Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Anyone got any opinions about the tennis this week. Two 250 tournaments for men and two weakish fields for the women.

In Marrakech Dimitrov is the class of the field but I couldn't back him at 5/2. Looking at the other side of the draw for an each way bet I like Jiri Vesely at 33/1. It is only the second year of this tourney, he is a good clay player and reached the semis last year. He has by far the weakest quarter of the draw with Lorenzi (who could be knackered from Davis Cup) and Zverev (who is poor on clay). Garcia Lopez is a good clay player but is aging and declining and his price has come in to 33s now, so I prefer Vesely at the same price.

On the green clay in Houston the top four seeds are the American players who are all having a long haul flight back from playing Davis Cup in Australia. They are all at the top of the market but it would make sense to look elsewhere for a bet imo but I'm not sure who I want to take against them. Verdasco is the obvious choice though.

[Rod Paradise]

Poor weekend for Fred's SPFL bets:

Aberdeen could have clinched  our bet to win SPL without Celtic, but despite dominating at home against Rangers, in a 5 minute spell late in the second half they conceded 3.

Click to see full-size image.

So they need 2 wins in 6 games to clinch it on their own.

Not sure if Fred backed the Dembele top scorer bet, Sinclair scored again, but Dembele returned from injury and looked sharp, 3 goals behind but him coming in moves Sinclair wide again. This one will be a sweat.

[Marky147]

Garcia bet returned £305.

Almost time for me to send Tikay money

[Longines]

Question from a spread betting 99: Spreadex are currently (it's half time) offering a 6-9 spread on Palace-Arsenal finishing 0-0. Before I put the mortgage on the sell, what am I missing?


D'oh, like I said, 99.....

[Doobs]

On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.

Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...

the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?

The top one looks like a three way handicap, so why would you get your stakeback?

Ah i ignored the tie aspect option then. Am I right in saying if there was only Southampton -1 and Palace +1 available, it would be a push at 1 nil to Palace or have a i dreamt that market up?

So in the three way handicap market the Palace +1 is the same as the asian handicap Palace +0.5?

Yup to Matt's views on Palace's they could be jaded, and having Delaney start instead of Tomkins or Dann at CB is a blow, but i would hope the solidity would still be there. With that in mind I still think there is value in the Palace price away to Southampton.

So I think 4k suited's tip is a bet if you want to go ahead with it, at £20 at 4/1 ish

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner

I would suggest going for £70 at evens or over on the asian handicap Palace + 0.5 as well or identical market, wherever you can get the best price, anything evens or over is fine.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/double-chance

On Fraser's tip. I would say the 5/1 is a good price on the win market. I would go about the same as above for finding a bet with the handicaps though as personal preference. I have no idea about draw no bet markets, i barely know what i am talking about with the markets i do like to bet on  . I would have to imagine it is value though and back that bet as well.

Before i get accused of going Palace crazy here, I have hardly spoke all season on them, they just look big in these games  

Congrats Ant and Fraser.  Easy game in the end.

[Chompy]

Middlesbrough are terrible obv but 6-1 v Arsenal at the moment?

[Ant040689]

On the Palace bets I would say there is value in both games, Arsenal and Southampton. I do like the handicap angle on both though. I like doing both the win market for Southampton and the handicap, and the outright handicap for Arsenal.

Quick question just for clarification, as i am confused by how similarly priced they are...

the Palace +1 handicap below is if Southampton win by 1, you get your stake back, but if it is a draw or better you win?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

But the Palace +0.5 asian handicap below is if you lose by one you lose it all and you need the draw or better?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

How is it they are effectively the same price? Clearly the normal handicap is so much better or am i missing something?

The top one looks like a three way handicap, so why would you get your stakeback?

Ah i ignored the tie aspect option then. Am I right in saying if there was only Southampton -1 and Palace +1 available, it would be a push at 1 nil to Palace or have a i dreamt that market up?

So in the three way handicap market the Palace +1 is the same as the asian handicap Palace +0.5?

Yup to Matt's views on Palace's they could be jaded, and having Delaney start instead of Tomkins or Dann at CB is a blow, but i would hope the solidity would still be there. With that in mind I still think there is value in the Palace price away to Southampton.

