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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16358757 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #111915 on: January 14, 2016, 12:11:04 PM »

Smoggies have ten league games left at home?

Don't think I've ever backed a team to keep a clean sheet but, looking at this weekend, Hull are 4-11 to win at home and 4-6 to keep a clean sheet.

Without proper research it feels like this should be a four-figure price?

Agree with this.   Hull are playing a woeful team in Charlton.   Boro are going to be playing teams that are mid table on average.   They might be a little better than Hull, but the average opponent is going to be significantly better than Charlton.  I think 4/5 for each clean sheet on average looks fair.  So you need 1.8^10 to be less than 200 and it isn't by a margin (=357).  

1.8 is (4+5)/5.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #111916 on: January 14, 2016, 12:11:49 PM »

Coral have some specials on Middlesbrough FC by all accounts.

Middlesbrough to remain unbeaten in the Championship for the rest of the season - 67.0
Middlesbrough to not concede a goal in the Championship from 16/1/16 - 1001.0
Middlesbrough to not concede a goal at home in the Championship from 16/1/16 - 201.0

The first one probably wont happen, I have us down to lose 1 game, away at Burnley, so dont think that will happen.

Now we get to the interesting bits.

Boro are currently on a run of 9 games without conceding a goal in the Championship, which has equaled the Championship record held by Chelsea and Leeds, we have a shot at breaking that away at Bristol City this weekend who are 3rd bottom of the league.

Anyone who has seen Boro this season knows that we are a beast of a team in this division. At home, we have P13 W10 L1 GF20 GA2. The last goal we conceded at home was on the 5/9/15 against Brentford.

Obviously, we are going to concede again this season in all matches, but I think there is a shot we dont concede again at home in the league, and certainly think it is worth £10 at 201.0

Recommend £10 Boro to not concede at home for the rest of the season in the Championship with Coral





what price is muiddlesborough to win to nil for a home game?

what does a tenfold pay?

ie what vig is in the 200-1 price?

Lots.  If they are 4/6 to keep a clean sheet in every home game they are 170/1 to do it over 10 games.  They will not be 4/6 to keep a clean sheet in every game.  If Hull are 4/11 and 4/6 to keep a clean sheet at the weekend and it is effectively the biggest gulf in class in the league (top v bottom at home).  

Plus if they carry on at this pace they are likely to have locked promo up early and will probably be resting key players towards the end of the season and will be relaxed in party/beach mode in late games and more likely to concede.

Recommendation - no bet
« Last Edit: January 14, 2016, 12:14:08 PM by arbboy » Logged
fatcatstu
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« Reply #111917 on: January 14, 2016, 12:14:18 PM »

Smoggies have ten league games left at home?

Don't think I've ever backed a team to keep a clean sheet but, looking at this weekend, Hull are 4-11 to win at home and 4-6 to keep a clean sheet.

Without proper research it feels like this should be a four-figure price?

Agree with this.   Hull are playing a woeful team in Charlton.   Boro are going to be playing teams that are mid table on average.   They might be a little better than Hull, but the average opponent is going to be significantly better than Charlton.  I think 4/5 for each clean sheet on average looks fair.  So you need 1.8^10 to be less than 200 and it isn't by a margin (=357).  

1.8 is (4+5)/5.

Ahhh I get it. I just saw the price and took some Smiley Im not good with all this maths stuff.

FWIW I would say at home, having only conceded 2 goals in 13 games, we must more than 4/5 to not concede?
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arbboy
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« Reply #111918 on: January 14, 2016, 12:16:47 PM »

Smoggies have ten league games left at home?

Don't think I've ever backed a team to keep a clean sheet but, looking at this weekend, Hull are 4-11 to win at home and 4-6 to keep a clean sheet.

Without proper research it feels like this should be a four-figure price?

Agree with this.   Hull are playing a woeful team in Charlton.   Boro are going to be playing teams that are mid table on average.   They might be a little better than Hull, but the average opponent is going to be significantly better than Charlton.  I think 4/5 for each clean sheet on average looks fair.  So you need 1.8^10 to be less than 200 and it isn't by a margin (=357).  

1.8 is (4+5)/5.

Ahhh I get it. I just saw the price and took some Smiley Im not good with all this maths stuff.

FWIW I would say at home, having only conceded 2 goals in 13 games, we must more than 4/5 to not concede?

Just do the bet in singles every week and roll the money over and see which bet gives you a better return.

PS - i bet you shit urself and cash out before it gets to the end of the season if you do it this way.  People always do.
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fatcatstu
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« Reply #111919 on: January 14, 2016, 12:18:44 PM »

Smoggies have ten league games left at home?

Don't think I've ever backed a team to keep a clean sheet but, looking at this weekend, Hull are 4-11 to win at home and 4-6 to keep a clean sheet.

Without proper research it feels like this should be a four-figure price?

