Tips for Tikay

[Nakor]

I know Fred can't get on with PP but the 16s on Adam Scott in the CIMB Classic looks a real each way gift for anyone that can. Happy to elaborate if anyone wants.

Can do this for Fred if required.

[Weetabix]

I don't think this is rude.  The price of 16/1 is a shocker, not even close to being a fair price. It's fair enough if hector likes Edmunds chances in the tournament, nothing wrong with that one bit. Would it not be better to voice his opinions of Kyle's chances this week and how he feels he could go deep, then follow that by saying how garbage the 16/1 is, rather than just taking top price available and assuming it's a good value pick? He put up Cuevas a few months ago and the price was more than fair that week and I think I posted and said that.  If someone put up a golf bet as rinswun has, I wouldn't have a clue it it's a fair price or not, this edmund price clearly isn't.  I have said my piece.  It wasn't meant to be aftertiming.

[Weetabix]

I would go with the boring goffin v Simon final. At this stage of the season you get a lot of quirky results, I agree it's not a strong event and Edmund has had some decent wins.

[Weetabix]

Just having a look at the Stockholm event  now, looks a decent tournament. Delpotro would be another boring pick, 4/1 fav and the class act of the field.  How about you?  Steve Johnson is still up at 18/1 yet he is out.

[arbboy]

Can't Hector give us a rough break down of why the 16/1 is too big and what price, based on the draw and each potential match up after Ferrer (there are only 3 in order to win the event) what price he makes Edmund to 100%?  Then we can know how big an edge we feel we have betting him at 16/1?  Hector must make Edmund a decent fav over Ferrer to even consider 16/1 to be value.  I would expect a max bet on Edmund in the 2nd round match at the expected prices.

[bergeroo]

I like Dimitrov in Stockholm and have had a small bet. He has an incredibly weak quarter of the draw. 6/1 available in a couple of places if you can get on. He has put together some form in recent weeks although of course, still some frustrating inconsistency.

Semi finals and finals should be competitive, but I think Dimitrov has by far the easiest route there. Del Potro opens vs Isner (a stinker for them both) and also has Karlovic (not the best on Hardcourt but gotta win those tiebreaks) and the talented Verdasco.

In the top half Monfils has to go through Sock. Draw has opened up for Zverev (7/1 BFSB) now with the loss of Johnson

[Weetabix]

Best of luck with Dimitrov, he seems to have turned a corner over the last couple of month playing some great tennis.  You have to be looking at semis with your bet, at least.  Isner  rarely plays well in Europe but it is a tricky opener for delpo, tie breakers at best for isner. Delpo plays very well indoors, you can't see isner breaking his serve.

[bergeroo]

The Russian tournament is interesting. By far the weakest of the three. Bautista Agut starts as the favourite and will get a couple of days to rest up after a big week in China. The other favourite Troicki is also in the top half.

The two top seeds in the bottom half are the eminently beatable Kohlschreiber and Ramos Vinolas. Looking for someone to take an each way flier on but nobody stands out in a v.poor tournament

PS I'm a tennis fan, certainly not an expert. I really like it when people debate the pros and cons of different markets and bets. I found the tennis interesting this week with three tournaments going on, so I had a look at the form lines and the draws this morning and will be watching a bit this week.

[Weetabix]

You never quite know how players will fair coming back to Europe.  The courts were perfect for Bautista agut. Finalist last year so hard to see him out of the frame.  Ramos number 2 seed says a lot about how poor this event is, kohlschreiber clearly a class above this field on form but he has been in hibernation since pre Wimbledon.  Bautista in the final vs kuznetsov or tipsarevic who seems to be playing well again. As you say it's a messy bottom half of the draw with bautista looking a strong choice in the top half.

[Tal]

A quick update on our long term NFL positions.

Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (£50 @ 2/1)

The only unbeaten team in the NFL, the Vikings look a truly brutal team to play against. Current Standings in the North:

Minnesota 5-0
Green Bay 3-2
Detroit 3-3
Chicago 1-5

Having beaten Green Bay this season, the Vikings also enjoy a tie break in their favour for the time being.

Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (£20 @ 12/1)

This looks less good. The Cardinals beat up a Jets team that is trying its hardest to disappoint half of New York City last night.

Now back to 3-3, there is at least some momentum. However, with quarterback Carson Palmer injured last night and backup Drew Stanton not an adequate replacement, this one looks a tough sell right now.

San Francisco 49ers to have the NFL's worst record (£50 @ 7/1)

We have a very competitive team for this one. The Niners have changed their quarterback (who had week 6 in the sweepstake?) So we have Colin Kaepernick under center now. He is a shadow of the QB who led this team to the super bowl and the object of a hideous amount of abuse from sections of all fans and media.

The team simply gave up against Buffalo on Sunday. Watch the highlights and tell me the defense were trying in the third and fourth quarters. Defenders stood and watched touchdown after touchdown. The Bills romped to a 45-16 win.

Cleveland have lost all 6 of their games so far, so the 49ers' win against the LA Rams in week 1 is counting against us so far. There are other teams on 1-5: The New York Jets, the Chicago Bears and (incredibly) the Carolina Panthers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points over 350.5 (£22 @ 10/11)

A bye for the Buccs this weekend and not enough in Carolina the week before:

31
7
32
7
17

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) to get the most receiving yards (£50 @ 9/2)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=RECEIVING&conference=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RECEIVING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

11th and not being helped by the other receivers. Also concerns now over injury to the quarterback, Big Ben Roethlisberger.

David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) to have the most rushing yards (£25 each way (1,2,3, 1/4) at 18/1)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&statisticPositionCategory=&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=0&role=

Third and firing. Averaging 94.7 yards per game is 1,500 territory. Zeke Elliott's picture will be replacing the Kante one above Tighty's mantelpiece but we are in the competition for sure.

[tikay]

^^^^

Good work Tal, thanks. That's exactly how Fred is supposed to work - making it fun, a bit of banter, & a few sweats.

Am rather hoping the David Johnson bet gets home - that's the last remaining open bet on our now defunct BMU account. That'd be a sweet way to sign off.

mantelpiece - you are so old-fashioned for a comparatively young man. It's a lovely word, mind, but rarely used these days. Sort of dates back to Karabiner & Adzy's era.  

[baldock92]

Just had a quick glance at the prices for this weeks PL games. I believe Stoke at 8/5 with victors or Sportingbet is too a little bit too big.

We've had a slow start to the season, only picking up our first win at the weekend against sunderland, but we've not been as terrible as results suggest. The past few games we've looked very positive, beating sunderland at home, drawing away at old trafford and drawing at home to west brom due to a 90th minute concession. Our defence looks a lot more solid now than the first couple of games, with Shawcross and Martins Indi starting to form a good CB partnership. Also our back up keeper Grant looks a lot safer than shaky Shay Given. Going forward we're looking more threatening than before, still nothing special but it should be enough to put 1 or two past Hull, who have begun to look as bad as people predicted they would be before the season begun, highlighted by a 6-1 thumping to Bournemouth last time out.

I know fred can't get on with betvictor but if it's wanted I can put a bit on if needed.

[Tonibell]

Two penn'orth: I love to see selections batted about a bit and learn a lot more from that than from silent autobets.

[tikay]

Two penn'orth: I love to see selections batted about a bit and learn a lot more from that than from silent autobets.

Think we all do, for sure, & that's not in doubt.

We want some balance though. It's very easy just to diss stuff, but not put any bets up, it's like a Freeroll. Balance is key.

The Fred contributors have made followers close to £14,000, at an ROI of 7.53%. And it's FREE TO VIEW. So it behoves some touch, & feel, imo. 

[Tonibell]

Sure, but they weren't just dissing stuff. They outlined their reasoning - far more so than the original selection which was just a pick. I find it a fascinating read. There's not many giving a gambling education away free on the 'net and I would guess it's made me more money in the long run than just tips.