Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Quick Basketball thoughts.

Pretty late to reply to the Raptors post from last week.

Pretty bad news for anyone who made that Raptors bet as Kyle Lowry is out for 4-6 weeks or maybe more with a wrist injury. No way of knowing he had that as he played the All Star game. Big blow and even if he is back for the playoffs he might not be match sharp. Second big blow is that is harms the Raptors chances of making the top three in the east, so that means they will play against Cleveland one round earlier potentially. His replacement Cory Joseph is a significant downgrade both offensively and defensively.

Ibaka seems like a great trade for the Raptors. A mobile big man who can shoot the three, rebound and play some defence - a great addition to the squad an an extra offensive option. They also signed PJ Tucker who is an excellent defensive option off the bench. Their leading scorer DeRozan played a great match last night without Lowry. Can he keep it up night after night and carry the team? Good question. You'd suspect not but he's having a great year so far.

Fred are on Boston to beat Toronto and win their division. Boston didn't make any trades before the deadline. Ibaka could have also fitted with what they needed but they stuck with their lineup. Their top 7 of Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Johnson, Horford, Smart and Olynyk is now all fit and rookie Jaylen Brown had some good games recently when people were injured. They have a really nice squad, but I still think they lack a dominant big man and therefore are lacking in the rebounding department which could be problematic even though the NBA generally plays small these days. Maybe they will sign someone on a free agency but the most likely big man option (Andrew Bogut) looks set for Cleveland. I still expect them to kick on now if they stay fit and take the second seed in the division ahead of Toronto and Washington.

Cleveland themselves have been stuttering a bit. Kevin Love is injured and LeBron has been nursed somewhat and rested to keep him fresh. Irving has been strong but the other players haven't really stepped up and although Cleveland are still favourites in the East, the whole Conference looks much weaker than the west.

in the West the Warriors clearly have the best squad, but they could face some big roadblocks in the playoffs. Defensive, well coached teams in Utah and Memphis, the freescoring Rockets, perhaps a first round match vs New Orleans two big men of Davis and Cousins and finally a Western Final vs the Spurs who are quietly going about their business in their usual efficient way.

It is interesting. If any bookie offered each way betting then there would be a tonne of value in betting on an Eastern team as was the case last year.

Where's the value NBA fans?

[Doobs]

Can we get a quick £25 each way on vettel for the F1 drivers championship.   Early days, but they seem to have one of the two best cars right now.

Plenty of 12/1 fifth first 3 available, though suspect we are hills only.

Think we need to be quick.

Done this for Fred @ 14/1 1-3 1/5

Who was that with?   

NetBet

I will take it if thread doesn't want it. 

[TightEnd]

End of February 2017

Year to Date Profit of £1007.81
ROI of 26.7%

January £625.50
February £382.31


Top Sports NFL +£763 Football £228 Darts +£191
Worst sports Horses -£82 Tennis -£80

Overall since Jan 25th, 2012

Profit of £14,216
ROI of 7.55%
6,214 settled bets

Top 5 sports

Football £5926 at 13%
Horses £2179 at 4%
NFL £1939 at 16%
Misc £1828 at 22%
Motor Sport £1233 at 16%

Bottom 5 sports

Boxing -£528
RU -£442
Snooker-£347
Basketball -£293
Dogs  -£194

Outstanding Bets £1702

these can be seen at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=34

[TightEnd]

Can we get a quick £25 each way on vettel for the F1 drivers championship.   Early days, but they seem to have one of the two best cars right now.

Plenty of 12/1 fifth first 3 available, though suspect we are hills only.

Think we need to be quick.

Done this for Fred @ 14/1 1-3 1/5

Who was that with?   

NetBet

I will take it if thread doesn't want it. 

yes we will take it

[TightEnd]

This week's WGC event which has been traditionally played for many years at Doral's "Blue Monster" course, fairly recently bought by the Donald in a fire-sale and completely revamped for an alleged $250M. This year however it has somewhat ironically due to subsequent events, been moved to Mexico after Cadillac withdrew their sponsorship at Doral because they figured the POTUS would steal some of their limelight. When this was announced last year the Donald with typical grace said "I hope they all have kidnap insurance".

Cutting to the chase -  this is a course that probably none of these guys has played, it's ~7300 yards long but is at 3000 feet altitude and has tree-lined fairways so straight-hitting and a good short-game might well be the recipe for success this week and the favourites might well be too short due to the aforementioned factors.

My old friend who I refer to as The Nutty Professor, Kevin Na, is in decent form and has the game but despite being a serial top-ten finisher doesn't win often but this is offset by the fact that there's some 150/1 around and this is in a field of 72 runners.

