Tips for Tikay

[NoCardDSC]

I'm going to suggest we have a bet on Byeong-Hun An to win the Olympic golf. 

With many of the big names missing this week I think Byeong-Hun An is going to see this as a huge opportunity to take advantage of that a put in a very respectable performance. Once becoming the youngest ever US Amateur winner at 17 there were high hopes for Ben An. He went on to win the BMW with a -21 at Wentworth in 2015 and lost in a playoff this year in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Currently ranked 35th in the world and having very good stats off the tee (Driving distance 25th) and ranked 42nd on birdie average. I feel he has a good chance of a medal here.

Further to this, South Koreans become exempt from Conscription, other wise known as mandatory military service if they are to win an Olympic medal. Byeong-Hun An will be well aware of this with both of his parents winning one in table tennis in 1988.

Byeong-Hun An 45/1 - Sportingbet
£10 ew

[TightEnd]

sportingbet is only 3 places

betfred is 5 places, same price

Men's Outright - Men's Olympics Rio 2016
Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5   Byeong Hun An   40/1   
Total stake   20.00
Estimated return   520.00
Full stake   20.00
Full estimated return   520.00

[doubleup]

Just as a general guide on these golf prices, for a golfer that is a true 40-1 shot the EW value is

1/3 3 places 102%
1/4 4 places 104%
1/4 5 places 117%
1/5 6 places 116%

With the usual caveat that the calc assumes that the golfer has an equal chance of winning and being placed.

[T_Mar]

Just as a general guide on these golf prices, for a golfer that is a true 40-1 shot the EW value is

1/3 3 places 102%
1/4 4 places 104%
1/4 5 places 117%
1/5 6 places 116%

With the usual caveat that the calc assumes that the golfer has an equal chance of winning and being placed.

Just so I understand this - You're saying there is 17% edge on place part of bet if you can bet true 40/1 shot @ 40/1 with those terms...and so on

Have you calculated overround with all 60 runners to work that out ?

Cheers

[doubleup]

Just as a general guide on these golf prices, for a golfer that is a true 40-1 shot the EW value is

1/3 3 places 102%
1/4 4 places 104%
1/4 5 places 117%
1/5 6 places 116%

With the usual caveat that the calc assumes that the golfer has an equal chance of winning and being placed.

Just so I understand this - You're saying there is 17% edge on place part of bet if you can bet true 40/1 shot @ 40/1 with those terms...and so on

Have you calculated overround with all 60 runners to work that out ?

Cheers

The overround doesn't matter if you are getting 40-1 about a 40-1 shot.  But there is fat on the bone to cover any overlay (ie you are getting 40-1 about a 45-1 shot) with 5 or more places.  

btw 40-1 is just an example, the theory works for most golfers 20-1 or more.  It breaks down at lower odds because they have a higher chance of winning than placing.  Also remember at bigger odds the bookie overlay gets larger.

[hhyftrftdr]

How do we feel about Swansea to be relegated? 7/2 with BV amongst others...

Without a ball even being kicked yet, it feels like Hull, Burnley and X....and I think X could be one of the more established clubs. There is enough about Bournemouth and Watford to stay up, Boro have made some decent looking signings, West Brom have Pulis (though I think they could be on borrowed time sooner or later), Sunderland have Moyes now plus a knack of doing enough to stay up, Palace too many good players despite little threat up top.

Ayew and Williams gone just before the season starts. Seem to be putting their eggs in a Spanish basket with Llorente and this Baston due to arrive; could be a Michu year 1 or a Michu year 3. Manager doesn't convince me despite doing a reasonable job last year. Something has got to give this season....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Ps, he's a bastard but can still get Costa at 20s for top scorer with Choral.

[horseplayer]

https://t.co/5ySegbq64p

Highlights of the game under investigation from the Welsh league last season

Nothing to see here!

[DungBeetle]

With regards to relegation I must say I am a bit worried by Watford's preseason.  They don't seem to have got to grips with the 3-5-2 and have a very hard first 5 games.  It's already in the price though I think.

[tikay]

https://t.co/5ySegbq64p

Highlights of the game under investigation from the Welsh league last season

Nothing to see here!

Can't get that link to do anything, John, just a still photo. Might be my PC, of course.

[tikay]

Haven't posted for a while but still follow and felt like contributing

Olympic Mens Golf only 60 runners and 23 currently under 100 on BF., Books still paying 5 places 1/4 which is favourable

Good spot to get a few on side I think.. My suggestion is Nicolas Colsaerts who's been in decent enough form (3 top 3's in last 10) one of which was at castle Stuart which Steve Rawlings (BF tipster) has called out as having strong ties  to the course they playing in Rio... Colsaerts was 3rd at same course in 2011 so no fluke and has some other odd bits of links form which is a positive apparently

Other than his form chance he's bang up for this, great grandad was an Olympian and he's been blogging / tweeting about how proud he is following in footsteps etc etc

Currently 70 on BF, Worth a few quid @ 66/1 5 places 1/4

help requested at bet365 please

a lot of places are 1/3 1,2,3 and bet365 is 1/5 1,2,3,4

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/golf/olympic-mens/mens-olympics/winner

anyone able to do £10 e/w at 66-1?

