Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Not around much today, so here are some thoughts on bets for later. I'll leave them here for discussion:

1. Tavon Austin over 50.5 receiving yards in LA Rams @ Detroit Lions

The Lions are playing pretty well on offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has shown good progress under the best name of all time Jimbob Cooter.

The Rams will run the ball a lot but they will also need to get some passes in. The competition between wide receiver Tavon Austin and Detroit's Quandre Diggs is a mismatch. Teams have been exploiting this by targeting Diggs and Austin is one of the favourite targets for the Rams.

When the Rams have played a good pass defense, Austin has struggled, but that's to be expected. He'll be fine against this team.

Red Shouty Man at 50.5 is too low, even at 17/20. Would have put the line here in the mid sixties.


2. AJ Green over 80.5 receiving yards for Cincinnati Bengals against New England Patriots

Speaking of mismatches, the Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan has allowed Terrell Prior (Cleveland) and Robert Woods (Buffalo) 136 combined yards over the last two weeks. He will be marking Green today. Number Fire says he's getting targeted 24% of the time he is covering someone this season and that volume is ripe for a big performance. He is also 13cm shorter than Green.

At the risk of upsetting the fans, the Bengals defense has been mediocre this term and that sets up nicely for a game in which they will need to throw the ball. Would not be surprised in the least if Green goes over 100 today.

BMU is 80.5 for 10/11. Yes please.

[Tal]

Tried to get the BMU one on for Fred. They just laughed.

The 17/20 with red shouty man is OK if we have to.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Not around much today, so here are some thoughts on bets for later. I'll leave them here for discussion:

1. Tavon Austin over 50.5 receiving yards in LA Rams @ Detroit Lions

The Lions are playing pretty well on offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has shown good progress under the best name of all time Jimbob Cooter.

The Rams will run the ball a lot but they will also need to get some passes in. The competition between wide receiver Tavon Austin and Detroit's Quandre Diggs is a mismatch. Teams have been exploiting this by targeting Diggs and Austin is one of the favourite targets for the Rams.

When the Rams have played a good pass defense, Austin has struggled, but that's to be expected. He'll be fine against this team.

Red Shouty Man at 50.5 is too low, even at 17/20. Would have put the line here in the mid sixties.


2. AJ Green over 80.5 receiving yards for Cincinnati Bengals against New England Patriots

Speaking of mismatches, the Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan has allowed Terrell Prior (Cleveland) and Robert Woods (Buffalo) 136 combined yards over the last two weeks. He will be marking Green today. Number Fire says he's getting targeted 24% of the time he is covering someone this season and that volume is ripe for a big performance. He is also 13cm shorter than Green.

At the risk of upsetting the fans, the Bengals defense has been mediocre this term and that sets up nicely for a game in which they will need to throw the ball. Would not be surprised in the least if Green goes over 100 today.

BMU is 80.5 for 10/11. Yes please.

Green made the injury report this week with a calf problem but how serious is anybody's guess..

[exstream]

Oh wtf
I could have sworn that green bet said unders
I've now got a under 86.5 at betfair sports book bet
Great lol

[Tal]

Oh wtf
I could have sworn that green bet said unders
I've now got a under 86.5 at betfair sports book bet
Great lol

Over 80.5 and play the middle like a boss?

[Killerkilsby]

Not sure if anyone saw, but this was hilarious during Hudds Sheff Weds game.

http://www.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/football/competitions/championship/10620030/wallace-takes-a-sneaky-look

[Cavey007]

Not around much today, so here are some thoughts on bets for later. I'll leave them here for discussion:

1. Tavon Austin over 50.5 receiving yards in LA Rams @ Detroit Lions

The Lions are playing pretty well on offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has shown good progress under the best name of all time Jimbob Cooter.

The Rams will run the ball a lot but they will also need to get some passes in. The competition between wide receiver Tavon Austin and Detroit's Quandre Diggs is a mismatch. Teams have been exploiting this by targeting Diggs and Austin is one of the favourite targets for the Rams.

When the Rams have played a good pass defense, Austin has struggled, but that's to be expected. He'll be fine against this team.

Red Shouty Man at 50.5 is too low, even at 17/20. Would have put the line here in the mid sixties.


2. AJ Green over 80.5 receiving yards for Cincinnati Bengals against New England Patriots

Speaking of mismatches, the Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan has allowed Terrell Prior (Cleveland) and Robert Woods (Buffalo) 136 combined yards over the last two weeks. He will be marking Green today. Number Fire says he's getting targeted 24% of the time he is covering someone this season and that volume is ripe for a big performance. He is also 13cm shorter than Green.