Agree with this.   Hull are playing a woeful team in Charlton.   Boro are going to be playing teams that are mid table on average.   They might be a little better than Hull, but the average opponent is going to be significantly better than Charlton.  I think 4/5 for each clean sheet on average looks fair.  So you need 1.8^10 to be less than 200 and it isn't by a margin (=357).  

1.8 is (4+5)/5.

Ahhh I get it. I just saw the price and took some Smiley Im not good with all this maths stuff.

FWIW I would say at home, having only conceded 2 goals in 13 games, we must more than 4/5 to not concede?

Just do the bet in singles every week and roll the money over and see which bet gives you a better return.

PS - i bet you shit urself and cash out before it gets to the end of the season if you do it this way.  People always do.

Absolutely will, only got a few quid on it for some interest, but as soon as it gets enough to cover my flights to vegas I am taking it!
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TightEnd
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« Reply #111920 on: January 14, 2016, 12:19:46 PM »

Smoggies have ten league games left at home?

Don't think I've ever backed a team to keep a clean sheet but, looking at this weekend, Hull are 4-11 to win at home and 4-6 to keep a clean sheet.

Without proper research it feels like this should be a four-figure price?

Agree with this.   Hull are playing a woeful team in Charlton.   Boro are going to be playing teams that are mid table on average.   They might be a little better than Hull, but the average opponent is going to be significantly better than Charlton.  I think 4/5 for each clean sheet on average looks fair.  So you need 1.8^10 to be less than 200 and it isn't by a margin (=357). 

1.8 is (4+5)/5.

Ahhh I get it. I just saw the price and took some Smiley Im not good with all this maths stuff.

FWIW I would say at home, having only conceded 2 goals in 13 games, we must more than 4/5 to not concede?

just stick 4/5, 4/6, 8/11 etc into an accumulator calculator maybe graded by strength of opposition

unless you stick in 4/6 and shorter every game you get comfortably above 200-1

its designed to attract mug punters from Mddlesborough to have a bet....

oh, wait...:-)
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fatcatstu
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« Reply #111921 on: January 14, 2016, 12:24:55 PM »

Smoggies have ten league games left at home?

Don't think I've ever backed a team to keep a clean sheet but, looking at this weekend, Hull are 4-11 to win at home and 4-6 to keep a clean sheet.

Without proper research it feels like this should be a four-figure price?

Agree with this.   Hull are playing a woeful team in Charlton.   Boro are going to be playing teams that are mid table on average.   They might be a little better than Hull, but the average opponent is going to be significantly better than Charlton.  I think 4/5 for each clean sheet on average looks fair.  So you need 1.8^10 to be less than 200 and it isn't by a margin (=357). 

1.8 is (4+5)/5.

Ahhh I get it. I just saw the price and took some Smiley Im not good with all this maths stuff.

FWIW I would say at home, having only conceded 2 goals in 13 games, we must more than 4/5 to not concede?

just stick 4/5, 4/6, 8/11 etc into an accumulator calculator maybe graded by strength of opposition

unless you stick in 4/6 and shorter every game you get comfortably above 200-1

its designed to attract mug punters from Mddlesborough to have a bet....

oh, wait...:-)


Sometimes it is good to have a sweat, we got the league wrapped up already, so need something to keep it interesting  Tongue
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arbboy
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« Reply #111922 on: January 14, 2016, 12:40:37 PM »

These sort of posts put Tikay off betting multis!!!!!!!  Such bad timing after the posts yesterday.  Please see the difference boss!
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« Reply #111923 on: January 14, 2016, 12:45:55 PM »

good bet nellberg, unlucky

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« Reply #111924 on: January 14, 2016, 01:14:18 PM »

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!



Not sure I agree with that Dan, though I know I'll get jumped on.

In return for that extra 8%, we have to overcome the increased variance of picking not one winner, but three in a row.

I'm steadfastly opposed to most of these "Enhanced Doubles/Trebles" & the like.

And yes, I know the math, & I get the logic, but personally, I want more than 8% if I'm expected to select three in a row. 

Don't mind doing them when we are getting a hefty edge, & as long as they are far & few between, but I'm very much opposed to doing them regularly or by habit.

I hope folks keep putting them up, as I know how popular they are (yes, I do......), & that means all the regulars can fill their boots if they wish,. but I hope Fred does not get carried away with them.

I know where you're coming from Tony, but by the same logic we should never have a bet any anything because bookies love taking bets

A couple of my housemates love a 10 fold over 1.5 acca on a Saturday and I don't doubt you for a second that the bookies do very well laying these kind of bets, but the multiplication of the bookies edge works against them when we find a couple of edges that we can multiply.

Its completely understandable that a 5/2 3-fold feels harder to win than a 5/2 single, but the treble is much more fun when you know that you've nicked a good 10% from the bookie win or lose Smiley
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« Reply #111925 on: January 14, 2016, 01:22:54 PM »

Feedback on the snooker doubles was that because combined even using exchange odds, the doubles were still that much better.