365 are 5 1/4 ... You can have 10ew of mine No problem

Most helpful Mr Mar, thank you.

PM me with your Bank Details, please, & I'll settle up. 

[BiloxiDesire]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/stoke/top-goalscorer

Not saying that Diouf is necessarily going to set the world on fire but as the lone recognised first choice striker for stoke, doesn't 10/1 look a bit big for him being team top goalscorer, Aurnautovic was top goalscorer for them last season and is favourite again this year, getting 12 goals last year, from 33 starts. Diouf only made 12 starts and got 5 goals so a bit better ratio of goals to games for Diouf, when Diouf was playing more consistently the season before last he was the top goalscorer with 11 goals in 28 starts. Looking like he is going to be the first choice striker going into the start of the season again this year. Obviously there's the chance that they bring a striker in (Berahino?) and Diouf drops down to a benched role?

10/1 with Bet365... thoughts?

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/stoke/top-goalscorer

Not saying that Diouf is necessarily going to set the world on fire but as the lone recognised first choice striker for stoke, doesn't 10/1 look a bit big for him being team top goalscorer, Aurnautovic was top goalscorer for them last season and is favourite again this year, getting 12 goals last year, from 33 starts. Diouf only made 12 starts and got 5 goals so a bit better ratio of goals to games for Diouf, when Diouf was playing more consistently the season before last he was the top goalscorer with 11 goals in 28 starts. Looking like he is going to be the first choice striker going into the start of the season again this year. Obviously there's the chance that they bring a striker in (Berahino?) and Diouf drops down to a benched role?

10/1 with Bet365... thoughts?

what is stoke's first choice front 4 please?

arnautovic and  Shaqiri  in the attacking midfield 3 with who?

Joselu, Diouf or Bojan up top?

[TightEnd]

How do we feel about Swansea to be relegated? 7/2 with BV amongst others...

Without a ball even being kicked yet, it feels like Hull, Burnley and X....and I think X could be one of the more established clubs. There is enough about Bournemouth and Watford to stay up, Boro have made some decent looking signings, West Brom have Pulis (though I think they could be on borrowed time sooner or later), Sunderland have Moyes now plus a knack of doing enough to stay up, Palace too many good players despite little threat up top.

Ayew and Williams gone just before the season starts. Seem to be putting their eggs in a Spanish basket with Llorente and this Baston due to arrive; could be a Michu year 1 or a Michu year 3. Manager doesn't convince me despite doing a reasonable job last year. Something has got to give this season....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Ps, he's a bastard but can still get Costa at 20s for top scorer with Choral.

isn't the concern with Costa that Conte appears to be trying to sell him, probably overseas?

as for Swansea: 7/2

opinions welcome.....

[TightEnd]

Haven't posted for a while but still follow and felt like contributing

Olympic Mens Golf only 60 runners and 23 currently under 100 on BF., Books still paying 5 places 1/4 which is favourable

Good spot to get a few on side I think.. My suggestion is Nicolas Colsaerts who's been in decent enough form (3 top 3's in last 10) one of which was at castle Stuart which Steve Rawlings (BF tipster) has called out as having strong ties  to the course they playing in Rio... Colsaerts was 3rd at same course in 2011 so no fluke and has some other odd bits of links form which is a positive apparently

Other than his form chance he's bang up for this, great grandad was an Olympian and he's been blogging / tweeting about how proud he is following in footsteps etc etc

Currently 70 on BF, Worth a few quid @ 66/1 5 places 1/4

help requested at bet365 please

a lot of places are 1/3 1,2,3 and bet365 is 1/5 1,2,3,4

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/golf/olympic-mens/mens-olympics/winner

anyone able to do £10 e/w at 66-1?

You can have 5 e/w of mine on both Lingmerth and Colsaerts.

i missed this yesterday, will take them as its not started yet (just) if thats ok

[BiloxiDesire]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/stoke/top-goalscorer

Not saying that Diouf is necessarily going to set the world on fire but as the lone recognised first choice striker for stoke, doesn't 10/1 look a bit big for him being team top goalscorer, Aurnautovic was top goalscorer for them last season and is favourite again this year, getting 12 goals last year, from 33 starts. Diouf only made 12 starts and got 5 goals so a bit better ratio of goals to games for Diouf, when Diouf was playing more consistently the season before last he was the top goalscorer with 11 goals in 28 starts. Looking like he is going to be the first choice striker going into the start of the season again this year. Obviously there's the chance that they bring a striker in (Berahino?) and Diouf drops down to a benched role?

10/1 with Bet365... thoughts?

what is stoke's first choice front 4 please?

arnautovic and  Shaqiri  in the attacking midfield 3 with who?

Joselu, Diouf or Bojan up top?

Arnautovic, Shaqiri & Bojan as the three in behind one of Diouf or Joselu I would think, predictions seem to be fairly split as to whether it will be Joselu or Diouf as first choice. Joselu is around at 12/1 as well though.

This market just seems strange to me that you have 2 attacking midfielders as favourites ahead of out and out strikers, even Jon Walters is ahead of these 2 and he's never scored more than 8 PL goals.