So I think 4k suited's tip is a bet if you want to go ahead with it, at £20 at 4/1 ish

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/winner

I would suggest going for £70 at evens or over on the asian handicap Palace + 0.5 as well or identical market, wherever you can get the best price, anything evens or over is fine.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/handicaps

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-crystal-palace/double-chance

On Fraser's tip. I would say the 5/1 is a good price on the win market. I would go about the same as above for finding a bet with the handicaps though as personal preference. I have no idea about draw no bet markets, i barely know what i am talking about with the markets i do like to bet on  . I would have to imagine it is value though and back that bet as well.

Before i get accused of going Palace crazy here, I have hardly spoke all season on them, they just look big in these games  

Congrats Ant and Fraser.  Easy game in the end.

Hmm. Not sure the congrats are in order but thanks anyway. I have gone quiet since we were spanked by Soton and that is the bet i put up ha. But yeh I was right to say we have something about us at the moment, but I was shocked by how resoundingly beaten we were away to the saints. I think i have it down as we rise to the occasion against the big boys and can often not find the same motivation for non top 8 teams. I think that means there may be value to bet against Palace in certain games moving forward if the market dictates it and adversely if there is any value in the games Palace have against the biggies.

Top weaknesses to look out for generally with Palace is teams getting in behind either full backs with relative ease at times. We are relying way to heavily on Sakho and the centre backs to put in last ditch clearances from crosses and I think we are running well on this front. Also Arsenal we pretty abject and if they had any motivation at all I think they would have enjoyed themselves against our backline much like Chelsea did but they were very unlucky.

Zaha also is too good for us, and it is nice to see Townsend find some form. If it all clicks at this club we could probably beat anyone in this league at any given moment, but Ward and Schlupp manning the wing back positions means every oppo team has a shot with us at any given time imo, as both I think are lacking defensively. Add to that too I don't particularly rate Kelly at CB, and we have a little bit of a soft underbelly. Sakho makes up for it. Of course we have had a great run of not conceding many recently so it sounds harsh, but I am just throwing it out there. 

Also the trend might be we are a great home team now, which has to be considered because we have found results against Watford and Boro there recently. That might offset the worries above i have about us playing the non top 8 teams. If i see anything anyway I will let you know. On first look, the evens at home to Leicester seems like the value lies with Leicester if any, but the Liverpool game seems more promising and think the 6/1 probably should be snapped up as I doubt it will be above 5/1 before kick off. The 6/4+ Palace +0.5 asian handicap for the Liverpool game looks promising too.

[FUN4FRASER]

Middlesbrough are terrible obv but 6-1 v Arsenal at the moment?

Agree  , they are terrible but given Boro need to win and Arsenal seem totally disjointed price (s) is too big ...As Boro draw often DNB maybe the way forward

On the Asian Handicap Unibet , 32 red and 888 are all  9 -2 Middlesboro at zero " 0 " which is the same as draw no bet

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/middlesbrough-v-arsenal/asian-handicap

If people cant get on with those 3 VC are 17-4  ( 4.25 -1 ) draw no bet

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/middlesbrough-v-arsenal/draw-no-bet

[bergeroo]

Athletico currently available at 1.3 with the bookies and 1.77 with the exchange vs Leicester on Tuesday. Am I missing something?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/atletico-madrid-v-leicester/winner

[arbboy]

Athletico currently available at 1.3 with the bookies and 1.77 with the exchange vs Leicester on Tuesday. Am I missing something?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/atletico-madrid-v-leicester/winner

thats the 2nd leg market you are looking at on betfair not tonights match.

[bergeroo]

Athletico currently available at 1.3 with the bookies and 1.77 with the exchange vs Leicester on Tuesday. Am I missing something?

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/atletico-madrid-v-leicester/winner

thats the 2nd leg market you are looking at on betfair not tonights match.

ah damn, oddschecker wrong again, seems to be more common these days. Knew there was something amiss. TY.

[TightEnd]

good news for Valverde/Barcelona

Sampaoli of Sevilla has accepted the Argentina job, reportedly. he was favourite for Barcas a couple of months ago

we look to  be heads up with the current assistant manager

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/barcelona/next-permanent-manager

[aaron1867]

Forest 13/10 v Blackburn

[TightEnd]

Forest 13/10 v Blackburn

need more than this

why?

recommended amount?

lowest price?

oddschecker link?

I am just not going to place something without a little bit of effort shown

a line or two would do

thank you

[bergeroo]

Boston Celtics won their division so that NBA bet is a winner. They also beat Cleveland to the number one seeding. The Spurs are number two seed in the west.