are all exactly the same.

Exactly  Tikay really needs to lose this trebles mindset in this spot.  It is exactly the same and should be bet accordingly WHEN the edge is there for decent money not micro stakes.  Obviously these spots are rare but when they are there and maths sound they should be smashed up accordingly.

Hard for leopards to change their spots though i understand that.

[BorntoBubble]

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!

Not sure I agree with that Dan, though I know I'll get jumped on.

In return for that extra 8%, we have to overcome the increased variance of picking not one winner, but three in a row.

I'm steadfastly opposed to most of these "Enhanced Doubles/Trebles" & the like.

And yes, I know the math, & I get the logic, but personally, I want more than 8% if I'm expected to select three in a row. 

Don't mind doing them when we are getting a hefty edge, & as long as they are far & few between, but I'm very much opposed to doing them regularly or by habit.

I hope folks keep putting them up, as I know how popular they are (yes, I do......), & that means all the regulars can fill their boots if they wish,. but I hope Fred does not get carried away with them.

It does not matter if you have to pick 3 winners at a 5/2 shot or 1 winner at 5/2 shot. If they really are 2/1 shots then your edge and your likelihood and your variance are all exactly the same.

Exactly  Tikay really needs to lose this trebles mindset in this spot.  It is exactly the same and should be bet accordingly WHEN the edge is there for decent money not micro stakes.  Obviously these spots are rare but when they are there and maths sound they should be smashed up accordingly.

Hard for leopards to change their spots though i understand that.

Also if we agree that bet fair is right or near right then we can calculate our edge.

I actually often think in these short odds situations your edge is bigger.

I would argue that mugs don't like backing short odds things, unless it is a big fans fav. After the event it could be argued that Ronnie was to short in this and was backed in by mugs because he was poor on the day but selby also was possible to long.

There is also the factors that these were not the most liquid markets and you have hundreds and probably thousands of abers out there inflating the bet fair price.

On the subject of arbing

I went away with a mate over Christmas and he showed me this site which goes through all the offers each day and let's people know how to arb them, he didn't know what he was doing is arbing. Then last weekend another mate in another frIends circle was using exactly the same site. They both claim to be making £500 ish a month of this site risk free. They back offers like this then Kay them on bet fair. I am trying to convince them not to lay back a £20 bet but they won't have it, they take their 1.43 and move on to the next bet.

Crazy world. Also i have seen a lot of girls advertising on Facebook £200 in cash for selling their betting identity.

[arbboy]

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!

Not sure I agree with that Dan, though I know I'll get jumped on.

In return for that extra 8%, we have to overcome the increased variance of picking not one winner, but three in a row.

I'm steadfastly opposed to most of these "Enhanced Doubles/Trebles" & the like.

And yes, I know the math, & I get the logic, but personally, I want more than 8% if I'm expected to select three in a row. 

Don't mind doing them when we are getting a hefty edge, & as long as they are far & few between, but I'm very much opposed to doing them regularly or by habit.

I hope folks keep putting them up, as I know how popular they are (yes, I do......), & that means all the regulars can fill their boots if they wish,. but I hope Fred does not get carried away with them.

It does not matter if you have to pick 3 winners at a 5/2 shot or 1 winner at 5/2 shot. If they really are 2/1 shots then your edge and your likelihood and your variance are all exactly the same.

Exactly  Tikay really needs to lose this trebles mindset in this spot.  It is exactly the same and should be bet accordingly WHEN the edge is there for decent money not micro stakes.  Obviously these spots are rare but when they are there and maths sound they should be smashed up accordingly.

Hard for leopards to change their spots though i understand that.

Also if we agree that bet fair is right or near right then we can calculate our edge.

I actually often think in these short odds situations your edge is bigger.

I would argue that mugs don't like backing short odds things, unless it is a big fans fav. After the event it could be argued that Ronnie was to short in this and was backed in by mugs because he was poor on the day but selby also was possible to long.

There is also the factors that these were not the most liquid markets and you have hundreds and probably thousands of abers out there inflating the bet fair price.

On the subject of arbing

I went away with a mate over Christmas and he showed me this site which goes through all the offers each day and let's people know how to arb them, he didn't know what he was doing is arbing. Then last weekend another mate in another frIends circle was using exactly the same site. They both claim to be making £500 ish a month of this site risk free. They back offers like this then Kay them on bet fair. I am trying to convince them not to lay back a £20 bet but they won't have it, they take their 1.43 and move on to the next bet.

Crazy world. Also i have seen a lot of girls advertising on Facebook £200 in cash for selling their betting identity.

They are getting shafted.  I used to pay £1000 10 years ago.