Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I was after opinion on Crewe to get promoted a few weeks back at 10/1 (40s for the league) (Although as skinny as 13/2 for relegation as well...) They were much improved after changing manager last year and have some fight and spirit back into the club, I know a lot of fans had stopped going as there seemed no belief from the players that they could win week in, week out. They signed a 15-20 goal a season league 2 striker Chris Porter from Colchester (16 last year), and have added some experience to their usual youthful look. Michael Raynes from Carlisle is a good defender at that level, and they also picked up Eddie Nolan a defender from Blackpool.

In a league where ~10 points usually covers 15 odd teams in the middle, does he think the new signings and better coaching this time around can make a big enough difference to push them into at least the top 7?

Or am I just being an over-ambitious homer?

Would also like to know why Mansfield are the favs for the division (I'll admit I don't follow football as much as I used to, but that seems out of nowhere, there's obviously reasons somewhere)

think the problem might be there's simply no knowledge of Crewe to give a supportive or dissenting opinion....

however at 40-1 and 10-1 to go up there might not need to be

Mansfield. the lovely steve evans, a high profile chairman, big turnover of players. the sexy pick in a weaker division (?) than last year.

[tikay]

League two

quick thoughts to Chompy were

"michael bostwick, played 193 games for PUFC

Signed into L2 with Lincoln

Lincoln earned over £1m from the cup run via prize money and tv

have signed mansfield's striker Green

mansfield are 6/1 to win the division

lincoln 12-1

bostwick is a pretty solid signing for that level isn't he?

we could see Lincoln going straight through this division couldn't we with that budget? plenty of teams have done in the past

rushden, crawley, fleetwood etc when the £££ made a big difference at that level"

his reply was

"Lincoln are the bet in L2 for me. Looks like they're holding on to Raggett and the partnership with Bozzy is the best in the league by a mile.

Bozzy a borderline Posh legend. 100%er but very quietly spoken and lacks ambition. Blackburn were in for him but has always stayed around these parts for family reasons. He's playing below his level but that won't effect his performance levels."

(hope that is ok Chompy, bit pressed to tidy it up and re-write it)

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/winner

what i will say is that coventry are 3rd favourites and not really stable enough (offfield or in squad) yet to be third favourites.

pompey,plymouth etc went out of the division and it doesn't look the strongest heat this time round

would have thought Lincoln each way is a pretty reasonable bet...

Me too. Let's have a dabble. 

[Chompy]

Mansfield are a poor favourite imo.

Fatty Evans has money but bringing in a bunch of Posh also-rans isn't the way forward. Besides which, if things start badly at London Road and McCann gets the boot, there's only one man who'll be next at the helm.

[Cavey007]

I was after opinion on Crewe to get promoted a few weeks back at 10/1 (40s for the league) (Although as skinny as 13/2 for relegation as well...) They were much improved after changing manager last year and have some fight and spirit back into the club, I know a lot of fans had stopped going as there seemed no belief from the players that they could win week in, week out. They signed a 15-20 goal a season league 2 striker Chris Porter from Colchester (16 last year), and have added some experience to their usual youthful look. Michael Raynes from Carlisle is a good defender at that level, and they also picked up Eddie Nolan a defender from Blackpool.

In a league where ~10 points usually covers 15 odd teams in the middle, does he think the new signings and better coaching this time around can make a big enough difference to push them into at least the top 7?

Or am I just being an over-ambitious homer?

Would also like to know why Mansfield are the favs for the division (I'll admit I don't follow football as much as I used to, but that seems out of nowhere, there's obviously reasons somewhere)

think the problem might be there's simply no knowledge of Crewe to give a supportive or dissenting opinion....

however at 40-1 and 10-1 to go up there might not need to be

Mansfield. the lovely steve evans, a high profile chairman, big turnover of players. the sexy pick in a weaker division (?) than last year.

That's fair enough. With it being such a tight division in general it doesn't take a huge amount of change in a club to put them higher or lower than teams around them. I don't think the league is realistic tbh, they have never won the league, usually go up via the playoffs when they do. Had a few trips to Wembley with them. I've had a tenner of my own on them being promoted. But I'm not as clued up as I used to be with the whole thing, have just seen the positivity coming from fan pages and the manager on social media and know they seem a fair bit better on paper this year. So if there's no other opinion then it'd give you another option in league 2! (hills, sj, 365, sunbets all offering 10)

Ah steve evans. That paradigm of human decency. Shame he seems to do the job for a year wherever he goes.

[Karabiner]

Don't want to throw too much of a dampener on lower-league betting but there is always a danger of their best players being sold in January.

I seem to recall that happening to Posh a couple of years ago when they were well placed at Xmas.

[Chompy]

Don't want to throw too much of a dampener on lower-league betting but there is always a danger of their best players being sold in January.

I seem to recall that happening to Posh a couple of years ago when they were well placed at Xmas.

Conor Washington? The collapse that season had more to do with Westley's short-term effect wearing off. What a joke manager that guy is, set Posh back at least a season with his crappy signings, most of whom are now out the door.

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/40725984

Djok out for the rest of 2017.

[Sheriff Fatman]

In Championship I've backed Barnsley on handicaps at plus 32 at 18/1 e/w paying 1/4 odds first four.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/handicaps

Whilst they lost players like Hourihane, Winnall and Roberts, they have an excellent manager in Paul Heckingbottom and have signed some good young players. They aren't the most fashionable club but I think they are underrated and offer a bit of value.

