Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

There has just been half an hour of total bollox as they did a virtual GN, the full ten mins or so.

Winner,

cause of Causes.


Get on Marky!!!

The Codddddddddddddfather

OiOi

Feck

[Doobs]

There has just been half an hour of total bollox as they did a virtual GN, the full ten mins or so.

Winner,

cause of Causes.


Get on Marky!!!

The Codddddddddddddfather

OiOi

Feck

Congrats any winners.

[Marky147]

They almost got it right

Congrats anyone that pulled any dough out.

[Peter-27]

Surprisingly, I found a number of good spots available.

Race Winner - Nico Hulkenberg @ 500/1 with 188Bet (I've never used that bookie, but anything over 250/1 is fine). Suggest £2.50 EW (1-2 1/3). No, I've not gone crazy. The best driver on the grid in heavy rain is Nico, the price is wildly away from where it should be.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/winner

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 18/5 with 10Bet (anything over 3/1 is fine). I'm at a loss to explain why Sergio is 10th favourite in this market .. not only should he have a good car in race trim, but he's also a safe pair of hands. Suggest £20.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Points Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 4/1 with Hills. Same reason as above, a good car in race trim around this circuit. £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

Not To Finish The Race - Felipe Massa @ 9/2 with 365/Hills. The self-proclaimed worst driver in the wet, by some margin too. This should be more like 2/1. Suggest £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

1st Car Retirement - Haas @ 8/1 with Hills. Romain is furious at the moment after his penalty today, I suspect we'll see him attempt to be aggressive into the first corner, increasing the likelihood of an incident. I'm expecting a bit of a pile-up tomorrow, not sure what would happen in that situation, but let's see. Suggest £5.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/1st-car-retirement

1st Lap Total Retirements - More Than 4 @ 20/1 with Bwin. As above, anticipating a number of incidents. 20/1 is certainly too high with new cars, new clutch procedures and a standing start on a wet track. Suggest £5.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/1st-lap-total-retirements

Double Points Finish - Sauber @ 150/1 with Bwin. Sauber and McLaren are having a battle at the back to avoid being the slowest team, it's pretty close. Why on Earth is McLaren 16/1 and Sauber 150/1? This makes no logical sense. Sauber are the ones with the reliability too. Suggest £5.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/double-points-finish

Total Safety Car Periods - 2 @ 9/2 with Bwin. The most likely scenario in my eyes, should be the favourite. Suggest £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/total-safety-car-periods

Like the Hulkenberg bet.  Was really hoping somebody f'd up and went a fifth first 3 again, but think we drained them enough last year.

Yeah, I'd looked out for it this time, usually I miss it.

Surprisingly, I found a number of good spots available.

Race Winner - Nico Hulkenberg @ 500/1 with 188Bet (I've never used that bookie, but anything over 250/1 is fine). Suggest £2.50 EW (1-2 1/3). No, I've not gone crazy. The best driver on the grid in heavy rain is Nico, the price is wildly away from where it should be.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/winner

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 18/5 with 10Bet (anything over 3/1 is fine). I'm at a loss to explain why Sergio is 10th favourite in this market .. not only should he have a good car in race trim, but he's also a safe pair of hands. Suggest £20.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Points Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 4/1 with Hills. Same reason as above, a good car in race trim around this circuit. £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

Not To Finish The Race - Felipe Massa @ 9/2 with 365/Hills. The self-proclaimed worst driver in the wet, by some margin too. This should be more like 2/1. Suggest £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

1st Car Retirement - Haas @ 8/1 with Hills. Romain is furious at the moment after his penalty today, I suspect we'll see him attempt to be aggressive into the first corner, increasing the likelihood of an incident. I'm expecting a bit of a pile-up tomorrow, not sure what would happen in that situation, but let's see. Suggest £5.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/1st-car-retirement

1st Lap Total Retirements - More Than 4 @ 20/1 with Bwin. As above, anticipating a number of incidents. 20/1 is certainly too high with new cars, new clutch procedures and a standing start on a wet track. Suggest £5.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/1st-lap-total-retirements

Double Points Finish - Sauber @ 150/1 with Bwin. Sauber and McLaren are having a battle at the back to avoid being the slowest team, it's pretty close. Why on Earth is McLaren 16/1 and Sauber 150/1? This makes no logical sense. Sauber are the ones with the reliability too. Suggest £5.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/double-points-finish

Total Safety Car Periods - 2 @ 9/2 with Bwin. The most likely scenario in my eyes, should be the favourite. Suggest £10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/total-safety-car-periods

those i can do and have done

Hulkenberg win £2.50 e/w at 250

Perez top 6 £20 3-1

Ocon points at 4-1 £10

Massa DNF at 9/2 £10

Haas First DNF at 8-1 £5. Presume this could be a multi way dead heat if first corner accident


we need to talk stakes again Peter. how about shut your eyes and make it £10-20 minimums given the size we are these days, we can then do on here what we can restricted/non restricted? ;-)