Same goes for the NBA treble on Ladbrokes which is Boston Celtics, LA Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder all to win  12/5.
£50 using exchange odds would return £134.
The above returns £170.

Same thing?

Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards & Houston Rockets All to Win @ 5/2 @ william hill too.
Beats exchange odds again.

The 5/2 is an 8% edge over exchange prices, would be a very easy game if we could get on all of those for chunks!



Not sure I agree with that Dan, though I know I'll get jumped on.

In return for that extra 8%, we have to overcome the increased variance of picking not one winner, but three in a row.

I'm steadfastly opposed to most of these "Enhanced Doubles/Trebles" & the like.

And yes, I know the math, & I get the logic, but personally, I want more than 8% if I'm expected to select three in a row. 

Don't mind doing them when we are getting a hefty edge, & as long as they are far & few between, but I'm very much opposed to doing them regularly or by habit.

I hope folks keep putting them up, as I know how popular they are (yes, I do......), & that means all the regulars can fill their boots if they wish,. but I hope Fred does not get carried away with them.

I know where you're coming from Tony, but by the same logic we should never have a bet any anything because bookies love taking bets

A couple of my housemates love a 10 fold over 1.5 acca on a Saturday and I don't doubt you for a second that the bookies do very well laying these kind of bets, but the multiplication of the bookies edge works against them when we find a couple of edges that we can multiply.

Its completely understandable that a 5/2 3-fold feels harder to win than a 5/2 single, but the treble is much more fun when you know that you've nicked a good 10% from the bookie win or lose Smiley

If they haven't won recently doing these they never will.  One of my mates laying overs (including 1.5) on betfair on all major leagues and tv matches close to the off and backing 0-0s and has had his worse run ever recently esp on over 1.5 goals.  There was one weekend recently where 40 out of 41 games went over 1.5.  It is amazing how many goals are flying in at the minute.  He is on a current streak of only 3 0-0s in nearly 200 games.
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« Reply #111926 on: January 14, 2016, 01:42:19 PM »

i think my objection, objection is the wrong word, my issue is that a sport like basketball is tough to get trebles+ up in

almost every team can beat almost any other team any night

compare that to snooker where ronnie would have to have an off day to lose to williams, selby an off day to lose to walden etc etc so you feel you are on two good things. i doubt we'd think we are on three basketball good things. in this basketball season we don't even get any basketball recommended.

the depth of the competition varies markedly sport to sport so whilst you might think you are nicking 10% over the betfair multiple price i think it differs in practice and we aren't going to be doing enough to iron out the short term variance
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« Reply #111927 on: January 14, 2016, 01:45:37 PM »

i think my objection, objection is the wrong word, my issue is that a sport like basketball is tough to get trebles+ up in

almost every team can beat almost any other team any night

compare that to snooker where ronnie would have to have an off day to lose to williams, selby an off day to lose to walden etc etc so you feel you are on two good things. i doubt we'd think we are on three basketball good things. in this basketball season we don't even get any basketball recommended.

the depth of the competition varies markedly sport to sport so whilst you might think you are nicking 10% over the betfair multiple price i think it differs in practice and we aren't going to be doing enough to iron out the short term variance
#

We can't have it both ways.  If the acca isn't value then we should be laying each fav as singles individually if we have an 8% edge on the acca over betfair prices.  At least one of them has to be value.  I know which one looking blind usually will be (the loss leader product from the firms giving away ev to suck punters in to bet with them that night)  There is very little argument here.  Yes we are buying some variance backing bigger pictures but a 2/1 single that we get 5/2 about is identical to a 2/1 treble we are getting 5/2 about.  There is no difference.  If we back 5/2 shots that are 2/1 on bf blind as singles then we should do the same with these accas.  I appreciate the bf price can be wrong i campaign this all the time.  However in this spot it is relatively safe to understand you are getting a lost leader product here from a firm without having to do much work.  

A lot of clueless marketing guys in betting firms think like Tikay.  Doubles and accas are for mugs.  Generally they are right but when they enhance them to stupid levels they are literally setting fire to money as a marketing exercise.  Believe me i have worked with many of them and had these arguments.  One of the main reasons why i stopped working for firms because you have to listen to this nonsense from clueless marketing people every day if you are a trading director in meetings.

If i laid you evens NZ aussie and england to beat Georgia, Romania and Canada in a rugby acca would you not be interested in the evens because it is a treble?  Even though it should be a 1/5 shot.

We have to be having a decent bet one way or the other in a spot like this.  There is no arugment about this maths wise.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2016, 02:05:39 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #111928 on: January 14, 2016, 02:02:35 PM »

selby goes off 11/10 in a spot, evens generally
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« Reply #111929 on: January 14, 2016, 02:08:18 PM »

The 12/5 ladbrokes nba treble won, argument over Wink
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