Tips for Tikay

[Tonibell]

You see, it's because of Fred that I can argue that autobetting bad value just because someone has 'done well by us' is results-orientated. Hoist by your own retard, Rodders. ;-)

[BigAdz]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

Not sure what this means? If you are referring to me backing Hector blind, he has been winning since the thread began. Regardless of the method, surely those that ignore him are the fools, not those making consistent profits by following, regardless of the "value factor". I think 5 years is enough to suggest it more than variance. If you are talking about me, the same applies.
Its a simple equation. If he stops making me money, I stop following. So far, Im in!

We have plenty on here who I suspect eat more "value pie" than the real thing, and these digs seem to come from jealously as much as anything else.

On the subject of full write ups, I am sure you dont have to go far back to see recommends from lumineries such as Doobs(a massive winner and contributor) which don't have a write up. Doesn't make them any else complusve.

[The Camel]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

And there we have it.

If I were a winning tipster, & my good bets attracted zero comment, not even a thank you, & only my bad ones got discussed, I'd stop putting bets up. MBN never to stick up bets, but just criticise bad ones. (Of which we do our share).

Doubt it will stop as such, but it will fade away quietly unless we all get our act together.

As I've suggested many, many times before, but never got a reply, if someone wants to take over, & start afresh to liven things up, it'd get my full support. Genuinely.   

That's the thing about Hecotor which annoys me slightly.

I'll admit, the first time I took him to task about one of his bets I was somewhat sarcastic, but it was meant in the spirit of banter. And perhaps I didn't deserve a reply to that barb.

But since I learnt he has an exceeding thin skin, all my questions to him have been polite and sincere posts.

He has ignored them all. Just a bit childish IMO.

[tikay]

You see, it's because of Fred that I can argue that autobetting bad value just because someone has 'done well by us' is results-orientated. Hoist by your own retard, Rodders. ;-)

Accepted, Del.

"auto-betting" is, to a degree, due to 2 things.

1) a record of profitability. 

2) The time-constraints of Tighty, who works his socks off on this, but has workload pressure elsewhere, so tries to be economical with the use of his time.


And yes, we should have good justification for all bets, but at what point do we start to trust folks who have a good track record? I happen to follow some tipsters, here & elsewhere. I largely follow them blind, but I still apply my own common-sense criteria, & swerve them if they feel wrong to me. I don't HAVE to bet them blind, do I?

[Tonibell]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

Not sure what this means? If you are referring to me backing Hector blind, he has been winning since the thread began. Regardless of the method, surely those that ignore him are the fools, not those making consistent profits by following, regardless of the "value factor". I think 5 years is enough to suggest it more than variance. If you are talking about me, the same applies.
Its a simple equation. If he stops making me money, I stop following. So far, Im in!

We have plenty on here who I suspect eat more "value pie" than the real thing, and these digs seem to come from jealously as much as anything else.

On the subject of full write ups, I am sure you dont have to go far back to see recommends from lumineries such as Doobs(a massive winner and contributor) which don't have a write up. Doesn't make them any else complusve.

Not a dig. You like winners. Others like value. Room for all and for discussion which is which. Then people can bet in the way that suits their psychology. (Smashing into novice chasers at 1.2 like a poundshop Harry Findlay, say, would put me in a straitjacket within the month, irrespective of value).

[tikay]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

And there we have it.

If I were a winning tipster, & my good bets attracted zero comment, not even a thank you, & only my bad ones got discussed, I'd stop putting bets up. MBN never to stick up bets, but just criticise bad ones. (Of which we do our share).

Doubt it will stop as such, but it will fade away quietly unless we all get our act together.

As I've suggested many, many times before, but never got a reply, if someone wants to take over, & start afresh to liven things up, it'd get my full support. Genuinely.   

That's the thing about Hecotor which annoys me slightly.

I'll admit, the first time I took him to task about one of his bets I was somewhat sarcastic, but it was meant in the spirit of banter. And perhaps I didn't deserve a reply to that barb.

But since I learnt he has an exceeding thin skin, all my questions to him have been polite and sincere posts.

He has ignored them all. Just a bit childish IMO.

Well now we are getting to the heart of it. Would YOU reply to "good luck with that"? I know I would not.

It's quite evident, some don't like him, (3 or 4 in total, against dozens who enjoy his stuff) & that's fine & dandy, it does not bother me & I very much doubt it bothers him. But at least he is regularly putting bets up, be they good or bad, & that is what keeps the place ticking over. I certainly don't regard him as thin-skinned, far from it.