Yeah, stake sizes are always a bit of a strange one for me. Even for TFT, I don't believe we have consistency on stakes sizes depending on who is suggesting the bet .. which makes sense because obviously we don't all have the same "valueship" of a set amount. £10 is a lot to some people, but absolutely nothing to others. As I've tentatively suggested before, maybe all posts should also come with the odds that we reckon the selection should have been, and then a stake size can be determined based on the value of the bet? Just a thought.

its a bit complicated because tikay will never want to stake up to "correct" amounts given the size of the notional "book" so the staking plan tends to be skewed down somewhat

even so, it doesn't matter if a suggested amount is a lot to the poster or not, £5 at 8-1 is too low for the thread's book. £40 would be great but really the Haas bet, just to choose one, could be £20 at 8-1 if i am nudging you gently couldn't it?

If you're gonna up one of them, it would be the Massa to retire bet.

I personally feel like £20 would be too much on the Haas bet - but that's not thinking about the size of the book, so it's your call really

One thing I would say is that they make sense in my mind relative to each other. So for example, if you were going to double one, I would suggest doubling them all.

[bergeroo]

The clay tennis season began this week with the ladies event on the green clay in Charleston. Russia's Darya Kasatkina has made the final where she should start as favourite to land her first top level title and I really like her price of 66/1 for the French Open.

Kasatkina is a young player and this is her second full year on the main tour. It was a steady beginning last year as she had several quarter finals and one semi. Her favourite surface is definitely clay and she's won 6 ITF titles (next level down) and the Girls' Singles title at the French Open in 2014. She is currently 42 in the world but will go up after this week and hopefully she will be in the top 32 and get seeded as she doesn't have many points to defend before Roland Garros.

There are so many question marks about the ladies at the top of the betting (injury, form, fitness, suspensions, inconsistency, lack of clay pedigree) that I really think there is some value to be had with players further down the oddsheet. Ladies tennis is really in between eras with no dominant player and most tournaments are wide open. For example in Charleston this week, three unseeded players made the semis.

Obviously there are question marks about Kasatkina, areas to improve and a lack of Grand Slam experience, but we are getting that in the price. I'd say it is easier for a woman to take the step up to Grand Slam as the men have to take the step up to five sets which requires greater fitness and mental focus.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/winner

Safarova is another player that interests me at 40s, but for now just...

Recommend Darya Kasatkina £10 each way at 66/1 with several firms

[Peter-27]

The rain wasn't anywhere near as heavy as expected, but conditions were still tricky today.

A loss overall with all my tips I'm afraid

Thread should have made a profit without the spread bet though?

[TightEnd]

The rain wasn't anywhere near as heavy as expected, but conditions were still tricky today.

A loss overall with all my tips I'm afraid

Thread should have made a profit without the spread bet though?

broke even

you misunderstood my point about staking. book size is crucial, your own personal circumstances are immaterial.

so even if we take this year's profit of £1500 as the "true" book and ignore initial starting bank and profits since, £5 bets at 0.3% of book are too low so if its ok with you i suggest i scale up (within tikay's tolerances) for bahrain onwards to get you in line with the £15-20+ that even the most conservative of others pops in

[TightEnd]

Burton got another point at home to Villa

can Blackburn get enough points to send Burton down? er, probably not



The "can Fleetwood finish 3rd?" question is going down to the wire

[TightEnd]

The clay tennis season began this week with the ladies event on the green clay in Charleston. Russia's Darya Kasatkina has made the final where she should start as favourite to land her first top level title and I really like her price of 66/1 for the French Open.

Kasatkina is a young player and this is her second full year on the main tour. It was a steady beginning last year as she had several quarter finals and one semi. Her favourite surface is definitely clay and she's won 6 ITF titles (next level down) and the Girls' Singles title at the French Open in 2014. She is currently 42 in the world but will go up after this week and hopefully she will be in the top 32 and get seeded as she doesn't have many points to defend before Roland Garros.

There are so many question marks about the ladies at the top of the betting (injury, form, fitness, suspensions, inconsistency, lack of clay pedigree) that I really think there is some value to be had with players further down the oddsheet. Ladies tennis is really in between eras with no dominant player and most tournaments are wide open. For example in Charleston this week, three unseeded players made the semis.

Obviously there are question marks about Kasatkina, areas to improve and a lack of Grand Slam experience, but we are getting that in the price. I'd say it is easier for a woman to take the step up to Grand Slam as the men have to take the step up to five sets which requires greater fitness and mental focus.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/winner

Safarova is another player that interests me at 40s, but for now just...

Recommend Darya Kasatkina £10 each way at 66/1 with several firms

tried various places and had to settle £7.55 e/w

Women's French Open 2017
Tournament Outright
EW 1/2 1,2   Kasatkina, Daria   66/1   
Total stake   15.10
Estimated return   762.55
Full stake   15.10
Full estimated return   762.55

[TightEnd]

Australian James Pattinson stars with the bat and ball as Nottinghamshire thrash Leicestershire. http://bit.ly/2olWYK8

a good start

the Notts attack in this was Broad/Gurney/Pattinson/Fletcher (with Jake Ball to come in for Broad once England matxches come along)

going to knock a lot of div 2 sides over this season

[T_Mar]

Amazing pairings for final round of Masters, almost got Ryder cup feel to it! What a night in store

Money aside Sergio win would be a great thing!

