tikay is away, so doubt these will be placed but anyway. i wrote it so you are seeing it
2016-2017 European Rugby Champions Cup Preview
The 2016–17 European Rugby Champions Cup is the third ERCC, the annual club competition for teams from the top six nations in European rugby.
English side Saracens are the reigning champions, having beaten Racing 92 of France in the 2016 final in Lyon.
The opening round of the tournament will take place this weekend of. The final will take place on the 13 May at Murrayfield
Twenty clubs from the three major European domestic and regional leagues will compete in the Champions Cup. Nineteen of these will qualify directly as a result of their league performance.
The distribution of teams is:
• England: 6 clubs
o The top 6 clubs in the Aviva Premiership
• France: 7 clubs
o The top 6 clubs in the Top 14
o Montpellier won the 2015 Challenge cup (the second tier competition)
• Ireland, Italy, Scotland & Wales: 7 clubs, based on performance in the Pro 12.
o The best placed club from each nation (how Zebre get in, Scarlets the Welsh representative).
o The 3 highest ranked clubs not qualified thereafter.
This distribution of clubs in the competition is directly related to the financial strength of different counties in the six nations. The richest nations in their domestic game England and France are best placed in the competition and the size of their playing budgets even within a salary cap environment dwarf those from the Pro 12 clubs
The 20 competing teams are seeded and split into four tiers, each containing 5 teams. Five pools play out and the pool winners and three best runners up make the knockout stages. Teams receive 4 points for a win, 2 points for a draw, 1 attacking bonus point for scoring four or more tries in a match and 1 defensive bonus point for losing a match by seven points or fewer.
The Pool draw is as follows
1 Racing 92, Glasgow Warriors, Leicester Tigers, Munster
2 Connacht, Wasps, Toulouse, Zebre
3 Saracens, Toulon, Scarlets, Sale Sharks
4 Leinster, Montpellier, Northampton, Castres
5 Exeter Chiefs, Clermont, Ulster, Bordeaux-Begles.
Ante-post odds for the competition are as follows. Each way odds of half the odds 1,2 are available widely
Saracens 3/1
Racing 9/2
Toulon 11/2
Wasps 7/1
Clermont 8/1
Montpellier 14/1
Toulouse 20/1
Leinster 33/1
Bar 40/1
So we can see the top seven clubs in the betting hail from England and France
Saracens are worthy favourites, an extremely good squad with depth and packed with young talent (Owen Farrell, Jamie George, Maro Itoje etc)and already looking for a “double double” having won the Aviva Premiership and ERCC last year. Could well be at the start of a "dynasty" where they win the lot for a few years but at 3/1 for abet lasting til next May, the market knows it
Five of the top 8 in the betting are French clubs. So far this season Clermont lead the Top 14 and racing and Toulon have not quite hit form. The French clubs often packed with Southern Hemisphere talent are formidable at home but frequently poor travelers. I regard the top English teams as stronger currently.
In that regard Wasps are a very interesting price as an alternative to Saracens. A side full of flair they lie second in the Aviva Premiership and lost in the semi finals of this competition last year to Saracens 24-17. Not quite the standard of Saracens yet (particularly defensively) but capable of putting points on any side. For those who watch it, an exciting counter-attacking side that should, if they play to form, be racking up bonus point wins in this group...
I like them particularly because of the composition of their pool group containing the weakest top seed Connacht, surprise winners of the Pro 12 last year but struggling this and the single Italian team in the competition Zebre. Between them Wasps and Toulouse should carve up the group and with two weaker teams the pool should provide two of the eight quarter-finalists
At a longer price the leading Irish province Leinster should go well at 33/1. They contain the core of the Ireland national side and are an experienced side that will be competitive throughout and have a group they can get out of (not easy to pick a team to get out of a group ahead of saracens/toulon or clermont/exeter/ulster etc) .
Leinster were at the sharp end of the competition before Toulon and more recently Saracens won it. Last year they didn't get out of their pool but that was an outlier year. The ERCC followed straight after the RWC2015 and shorn of their internationals the Irish sides as a whole all struggled...lack of quality depth compared to the English/French teams
Northampton (lost 4 out of six league games this season )and Castres the weakest of the French teams are both beatable in that pool and Leinster should be fighting Montpellier to the pool win
Basically looking for a couple of sides to get out of their pools at a price, then that bit of luck you need to get through the last 8/last 4 ie avoid drawing Saracens or Toulon away
Recommendations
£20 e/w Wasps to win the 2016-2017 ERCC 7/1 Each way (1/2 1,2)
£15 e/w Leinster to win the 2016-2017 ERCC 33/1 Each Way (1/2 1,2)
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/winner
Author