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arbboy
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« Reply #119415 on: July 09, 2016, 04:02:26 PM » |
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BBC's reverse racism policy at Wimbledon is truely incredible year after year. How many black people are in the crowd today outside of William's box? Less than 2%? Every other crowd shot has a black person as the main person in shot.
I am amazed black people don't complain about it as they make it so obviously an issue at the bbc. Amazing a former BBC cameraman doesn't come out and say 'directors always asked me to focus in on black people in the crowd'. It just must happen and not spoken about. Happens far too often to be chance.
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« Last Edit: July 09, 2016, 04:10:08 PM by arbboy »
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Tal
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« Reply #119416 on: July 09, 2016, 04:35:24 PM » |
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Any thoughts on Boynton in the 4pm at Newmarket?
8/1 and three places 1/4 means we beat the 2.65ish on the place part on the exchange.
Choral and £3.65 have the prices.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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chelseaboy
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« Reply #119417 on: July 09, 2016, 04:58:19 PM » |
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Any thoughts on Boynton in the 4pm at Newmarket?
8/1 and three places 1/4 means we beat the 2.65ish on the place part on the exchange.
Choral and £3.65 have the prices.
GREAT SHOUT!! CHEERS!! |
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Micko
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« Reply #119418 on: July 09, 2016, 05:00:17 PM » |
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Any thoughts on Boynton in the 4pm at Newmarket?
8/1 and three places 1/4 means we beat the 2.65ish on the place part on the exchange.
Choral and £3.65 have the prices.
Thank you Tal - stayed on very well! |
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Tal
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« Reply #119419 on: July 09, 2016, 05:06:49 PM » |
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Luvvly jubbly
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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arbboy
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« Reply #119420 on: July 09, 2016, 05:11:19 PM » |
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Luvvly jubbly
NIce one son. Helps with the SDS bet as well with Moore done for 5 figures at 1.01 in running. |
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Doobs
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« Reply #119421 on: July 09, 2016, 05:18:48 PM » |
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Well done Tal. Thread is safe in your hands.
You just missed the Utah Jazz at the Vdara. Their coach arrived just before my taxi, so got to walk through the doors with them. Was very very weird. They really are like stretched people and made me feel so small. Was going to take my insider knowledge of the superhumaness to the bookies; but when I looked up their results it turns out the Jazz are pretty rubbish. Glad I didn't have to share a lift with any of the real superhumans from the other teams.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Doobs
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« Reply #119422 on: July 09, 2016, 05:31:04 PM » |
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Waady looks big here
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Doobs
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« Reply #119423 on: July 09, 2016, 05:36:00 PM » |
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Waady looks big here
Not big enough though. Limato all over the place there. Astonishing. |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Tal
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« Reply #119424 on: July 09, 2016, 05:42:55 PM » |
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Well done Tal. Thread is safe in your hands.
You just missed the Utah Jazz at the Vdara. Their coach arrived just before my taxi, so got to walk through the doors with them. Was very very weird. They really are like stretched people and made me feel so small. Was going to take my insider knowledge of the superhumaness to the bookies; but when I looked up their results it turns out the Jazz are pretty rubbish. Glad I didn't have to share a lift with any of the real superhumans from the other teams.
 Nice. |
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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Ledders
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« Reply #119425 on: July 09, 2016, 08:13:31 PM » |
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bet365 are betting the outrights for the Euro final to 104% http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/winnerhttp://extra.bet365.com/promotions/en/soccer/penalty-payback/?affiliate=365_004903They offer refunds (in cash with no limits - i confirmed this in person with the PR man at Uttox on Weds when discussing the event and said surely you are not still offering this promo at the final stage and he confirmed they are as do the rules link above) on losing outright bets on this market should a team get knocked out on pens. A team going out on pens tomorrow is a shade shorter than 5/1 on the bf prices which are tight. Pretty sure we can back both teams at 104% book and can't lose given the refund. too busy to do the maths on it can someone else. If we are picking one team to back then Portugal seem the 'better' choice based on bf prices. I have just logged into my 1% bet365 account and the euro winner market seems to be totally unlimited. (I can win £40k on either outcome - assume they don't have this as a default to win £4m for a standard customer). Is this the same for everyone else? Maybe they have put this market on full limits for every customer. I may well be wrong but I think France are the bet despite the worse price. 25% of the time Portugal win it's on pens compared to 12% for France so we get more refunds on the France bet. Is this right? |
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arbboy
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« Reply #119426 on: July 09, 2016, 08:15:06 PM » |
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bet365 are betting the outrights for the Euro final to 104% http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/winnerhttp://extra.bet365.com/promotions/en/soccer/penalty-payback/?affiliate=365_004903They offer refunds (in cash with no limits - i confirmed this in person with the PR man at Uttox on Weds when discussing the event and said surely you are not still offering this promo at the final stage and he confirmed they are as do the rules link above) on losing outright bets on this market should a team get knocked out on pens. A team going out on pens tomorrow is a shade shorter than 5/1 on the bf prices which are tight. Pretty sure we can back both teams at 104% book and can't lose given the refund. too busy to do the maths on it can someone else. If we are picking one team to back then Portugal seem the 'better' choice based on bf prices. I have just logged into my 1% bet365 account and the euro winner market seems to be totally unlimited. (I can win £40k on either outcome - assume they don't have this as a default to win £4m for a standard customer). Is this the same for everyone else? Maybe they have put this market on full limits for every customer. I may well be wrong but I think France are the bet despite the worse price. 25% of the time Portugal win it's on pens compared to 12% for France so we get more refunds on the France bet. Is this right? No it isn't right. If it goes to a Pen shootout it will be a total flip who is most likely to win. Not sure where you get your %'s from. |
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Ledders
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« Reply #119427 on: July 09, 2016, 08:20:19 PM » |
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I was divvying up the outright win %'s.
Either teams win 8% of the time on pens overall
Portugal win 33% of the time, so 25% of wins are on pens
France win 66% of the time, so 12% are on pens.
The win bet on France has lower ev but the losses are compensated more is what I thought.
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« Last Edit: July 09, 2016, 08:22:53 PM by Ledders »
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Doobs
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« Reply #119428 on: July 09, 2016, 08:26:39 PM » |
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I was divvying up the outright win %'s.
Either teams win 8% of the time on pens overall
Portugal win 33% of the time, so 25% of wins are on pens
France win 66% of the time, so 12% are on pens.
The win bet on France has lower ev but the losses are compensated more is what I thought.
A higher percentage of losers are compensated isn't the same as a higher percentage of bets. The latter is what we are looking for, so the +Ev is going to be much the same whichever way we bet? |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Ledders
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« Reply #119429 on: July 09, 2016, 08:34:49 PM » |
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£100 stake
Portugal
+187.5 *.333
-100*.59
=+3.44
France
4/9
+44.44*.666
-100*.26
+3.59
I've spent far too long on this and it doesn't really matter but I think that maths is correct bar rounding issues
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