Rose or Rickie for all the money though 🤞

[arbboy]

Interesting how paddypower/betfair sportsbooks have attacked the masters this week both pre event and in running.

PP have been offering the stupid amount of places but every price has been way under top of the market.  BFSB have took the totally opposite approach and gone top price every runner virtually but with terrible place terms.  Looks like between the combined firm they are trying to mop up both areas of the market.  Conversely in most deriv markets they just use one set of prices between both firms as you would expect from two firms owned by the same outfit effectively.

Today PP offering 1/5 1234 and bf offering 1/5 123 (when everyone else is offering standard 1/4 123).

Speith looks a cracking ew bet at 4/1 with PP however with four places even at 1/5 the odds.  He is tight 8/15 with 5 places on bf and we get 4/5 top 4 here plus the win is under.  It is effectively a 12 runner race (3 of these 12 are 100/1+ on the machine) paying 4 places.

https://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/2017-masters/winner

[Doobs]

Interesting how paddypower/betfair sportsbooks have attacked the masters this week both pre event and in running.

PP have been offering the stupid amount of places but every price has been way under top of the market.  BFSB have took the totally opposite approach and gone top price every runner virtually but with terrible place terms.  Looks like between the combined firm they are trying to mop up both areas of the market.  Conversely in most deriv markets they just use one set of prices between both firms as you would expect from two firms owned by the same outfit effectively.

Today PP offering 1/5 1234 and bf offering 1/5 123 (when everyone else is offering standard 1/4 123).

Speith looks a cracking ew bet at 4/1 with PP however with four places even at 1/5 the odds.  He is tight 8/15 with 5 places on bf and we get 4/5 top 4 here plus the win is under.  It is effectively a 12 runner race paying 4 places.

https://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/2017-masters/winner

Think you are unfair to PP here.  They were top or near top with many of my bets before the strart. They even laid a reasonable sum.

[Killerkilsby]

Kane went off injured today.

Hearing rumours it could be a repeat of the injury that kept him out of 5 PL fixtures earlier in the season.

Only 11 games left of the season, not guarenteed to come back in the amazing form he is currently in. Bookmakers dont seem to have fully reflected this, he is still odds on in some places but generally evens across the board for top G/S.

Other contenders are:

Kane (19)
Lukaku (18) - In good form plays every game, doesnt take penalties otherwise would be leading this race already.
Sanchez (17) - speculation over future, hasnt been starting every game lately. Interesting to see the rest of the years performances but not out and out striker.
Costa (17) - having a solid year, doesnt seem to score in multiples but is consistently scoring single goals in games
Zlatan (15) - out for 2 more games could be a factor if form continued.
Defoe (14) - team not good enough for him to win this
Alli (13) - Midfield role will hinder
Aguero (12) - seems like Jesus injury will give him an extended run in the side and can easily score 2-3 a game at times.


Based on the above, and slightly speculating over Kanes injury I'd like to propose £25 Lukaku at 7/2 across the board on OC. And £10 Aguero at 16/1 with bet365 or BV.

Appreciate any thoughts.

Kane came back early from Injury which hurts this quite abit, but Lukaku has been in form and is  now into evens from 7/2 as tipped. Aguero 8/1 from 16/1.

[Killerkilsby]

Kane went off injured today.

Hearing rumours it could be a repeat of the injury that kept him out of 5 PL fixtures earlier in the season.

Only 11 games left of the season, not guarenteed to come back in the amazing form he is currently in. Bookmakers dont seem to have fully reflected this, he is still odds on in some places but generally evens across the board for top G/S.

Other contenders are:

Kane (19)
Lukaku (18) - In good form plays every game, doesnt take penalties otherwise would be leading this race already.
Sanchez (17) - speculation over future, hasnt been starting every game lately. Interesting to see the rest of the years performances but not out and out striker.
Costa (17) - having a solid year, doesnt seem to score in multiples but is consistently scoring single goals in games
Zlatan (15) - out for 2 more games could be a factor if form continued.
Defoe (14) - team not good enough for him to win this
Alli (13) - Midfield role will hinder
Aguero (12) - seems like Jesus injury will give him an extended run in the side and can easily score 2-3 a game at times.


Based on the above, and slightly speculating over Kanes injury I'd like to propose £25 Lukaku at 7/2 across the board on OC. And £10 Aguero at 16/1 with bet365 or BV.

Appreciate any thoughts.

Kane came back early from Injury which hurts this quite abit, but Lukaku has been in form and is  now into evens from 7/2 as tipped. Aguero 8/1 from 16/1.

Lukaku has scored again today to go 3 clear theres some stale prices around still 11/10 on Pokerstars/Tote/Boyle.

1.53 to lay on exchange