The small group who dislike him, or his bets, or find him "annoying" don't give us many bets, do they? That's the point. You get exemption, as the one who started the thread, obv, but there are 2 or 3 here who have never given us a thing except to criticise. When they start contributing positively, their views will count for something.

It's just opinions as to who or what we like, surely? I find him extremely well-mannered, polite, knowledgeable, & he has a tremendous sense of fun & mischief. Personally, I'm not sure how anyone can dislike him, but we all like different things I guess. 

There are some regulars here I despise, they just Freeroll the place, but that does not mean I'm gonna spend my time railing against everything they post.

[The Camel]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

And there we have it.

If I were a winning tipster, & my good bets attracted zero comment, not even a thank you, & only my bad ones got discussed, I'd stop putting bets up. MBN never to stick up bets, but just criticise bad ones. (Of which we do our share).

Doubt it will stop as such, but it will fade away quietly unless we all get our act together.

As I've suggested many, many times before, but never got a reply, if someone wants to take over, & start afresh to liven things up, it'd get my full support. Genuinely.   

That's the thing about Hecotor which annoys me slightly.

I'll admit, the first time I took him to task about one of his bets I was somewhat sarcastic, but it was meant in the spirit of banter. And perhaps I didn't deserve a reply to that barb.

But since I learnt he has an exceeding thin skin, all my questions to him have been polite and sincere posts.

He has ignored them all. Just a bit childish IMO.

Well now we are getting to the heart of it. Would YOU reply to "good luck with that"? I know I would not.

It's quite evident, some don't like him, (3 or 4 in total, against dozens who enjoy his stuff) & that's fine & dandy, it does not bother me & I very much doubt it bothers him. But at least he is regularly putting bets up, be they good or bad, & that is what keeps the place ticking over. I certainly don't regard him as thin-skinned, far from it.

The small group who dislike him, or his bets, or find him "annoying" don't give us many bets, do they? That's the point. You get exemption, as the one who started the thread, obv, but there are 2 or 3 here who have never given us a thing except to criticise. When they start contributing positively, their views will count for something.

It's just opinions as to who or what we like, surely? I find him extremely well-mannered, polite, knowledgeable, & he has a tremendous sense of fun & mischief. Personally, I'm not sure how anyone can dislike him, but we all like different things I guess. 

There are some regulars here I despise, they just Freeroll the place, but that does not mean I'm gonna spend my time railing against everything they post.

I didn't say I disliked him.

I said he annoys me slightly. His refusal to answer questions being the main thing which gets my goat.

I'm sure he's a lovely bloke in real life.

[tikay]

It's discussion that has fired the place up again. Bigadz likes his run-lucky winners; Arbboy likes his 10s-on shots that should be 1.07; me, I like to learn from everyone. Plenty of room for all opinions. Be a shame if it stopped for fear of 'scaring people off'.

And there we have it.

If I were a winning tipster, & my good bets attracted zero comment, not even a thank you, & only my bad ones got discussed, I'd stop putting bets up. MBN never to stick up bets, but just criticise bad ones. (Of which we do our share).

Doubt it will stop as such, but it will fade away quietly unless we all get our act together.

As I've suggested many, many times before, but never got a reply, if someone wants to take over, & start afresh to liven things up, it'd get my full support. Genuinely.   

That's the thing about Hecotor which annoys me slightly.

I'll admit, the first time I took him to task about one of his bets I was somewhat sarcastic, but it was meant in the spirit of banter. And perhaps I didn't deserve a reply to that barb.

But since I learnt he has an exceeding thin skin, all my questions to him have been polite and sincere posts.

He has ignored them all. Just a bit childish IMO.

Well now we are getting to the heart of it. Would YOU reply to "good luck with that"? I know I would not.

It's quite evident, some don't like him, (3 or 4 in total, against dozens who enjoy his stuff) & that's fine & dandy, it does not bother me & I very much doubt it bothers him. But at least he is regularly putting bets up, be they good or bad, & that is what keeps the place ticking over. I certainly don't regard him as thin-skinned, far from it.

The small group who dislike him, or his bets, or find him "annoying" don't give us many bets, do they? That's the point. You get exemption, as the one who started the thread, obv, but there are 2 or 3 here who have never given us a thing except to criticise. When they start contributing positively, their views will count for something.

