I think it’s about time we had one of those chess bets. You know, the ones we have survived perfectly well without but who doesn’t love a sweat?
The second biggest tournament of the year, the Tata Steel Masters in Wijk aan Zee in the Netherlands, starts tomorrow and the entrants are:
http://www.tatasteelchess.com/grandmastersNo surprises as to who the favourite is: Magnus Carlsen, fresh from winning the London Classic in December, is 4/6 and bidding to get a fifth Wijk title. It’s not much fun backing him at that price, even though he is finding form again. The bookmaker known as Three Fat Ladies (888) is offering a To Finish in the Top 3 market, which looks like this:
1/10 Carlsen
Evs Caruana
Evs Giri
2/1 So
5/2 Karjakin
7/2 Ding Liren
5/1 Elijanov, Mamedyarov
6/1 Tomashevsky
7/1 Navara
7/1 Wei Yi
8/1 Adams
14/1 Hou Yifan
20/1 van Wely
Realistically, Carlsen, Giri, Caruana, maybe So is the list of people who could win this outright. The rest will be playing for the minor prizes. What we do tend to see in this tournament is the top lot all beating the “weaker” players and then whoever does best against the others wins. Giri, Karjakin and So are relentless draw-merchants against the elite and very rarely go through a tournament beating two or more of the top half a dozen. They’re never value. Caruana was indifferent in London and we’re yet to see him at anything like the dazzling levels he set a couple of years ago.
The likes of Tomashevsky, Navara, Adams, Hou and van Vely are any price you like to challenge. Mamedyarov might pick up a result or two, Elijanov has decent form but still have question marks against the top few.
With a lot of draw-happy people in the top half of the betting, there’s a fair chance of a chop for the money in 2nd or 3rd. Last year, Carlsen won by half a point to four players.
http://www.tatasteelchess.com/history/recent/year/2015/standings/1As you’ll see, one of the four was Ding. He beat up the bottom half with a string of wins and lost only to the entertaining Vachier-Lagrave, an attack-minded Caruana and Giri in good form. He has made steady progress and was world number 8 in October (there’s basically nothing between a bunch of them around there).
He’s 23 years old from China and represents the growing force of chess from China. An intense, uncompromising style of play and a gifted attacker, he is putting more solid performances in his tournaments and is the leading guy in a drive from his country to dominate the game. Hou is the world’s highest ever rated female player and Wei Yi is a young, emerging threat himself.
This tournament favours those who can pick up wins, rather than a lot of the ones amongst the elite, where everyone draws and the comp is decided by one or two crucial games. It favours an attacking player and, with a successful result here last time, there’s certainly reason to believe Ding can challenge again.
He’s 17/1 outright and 7/2 top 3. That’s 1/5 odds in a 14 runner field, granted, but we can exclude a few of these without much difficulty and the market is far tastier. This isn’t horse racing, where a bit outsider can be better prepared or handicapped than anyone expected. Individual results do happen but tournament shocks over 13 games are just about inconceivable. Anand won the Candidates when a big price, but he was a good player believed to be badly out of form, which none of these at the bottom are. I think the 17/1 on Ding offers a little value, as he is the next best outside the top bracket and 6% is hardly stingy and the 7/2 first three is good.
May I suggest £10 on Ding Liren to win at 17/1?
And £20 on Ding Liren to finish in the top 3 at 7/2, please?I’m open to views from the other chess people, of course, plus any general maths/betting observations. Starts tomorrow, by the way.
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