At the risk of upsetting the fans, the Bengals defense has been mediocre this term and that sets up nicely for a game in which they will need to throw the ball. Would not be surprised in the least if Green goes over 100 today.

BMU is 80.5 for 10/11. Yes please.

Green made the injury report this week with a calf problem but how serious is anybody's guess..

I wouldn't worry about Green s health. He'll be fine. And yes the Bengals defence has been awful. The whole team in general has been poor. Can't establish the run. Can't stop anything happening. It's incredibly frustrating. They will be playing from behind most of the game. So green yards makes sense to me.

My main one for the night is Demarco Murray anytime at 10/11 with PP. Also have a treble of Eagles -3 Texans -3 and o46 in the Seahawks game. If I was to recommend one for the thread it'd be overs in the Seahawks game. I think it's going to be very high scoring

[Tal]

Austin didn't get his yards but Green did.

[hector62]

Tighty.

If you get a moment could we have £10e/w on Kyle Edmund to win the European open in Antwerp this week. It would need to go on before 12ish. Oddschecker is not showing any prices for me but I have checked a few sites and 16's is available with betfred and Ladbrokes.

[TightEnd]

10/17/2016 11:06:34 AM    619/
666    W:10.00 S:10.00    Single    ATP European Open/Tournament Outright    Edmund, Kyle       16/1    Open    O    £20.00

[Weetabix]

16/1 must be an error on Edmund.

[Horneris]

16/1 must be an error on Edmund.

Whys that? I know hes been playing really good tennis but just three of his potential opponents are Ferrer (past his best admittedly but I'd have to have him as fav), Gasquet/Simon and Goffin.

[Weetabix]

He is around a 1/2 shot to beat this marchenko and after that he is the underdog right the way through. Ferrer is way past his best but played pretty well last week before Murray took him apart as usual.  Even if he shocked ferrer he still has tricky matches v seppi/delbonis then likely Simon who will just toy with him.   Do you not agree this is close to the worst 16/1 shot on a tennis tournament you can get?  It really is a shocking price.

[TightEnd]

He is around a 1/2 shot to beat this marchenko and after that he is the underdog right the way through. Ferrer is way past his best but played pretty well last week before Murray took him apart as usual.  Even if he shocked ferrer he still has tricky matches v seppi/delbonis then likely Simon who will just toy with him.   Do you not agree this is close to the worst 16/1 shot on a tennis tournament you can get?  It really is a shocking price.

its much better to comment constructively in the time between recommendation and placing the bet (here, two hours) please

exaggeration doesn't help much either. i am fairly certain we've had worse bets.

as it is aftertiming the criticism isn't as helpful as you think it is. Especially if repeated, as you do it frequently

[arbboy]

He is around a 1/2 shot to beat this marchenko and after that he is the underdog right the way through. Ferrer is way past his best but played pretty well last week before Murray took him apart as usual.  Even if he shocked ferrer he still has tricky matches v seppi/delbonis then likely Simon who will just toy with him.   Do you not agree this is close to the worst 16/1 shot on a tennis tournament you can get?  It really is a shocking price.

If he is a 1/2 poke for his first game and a 5/6 (55% likely to win) in each of the following 4 rounds (including the final) then that comes to a 16/1 5 timer.  Therefore for 16/1 to be value he has to go off shorter than 5/6 (in a 100% book not 5/6 each of two because that is a flip without margin) on average in each of the remaining four games.  Like weetabix says it is pretty hard to see how he goes off shorter than 5/6 in any of them tbh unless the draw massively collapses (this is possible towards the end of the season as players ease off with safe rankings they are happy with).  Facing Ferrer in the 2nd round isn't ideal as Ferrer is one player who never eases off and uses this time of year to mop up easy ranking points historically to artificially boost his ranking relative to his talent level.   Even if he does go off an average of 5/6 for the last four rounds we are just buying variance with the bet anyway by backing a 16/1 poke at 16/1 albeit the place price will be slight fav as he will likely go off odds against in any final he reaches.  Edmund looks closer to a 40/1 shot than a 16/1 poke based on that analysis win only to 100%

Paddy power were happy to lay 22/1 Edmund pre event as well fwiw without cutting the price at any time per oddschecker records.