It's just opinions as to who or what we like, surely? I find him extremely well-mannered, polite, knowledgeable, & he has a tremendous sense of fun & mischief. Personally, I'm not sure how anyone can dislike him, but we all like different things I guess. 

There are some regulars here I despise, they just Freeroll the place, but that does not mean I'm gonna spend my time railing against everything they post.

I didn't say I disliked him.

I said he annoys me slightly. His refusal to answer questions being the main thing which gets my goat.

I'm sure he's a lovely bloke in real life.

Well maybe you got off on the wrong foot with him with that post you mentioned?

Anyway, we are going round & round. Send him a nice kiss, & he might be more warm to your questions, instead of, perhaps, thinking he is being trolled a little.

Or send him a nice postcard, something like this. I'm sure he'd appreciate the thought behind it.   

[Marky147]

[arbboy]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.  The law of averages via survival bias meant one 'wagon' would end up having a longish term winning record on TFT at some point on here.  Every 'losing' punter doesn't just always lose.  A tiny % will still win in cash terms over the short/medium term especially when you bink a couple of huge price winners.

[TightEnd]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.

lets get this straight. your post about Hector was so breathtakingly rude it made me gasp, and i wasn't alone

none of this tongue in cheek stuff please.

--

my point about counter arguments to bets is simply this. Lets use constructive language, not stuff like "worst bet ever" "shocking bet".

A number of people do it, and its extremely off-putting. If i am put off making any effort on the thread then sure as hell other people are, because i am the person most often trying to promote discussion and currently its the last thing i want to do

[arbboy]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.

lets get this straight. your post about Hector was so breathtakingly rude it made me gasp, and i wasn't alone

none of this tongue in cheek stuff please.

--

my point about counter arguments to bets is simply this. Lets use constructive language, not stuff like "worst bet ever" "shocking bet".

A number of people do it, and its extremely off-putting. If i am put off making any effort on the thread then sure as hell other people are, because i am the person most often trying to promote discussion and currently its the last thing i want to do

Breathtakingly rude?  Are you serious?  I have had at least 20 people contact me asking why on earth i was even banned for it as most of it was correct and true but too close to the bone because the person involved was a 'winner'.

Most of it was regarding direct quotes from the man himself ie turning the NBA or any other 'losing' sport into a winner by taking it under his wing and his lack of knowledge about staking sizes and reading a kelly staking theory book.  Is this what was considered 'breathtakingly rude'?  If not can you PM me what was so rude so i know whose toes i stood on and made so breathtakingly uncomfortable to justify a month's ban?

[TightEnd]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.

lets get this straight. your post about Hector was so breathtakingly rude it made me gasp, and i wasn't alone

none of this tongue in cheek stuff please.

--

my point about counter arguments to bets is simply this. Lets use constructive language, not stuff like "worst bet ever" "shocking bet".

A number of people do it, and its extremely off-putting. If i am put off making any effort on the thread then sure as hell other people are, because i am the person most often trying to promote discussion and currently its the last thing i want to do

Breathtakingly rude?  Are you serious?  I have had at least 20 people contact me asking why on earth i was even banned for it as most of it was correct and true but too close to the bone because the person involved was a 'winner'.

absolutely serious. and it was nothing to do with anyone being a winner or loser, that completely misses the point. it is never about anyone being a winner. Its about not being rude

[Tonibell]

I can't be dissuaded that putting people off backing 20s shots at 16s is exactly what Fred is about.

[tikay]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.  The law of averages via survival bias meant one 'wagon' would end up having a longish term winning record on TFT at some point on here.  Every 'losing' punter doesn't just always lose.  A tiny % will still win in cash terms over the short/medium term especially when you bink a couple of huge price winners.

WRONG.

Weetabix is clearly extremely knowledgeable about tennis, & his (timely) input is very welcome indeed. He was NOT called out because the bets were from a "winner", it was his tone that was unhelpful, added to the fact that he makes a habit of doing that & little else. I think he acknowledged that last night, so fair play to him.

Surely at your age you have a grasp of psychology & human nature? Post things in a more reasonable tone, & the other side will want to reply, of course they will.  Post in a derogatory manner & most sensible folks are just going to ignore. That's just O level human interaction at work. Don't you see that?

If we want people to take on board our advice, we need to address them in a manner which allows them to do so, not box them into a corner.