Tips for Tikay

[Horneris]

He is around a 1/2 shot to beat this marchenko and after that he is the underdog right the way through. Ferrer is way past his best but played pretty well last week before Murray took him apart as usual.  Even if he shocked ferrer he still has tricky matches v seppi/delbonis then likely Simon who will just toy with him.   Do you not agree this is close to the worst 16/1 shot on a tennis tournament you can get?  It really is a shocking price.

haha I thought you were saying 16/1 was too big. Hes 20s with Paddy Power now, probably closer to the mark.

[tikay]

Sure, but they weren't just dissing stuff. They outlined their reasoning - far more so than the original selection which was just a pick. I find it a fascinating read. There's not many giving a gambling education away free on the 'net and I would guess it's made me more money in the long run than just tips.

Some do. It does not count for much if we see criticism but never praise. Some "wp" for good bets never goes amiss, & then it's an easier pill to swallow.

Only a very small handful here ever acknowledge good bets. And I think we've had a few of them. It's a balance & tone thing, & we need to give & take.

[The Camel]

Can't Hector give us a rough break down of why the 16/1 is too big and what price, based on the draw and each potential match up after Ferrer (there are only 3 in order to win the event) what price he makes Edmund to 100%?  Then we can know how big an edge we feel we have betting him at 16/1?  Hector must make Edmund a decent fav over Ferrer to even consider 16/1 to be value.  I would expect a max bet on Edmund in the 2nd round match at the expected prices.

Good luck with that.

[Tonibell]

And good luck with getting Arbboy into the Diplomatic Corps 

I completely agree, of course, that it should be kept civil. Just piping up to say how much I get from debate not just tips.

[bergeroo]

In the Antwerp tennis I'm betting each way on two guys in the very weak second quarter. Mahut and Fritz.

As far as I can see 356 are the only site to offer quarter betting. Odds to win their quarter as below with overall odds to win the tournament afterwards

Goffin 4/9 ---- 9/4
Paire and Sousa 5/1 ---- 25/1

Mahut 13/8 ----- 20/1
Fritz 5/2 ------ 40/1
Cuevas 11/4 ------ 25/1
G Lopez 7/2 ----- 33/1

Gasquet 4/6 ---- 6/1
Simon 6/4 ---- 8/1
Youzny 9/1 ---- 40/1

Ferrer evens ---- 15/2
Edmund 10/3 --- 20/1
Seppi 10/3 ---- 18/1

Mahut (20/1 with bald) clearly stands out here as having an excellent chance to reach the semis and a longish shot overall compared to others with less chance to make the semis. He is ostensibly a doubles specialist but he can hodl his own on these indoor hard courts. Of course that doesn't tell the story and he still needs to win one more match at least for the each way portion of the bet to come home. Now we have got to get through the favourite to make the final. Mahut has met Goffin just once, that was last month, where he lost a closeish three setter on the hard court in Metz, so clearly he will start as a dog for the match but of course he is 20/1 vs Goffin's 9/4

Fritz (40/1 bald) also represents some value imo according to the above odds comparison. He has had some of his best results on hard courts and had a decent run in China last week. He is still young of course, but I'd suggest he has the weapons and ability to challenge the players in this weakish field on his day. He is 40/1 with the bald man. Stand out price as he is 20/1 elsewhere.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-antwerp/european-open/winner

No idea if Fred can bet with baldy still and Fred already has a bet on this tourney in the other half. But I thought I would post my thoughts after taking a look this morning. Matches start at 12 I believe so the market will likely be suspended then

I'd be interested to hear Arb's views!

[Chompy]

How's my 50-1 Johnson to be NFL Offensive POTY looking Tal? Got a whole £5 on this.

[tikay]

Can't Hector give us a rough break down of why the 16/1 is too big and what price, based on the draw and each potential match up after Ferrer (there are only 3 in order to win the event) what price he makes Edmund to 100%?  Then we can know how big an edge we feel we have betting him at 16/1?  Hector must make Edmund a decent fav over Ferrer to even consider 16/1 to be value.  I would expect a max bet on Edmund in the 2nd round match at the expected prices.

Good luck with that.

At least he still puts up bets though Keith, & if folks don't want to bet them, fine, they don't have to. He has contributed to our profit, given us more bets than any other person, tries to make it fun, & keeps us ticking over. If we had 20 more like him, we'd be a lot better off, even if some of his bets might not be deemed value.

[Tonibell]

And good luck with getting Arbboy into the Diplomatic Corps  

I completely agree, of course, that it should be kept civil. Just piping up to say how much I get from debate not just tips.