They have midfielder Williams on loan from Everton and striker Ugbo on loan from Chelsea, as well as signing 4-5 up and coming players aged 25 or under from lower league clubs. They seem to have developed the ability to find young talent, develop them and then sell on - look at Stones, Mawson etc etc

Last season they were 23 points off fourth place.

Sheriff Fatman, your opinion please on Barnsley this season

we have one poster thinking they might go down,one wants to support on handicap....

Whilst trying to stay as impartial as possible on this, I'd tend towards RickBFA's views on this more than Chompy's, but will caveat that by pointing out that our fan's forum has its fair share of doom and gloom merchants predicting that we'll be relegated.  In general they're the ones who simply can't get over the sales of Hourihane, Bree and Winnall in the January window and therefore ending our "play-off hopes".  I'm more pragmatic in that, even with near relegation form after January we ended up in a comfortable mid-table position which was way above expectations and our highest league position in a good few years.  Ultimately, we reverted towards the norm and could easily have done the same thing if we'd kept those players.

Our business model nowadays is to accept the fact that we have no chance of competing with the parachute monies and big benefactors that are rife in the Championship and to simply try and recruit smarter than other clubs.  Consequently, we sourcing players from the lower leagues, Scotland, etc and hoping that more of them make the step up than don't.  We then sell them at a profit, preferably outside the January window, then rinse and repeat.

Ultimately, how you judge us is how you rate our recruitment and ability to do that, and I have huge faith in Paul Heckingbottom in this regard.  Unlike Lee Johnson before him, he seems to get the most out of his players (whereas Johnson destroyed the confidence of several of them).

We've recruited heavily over the summer and are still anticipating 3 more signings at least.  Against this we've lost Marc Roberts to Birmingham, Marley Watkins to Norwich and Josh Scowen to QPR, all of which were rumoured to be leaving in January and all of which are great, but replaceable, players.  We still could potentially lose Andy Yiadom (probably to Swansea, if so) before the season begins, but I don't think there's a single player in our squad whose departure would have me thinking they couldn't be replaced.  

I think all our signings fit the model of being under 25, making the step up from a lower league team or are untested/out of contract players from the Premier League.  Zeki Fryers from Palace is the only one with Premier League experience of any significance, but the others all give me cause for optimism.  Ike Ugbo from Chelsea seems to be rated by their fans higher than Tammy Abraham was, and he scored for fun in the Championship last season, despite having Johnson as his manager.

Two of the biggest factors are George Moncur, who spent most of last season on loan or out of favour, but then looked fantastic towards the end of the season and Sessi D'Almeida, who got a season-ending injury at the start of last season.  Both could potentially be like new signings this season, as could Alex Mowatt, who will benefit from a pre-season with us after a disappointing half-season with us.

We're still short of bodies up front, and this is the area where we're expecting to recruit further, but I see no reason why we can't comfortably be operating in a mid-table position this year.  The question mark is whether we can push on from there to be on the fringes of play-off contention (which is an unrealistic expectation, but one which many of our fans now carry).  I believe we're 2nd favorites for relegation, so there's no value there for me.  The handicap bet looks more interesting, as I think the bookies always under-rate us in this division.  We've survived the Championship with far worse squads than we have now and I'd ultimately expect us to at least finish in a similar position to last year, although perhaps with a more balanced 1st and 2nd half of the season rather than the play-off outsiders/relegation form profile of last year.

[TightEnd]

thank you

now that's local knowledge.

[TightEnd]

the point made about transfers etc is obviously valid

same with any lower league ante post stuff, you can have a great promotion bet or your top goalscorer gets sold out of the division (Assombolonga one year i recall) or you can have a great relegation bet and a bad/stale manager gets replaced and the players get motivated. All sorts of things need to "break" for you over a nine month season, injuries included.

plenty can happen

anyway....

Lincoln English League 2 Winner
12/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £340.00

[Stopsleyhatter]

Taking into consideration home team bias Billy Hills 11/8 Luton top southeast club looks a steal.Up against Cambridge Wycombe Stevenage Barnet Crawley.Any 2 from Hylton Collins Vassell and Lee should keep the goals flowing over the season.

[Chompy]

Britt wasn't sold, he just lost out in a three-way battle and was rested for the final game of the season ready for the play-offs. 40-1! Forty!

The other two involved were Sam Baldock and Callum Wilson. Some deece strikerers in L1 that season.

Think it was the same season that Scott Hogan and Sam Winnall were HU for rolls in L2 too.

[TightEnd]

Britt wasn't sold, he just lost out in a three-way battle and was rested for the final game of the season ready for the play-offs. 40-1! Forty!

The other two involved were Sam Baldock and Callum Wilson. Some deece strikerers in L1 that season.

Think it was the same season that Scott Hogan and Sam Winnall were HU for rolls in L2 too.

and their equivalents in L1 and L2 this season are.....?

[Karabiner]

Maureen - who has been moaning about inflated transfer fees this week !!!- and his mancs seem incredibly short to win the league this season - as low as 3/1 in some books.

It's almost as though Lukaku is considered to be a serious upgrade on Ibra - I'm not at all convinced that he is.

Anyone else think untied are way too short in the market?

[PokerBroker]

Maureen - who has been moaning about inflated transfer fees this week !!!- and his mancs seem incredibly short to win the league this season - as low as 3/1 in some books.

It's almost as though Lukaku is considered to be a serious upgrade on Ibra - I'm not at all convinced that he is.

Anyone else think untied are way too short in the market?

I do and have a sizeable bet with a colleague I have City -7 pts v United