Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

The 12/5 ladbrokes nba treble won, argument over

There is no argument.  I just put it to bed above.  Results ftw though. wp

[TightEnd]

The 12/5 ladbrokes nba treble won, argument over

this means nothing at all

some will win, some will lose

the exposure to variance is an issue (not long term, but in our volumes with our working capital it is)

hence i couldnt do £500 a piece on the snooker doubles

[exstream]

winky face people!

[arbboy]

The 12/5 ladbrokes nba treble won, argument over

this means nothing at all

some will win, some will lose

the exposure to variance is an issue (not long term, but in our volumes with our working capital it is)

hence i couldnt do £500 a piece on the snooker doubles

What variance?  We back 5/2 shots every day as singles.  I don't understand.  There is no more variance in this than any other 5/2 shot we are backing.  We had £200 on sunderland at 9/4 to go down quite comfortably and tied the cash up for 9 months.  This is probably a similar spot and edge.  We should be having £200 on these as well.  Maybe even more because our edge is more confirmed because the 5/2 is derived across 3 solid markets.  We only have to tie up the cash for a day in this spot then roll it over again and again.

We are more than adequately rolled to have £200-300 on these edges easily.

No brainer.

33% will win 67% will lose.  Every time we bet £200 on them we nick £16.  No arguments.  Twice our lifetime roi hence why it should be close to a maximum bet every time.  If we don't agree then we should be laying the 3 jollies in the treble to close to max stakes on betfair.

[TightEnd]

persuade the boss to load the accounts up then. good luck.

[Marky147]

The bankroll is nowhere near 10k, because Tikay has been to Vegas a few times, and spent it at Starbucks.

HTH

[arbboy]

persuade the boss to load the accounts up then. good luck.

Maybe if they are such bad bets he would consider accommodating me for a reasonable sum as you can't lay a bad treble?  I will cope with the variance.  I don't mind backing 2/1 shots at 5/2 blind in strong markets.  MBN to watch £20 notes sail past the window when you can get on.  Wish i could get these offers.

[Tal]

The bankroll is nowhere near 10k, because Tikay has been to Vegas a few times, and spent it at Starbucks.

HTH

There's a Starbucks in Glitter Gulch? Blimey. They think of everything in Vegas!

[Tal]

Not long till Cheltenham now, Tikay.

[arbboy]

Sorry to rant but it feels like we are going back to the start of fred years ago.  We really should be better now imo.  Hard to believe some of the stuff wrote this morning on here.  Is it April 1st?  Is Mardle making a comeback for the PDC worlds?

[DMorgan]

If they haven't won recently doing these they never will.  One of my mates laying overs (including 1.5) on betfair on all major leagues and tv matches close to the off and backing 0-0s and has had his worse run ever recently esp on over 1.5 goals.  There was one weekend recently where 40 out of 41 games went over 1.5.  It is amazing how many goals are flying in at the minute.  He is on a current streak of only 3 0-0s in nearly 200 games.

Yeah they've been doing very well

Theres definitely a bit of a drought on at the moment in terms of favourites getting knocked over. I do a fair bit of backing big-ish priced underdogs and draws in european football matches and its been a little lean lately. Lots of favourites getting it done by big scores.

[DaveShoelace]

Only bet I've made in about a year, Eddie Redmayne to win best actor at the Oscars, currently 14/1 on Paddy.

He won it last year, and everyone thinks this is FINALLY Leonardo DiCaprios time after snub after snub after snub. However, the Oscar folks often go against public sentiment when they think they are being pressured.

More significantly, Redmayne plays a transexual in The Danish Girl, and this is a major hot button issue in 2016, so I think the Oscars folks will make a political statement on this one and give him his second gong in a row.

[arbboy]

i think my objection, objection is the wrong word, my issue is that a sport like basketball is tough to get trebles+ up in

almost every team can beat almost any other team any night

compare that to snooker where ronnie would have to have an off day to lose to williams, selby an off day to lose to walden etc etc so you feel you are on two good things. i doubt we'd think we are on three basketball good things. in this basketball season we don't even get any basketball recommended.

the depth of the competition varies markedly sport to sport so whilst you might think you are nicking 10% over the betfair multiple price i think it differs in practice and we aren't going to be doing enough to iron out the short term variance

There is not a professional sports league in the world where teams routinely go off 1/10 to 1/50 to win regular season games apart from the NBA.  This happens almost on a nightly basis in the nba. 

[StuartHopkin]

Only just seen the 4th frame but Ronnie appears to be on fire from  

Don't contribute to this thread often, but have learnt a lot like many others I am sure.

If there is an edge in these short priced combos surely they are some of the very best possible bets you can do?

Surely as long as there is an edge the shorter the price the better?

[arbboy]

Only just seen the 4th frame but Ronnie appears to be on fire from  

Don't contribute to this thread often, but have learnt a lot like many others I am sure.

If there is an edge in these short priced combos surely they are some of the very best possible bets you can do?

Surely as long as there is an edge the shorter the price the better?

Yes because the 3 shorties should be subject to fav/longshot bias generally and could be over priced slightly on bf for various reasons as well as fav/longshot bias.  Lot of mugs like laying them pre game with a view to greening up at any point in the game when the prices goes bigger.  Forgetting that when the fav hoses up they just do their cash as they don't get a spot to lolgreen up.  The shorter the fav is the more some punters try and do this.  Plus the old classic 'you never go skint laying a short one'.