*Arbboy was civil. Watching my balance and tone

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

And good luck with getting Arbboy into the Diplomatic Corps 

I completely agree, of course, that it should be kept civil. Just piping up to say how much I get from debate not just tips.

Well he'll never be that, but he does acknowledge our good bets as well as critiquing the bad ones. Which makes it so much better to take at face value. Some of the stuff is just personal.

His position is a little more delicate now, of course, as he no longer gives us bets, but his opinion is still valid so long as it's balanced, which it generally is. He always bigs up the good bets, as well as having his say on the lolzz bets.

[tikay]

And good luck with getting Arbboy into the Diplomatic Corps  

I completely agree, of course, that it should be kept civil. Just piping up to say how much I get from debate not just tips.


*Arbboy was civil. Watching my balance and tone

Click to see full-size image.

Ha, that photo looks scarily as I might look when I'm a little older.

[BigAdz]

Can't Hector give us a rough break down of why the 16/1 is too big and what price, based on the draw and each potential match up after Ferrer (there are only 3 in order to win the event) what price he makes Edmund to 100%?  Then we can know how big an edge we feel we have betting him at 16/1?  Hector must make Edmund a decent fav over Ferrer to even consider 16/1 to be value.  I would expect a max bet on Edmund in the 2nd round match at the expected prices.

Good luck with that.

At least he still puts up bets though Keith, & if folks don't want to bet them, fine, they don't have to. He has contributed to our profit, given us more bets than any other person, tries to make it fun, & keeps us ticking over. If we had 20 more like him, we'd be a lot better off, even if some of his bets might not be deemed value.

Hectoring has proved far more profitable than those that seem to knock him.

I would rather make money from his witchcraft than others who pick a 'value bet' but rarely win

Good enough for me

[The Camel]

Can't Hector give us a rough break down of why the 16/1 is too big and what price, based on the draw and each potential match up after Ferrer (there are only 3 in order to win the event) what price he makes Edmund to 100%?  Then we can know how big an edge we feel we have betting him at 16/1?  Hector must make Edmund a decent fav over Ferrer to even consider 16/1 to be value.  I would expect a max bet on Edmund in the 2nd round match at the expected prices.

Good luck with that.

At least he still puts up bets though Keith, & if folks don't want to bet them, fine, they don't have to. He has contributed to our profit, given us more bets than any other person, tries to make it fun, & keeps us ticking over. If we had 20 more like him, we'd be a lot better off, even if some of his bets might not be deemed value.

The whole point of this thread was to be a learning tool. A tip without sound reasoning should be ignored and discarded whoever it is from.

This is from the OP "make a post with a cogent argument as to why the bet should be made."

This was not meant as just a place for tips. Would have died within a month if it was.

[tikay]

Can't Hector give us a rough break down of why the 16/1 is too big and what price, based on the draw and each potential match up after Ferrer (there are only 3 in order to win the event) what price he makes Edmund to 100%?  Then we can know how big an edge we feel we have betting him at 16/1?  Hector must make Edmund a decent fav over Ferrer to even consider 16/1 to be value.  I would expect a max bet on Edmund in the 2nd round match at the expected prices.

Good luck with that.

At least he still puts up bets though Keith, & if folks don't want to bet them, fine, they don't have to. He has contributed to our profit, given us more bets than any other person, tries to make it fun, & keeps us ticking over. If we had 20 more like him, we'd be a lot better off, even if some of his bets might not be deemed value.

The whole point of this thread was to be a learning tool. A tip without sound reasoning should be ignored and discarded whoever it is from.

This is from the OP "make a post with a cogent argument as to why the bet should be made."

This was not meant as just a place for tips. Would have died within a month if it was.

Yup, & it was also intended to be a place where we have a little fun, & are civil to each other, & all try to contribute in a constructive manner.

It's fine to argue against a bet, of course it is. Providing, of course, we equally acknowledge the better bets.

The written word & the spoken word are very different animals, & come across very differently.

We've had nearly 4 great years of Fred, & made a good few bob, as well as learning the skills from those better than us. As things stand though, Fred is in intensive care, & will be toast quite soon, as very few are making an effort these days. Those that do get my thanks, no matter how misguided they may or may not be. At least they are giving us something to discuss.   

  

[Tonibell]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

[tikay]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

And there we have it.

If I were a winning tipster, & my good bets attracted zero comment, not even a thank you, & only my bad ones got discussed, I'd stop putting bets up. MBN never to stick up bets, but just criticise bad ones. (Of which we do our share).

Doubt it will stop as such, but it will fade away quietly unless we all get our act together.

As I've suggested many, many times before, but never got a reply, if someone wants to take over, & start afresh to liven things up, it'd get my full support. Genuinely.