Recommend £5ew Kevin Na @150/1 in WGC Mexico

PS 9/1 top ten looks decent too.

the best we can get is 125/1 6 places 1/5. 150/1 is at non bookmakers only

i have done as requested but if the terms don't appeal we can take it off thread

Kevin Na WGC Mexico Championship Winner
125/1 Each Way (6 Places at 1/5 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £760.00

[TightEnd]

Bottas has just done a 1.20.1,fastest time of the test by 0.8 seconds

does appear that the new regs have reinforced the merc advantage for now,as Ross Brawn states this morning

"Brawn says it was "naive" to think rule changes could destabilise Mercedes. "If anything, it gave them an advantage"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-motor-f1-brawn-idUSKBN1683W5



--

Scunthorpe lost their game in hand over Fleetwood last night. now locked togther 2nd and 3rd on 61 points after 34 games. They play each other soon.

--

Blackburn beat Derby to get closer to leaving the bottom 3 of the championship. we really need Burton to have a bad run here

[TightEnd]

The 1:19.952 lap Vettel has just done on softs is 0.155secs faster than Bottas went on the softs earlier

 

[Marky147]

Can we get a quick £25 each way on vettel for the F1 drivers championship.   Early days, but they seem to have one of the two best cars right now.

Plenty of 12/1 fifth first 3 available, though suspect we are hills only.

Think we need to be quick.

Done this for Fred @ 14/1 1-3 1/5

Who was that with?   

NetBet

I will take it if thread doesn't want it. 

yes we will take it

 

[arbboy]

all mid/wide at BVue bags this afternoon.  Few more races yet to exploit until 630pm.

[arbboy]

haha very very lucky 456 combo there at huge prices.  Carnage at the first bend with the railers all ko'ing each other.  We will take it though.  ffs 1 got up for 3rd gutted!  Looked like 5 on the stream!

[arbboy]

Quick Basketball thoughts.

Pretty late to reply to the Raptors post from last week.

Pretty bad news for anyone who made that Raptors bet as Kyle Lowry is out for 4-6 weeks or maybe more with a wrist injury. No way of knowing he had that as he played the All Star game. Big blow and even if he is back for the playoffs he might not be match sharp. Second big blow is that is harms the Raptors chances of making the top three in the east, so that means they will play against Cleveland one round earlier potentially. His replacement Cory Joseph is a significant downgrade both offensively and defensively.

Ibaka seems like a great trade for the Raptors. A mobile big man who can shoot the three, rebound and play some defence - a great addition to the squad an an extra offensive option. They also signed PJ Tucker who is an excellent defensive option off the bench. Their leading scorer DeRozan played a great match last night without Lowry. Can he keep it up night after night and carry the team? Good question. You'd suspect not but he's having a great year so far.

Fred are on Boston to beat Toronto and win their division. Boston didn't make any trades before the deadline. Ibaka could have also fitted with what they needed but they stuck with their lineup. Their top 7 of Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Johnson, Horford, Smart and Olynyk is now all fit and rookie Jaylen Brown had some good games recently when people were injured. They have a really nice squad, but I still think they lack a dominant big man and therefore are lacking in the rebounding department which could be problematic even though the NBA generally plays small these days. Maybe they will sign someone on a free agency but the most likely big man option (Andrew Bogut) looks set for Cleveland. I still expect them to kick on now if they stay fit and take the second seed in the division ahead of Toronto and Washington.

Cleveland themselves have been stuttering a bit. Kevin Love is injured and LeBron has been nursed somewhat and rested to keep him fresh. Irving has been strong but the other players haven't really stepped up and although Cleveland are still favourites in the East, the whole Conference looks much weaker than the west.

in the West the Warriors clearly have the best squad, but they could face some big roadblocks in the playoffs. Defensive, well coached teams in Utah and Memphis, the freescoring Rockets, perhaps a first round match vs New Orleans two big men of Davis and Cousins and finally a Western Final vs the Spurs who are quietly going about their business in their usual efficient way.

It is interesting. If any bookie offered each way betting then there would be a tonne of value in betting on an Eastern team as was the case last year.

Where's the value NBA fans?

Was thinking of starting a separate NBA thread now the NFL is finished but not sure there is sufficient interest on blonde.  Durant is out for at least 4 weeks for Golden State with a leg injury.  I was close to putting up the Cavs yday at 7/2+ before this happened as they have made 2 big reserve signings at the trade deadline and i really think GS are going to struggle in the paint in the play offs this year due to their lack of size.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

http://www.espn.co.uk/nba/story/_/id/18795950/kevin-durant-golden-state-warriors-miss-least-four-weeks-bone-bruise

At the big big prices the only team i could back would be Utah.  They are going under the radar as they used to do back in the day.

[nellberg]

Wi v Eng, 1st ODI, Friday at 15.00

Koral - highest individual score over 85.5 - 17/20
everyday or stan - no century - evens

For a small price (£4 to win £92 when dutched) we get a reasonable middle of 14 runs.

[Peter-27]

Bottas has just done a 1.20.1,fastest time of the test by 0.8 seconds

does appear that the new regs have reinforced the merc advantage for now,as Ross Brawn states this morning

"Brawn says it was "naive" to think rule changes could destabilise Mercedes. "If anything, it gave them an advantage"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-motor-f1-brawn-idUSKBN1683W5

The 1:19.952 lap Vettel has just done on softs is 0.155secs faster than Bottas went on the softs earlier

 

The lap times are utterly, utterly meaningless at this stage, all teams aren't yet running anything near their developed aero package. Due to the increased importance of aero this season, all cars are running an embryonic aero package at the moment, in order to understand their baseline first. We'll only really get meaningful times in the final two days of the second test.

Having said that, the scope of variation within the new regulations is so limited that we're not going to see a huge shift in the pecking order from last season. As I posted yesterday, the general paddock consensus is that Mercedes are way out in front, even more than last season. They've gone SO aggressive with packaging at the rear of their car .. if it's reliable (which it seems to be), there's really no way anyone's beating that without a fundamental design concept change.

[Rubbish2407]

£25 E/W Se Young Kim, 28/1 several firms

£30  Moriya Jutanugarn top 10 Finish, 8/1 Stan J, 15/2 in a few spots

£10 E/W, Stacy Lewis 25/1 Sporting, 22/1 in a few spots

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/hsbc-womens-champions/winner

This week sees the LPGA heading to Singapore. They are playing on a new course so there's no real historic data to look at. The initial thoughts of a few of the players is that the course is quite open, easier for the average length player but tough greens. Here's the Course designers thoughts.



Shanshan Feng tops the betting again with Aria Jutanugarn in second. I still have my doubts over their fitness so am happy to take them on.

Se Young Kim has played twice this year, coming third last week and T42 in the Bahamas. She's a proven tour winner, heading the field five times even though she has only been on tour since 2015. Most tellingly she ranks 4th in driving distance, 3rd in G.I.R, 23rd in Putts per G.I.R, 9th in scoring average and 21st in Birdies made. With the course looking like it may come down to the short game players Se Young Kim ticks a lot of boxes.

Moriya Jutanugarns price seems absolutely crazy. She was T7 last week on -12 and I'm pretty sure it was only the pressure of it being her home tournament that stopped her finishing higher. Unless she has had an arm amputated since Sunday I can't see why she is going off this high? Her stats aren't off the charts but she is 17th in putting average and 8th in Birdies so she can shoot low. She's never won an LPGA event hence the top ten pick but you can get 125/1 for her E/W which is a massive price and possibly worth a small investment.

It didn't happen for Stacy Lewis last week, two average rounds in the middle of the tournament cost her. In the Bahamas she was flying before a triple bogey 7 on the 14th put paid to her chances. Amazingly she still finished 3rd. Her stats are pretty awesome though which you would expect for a former World number 1. G.I.R. 7th, Putts per G.I.R. 4th, Putting average 10th, scoring average 4th. I know Golf is about a lot more than pure stats but Stacy Lewis does have an all round game and with supposed big wide fairways She has to have a chance of getting off the mark this year.

Last weeks winner for us, Lexi Thompson, is going off at 12/1 again and I will probably have a bet on her. Below is where Thompson ranks in short game categories compared to how she finished 2016.

 
                     2017               2016   
Putting          28.13 (21)      30.70 (139)
GIR Putting     1.68 (11)        1.80 (49)
Scrambling     75.76% (6)     54.79% (115)
Sand Saves    66.67% (24)   42.00% (100)

As you can see she has made huge strides in her putting and she will definitely be winning events this year. At the prices though I've had to go for Kim and Lewis.

Okay, change of heart, I've had a tenner on Lexi to win. She can definitely get up in two on the par fives so I'm going all or nothing on her this week. She does like this tournament as well.



As I stated earlier I'm looking to be against the top two in the betting. That is other than 1st round 3 balls when both of them are fit and raring to go. Not many bookies offer these markets but I've had a tenner treble on Stanley James of Stacy Lewis, Feng and Ariaya Jutanugarn which pays just over 10/1. I think Lewis at 20/21 to beat Webb and Creamer is a great bet.

Good luck if you fancy having a go.

Later.

[Karabiner]

Great write-up again Rubbish and I could not agree more about Moriya's price - 125/1 is an insult but unfortunately it's not even available to a punterer like me.

I've had a dabble @ 14/1ew on In Gee Chun who's game I like a lot.

GL