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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330352 times)
ripple11
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« Reply #137325 on: May 28, 2020, 02:20:10 PM »

This Gjasula character for Paderborn absolutely loves a booking. 14 in 24. Simple maths would suggest 11/8 is decent right?

No idea on this specifically, but is there a possibility of bookings reducing with potentially less pressure on refs (no fans)?

I haven’t seen the stats but I’ve seen a load of bookings since it’s been back.

Anyway, he got booked. Was 12/5 at half time too.

Good call  thumbs up
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scotty2hatty
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« Reply #137326 on: May 28, 2020, 07:01:18 PM »

15th booking of the season for Gjasula so unsure if that brings up a suspension or not but he's the same price against Dortmund at the weekend.
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Newportlad
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« Reply #137327 on: June 06, 2020, 08:16:58 AM »

15th booking of the season for Gjasula so unsure if that brings up a suspension or not but he's the same price against Dortmund at the weekend.

You can currrently get 7/5 on this at Beteveryday
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TightEnd
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« Reply #137328 on: June 06, 2020, 10:25:25 AM »

Did you know that since the resumption 8 of 38 games so far in the Bundesliga have been home wins?

Is there any reason why with empty stadiums we shouldn't see the same type of trend in the PL when it resumes?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #137329 on: June 06, 2020, 10:26:44 AM »

If you were bored and opposing 8/11 ish 2yo superstar Pinatubo each way for some sport this afternoon, how would you do it?

How much does having a high draw matter (yesterday having the rail seemed to be a big help)?
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scotty2hatty
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« Reply #137330 on: June 06, 2020, 10:58:07 AM »

15th booking of the season for Gjasula so unsure if that brings up a suspension or not but he's the same price against Dortmund at the weekend.

You can currrently get 7/5 on this at Beteveryday

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« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 11:10:01 AM by scotty2hatty » Logged
ripple11
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« Reply #137331 on: June 06, 2020, 11:01:36 AM »

If you were bored and opposing 8/11 ish 2yo superstar Pinatubo each way for some sport this afternoon, how would you do it?

How much does having a high draw matter (yesterday having the rail seemed to be a big help)?

Might have a fiver e/w (1st 4 with beteveryday) on Kinross at 18/1. If high draw is an advantage then 12 seems good. Won well over 7f here.
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« Reply #137332 on: June 06, 2020, 11:16:46 AM »

The Rowley Mile is effectively two courses. Yesterday they were on the far-side half with the stalls on the far side.

Today they're on the stands'-side half with the stalls on the stands' side.

The only time the draw matters when they're stands' side, stands' side is when it's soft. It won't be today. There might be a rail bias or a centre bias but it can't be predicted pre-meeting.

Because of the shitty terms with most layers there's no each-way value. Unless you can get the fifth four spots with 365 (nobody can if they want an account to last) or PP (nobody can full stop). In which case Listen's pair and Kameko are all good.
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« Reply #137333 on: June 06, 2020, 11:22:28 AM »

Did you know that since the resumption 8 of 38 games so far in the Bundesliga have been home wins?

Is there any reason why with empty stadiums we shouldn't see the same type of trend in the PL when it resumes?

Yes. The expected goals has been telling a different story.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkTaylor0/status/1264825207430295555

Home advantage must be less without the crowd, but it's not as bad as it looks, on that sample.

My guess is the biggest factor will be squad depth, given five subs and quick turnaround between games.
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« Reply #137334 on: June 06, 2020, 11:26:06 AM »

The Rowley Mile is effectively two courses. Yesterday they were on the far-side half with the stalls on the far side.

Today they're on the stands'-side half with the stalls on the stands' side.

The only time the draw matters when they're stands' side, stands' side is when it's soft. It won't be today. There might be a rail bias or a centre bias but it can't be predicted pre-meeting.

Because of the shitty terms with most layers there's no each-way value. Unless you can get the fifth four spots with 365 (nobody can if they want an account to last) or PP (nobody can full stop). In which case Listen's pair and Kameko are all good.

Quite like Mum's Tipple at a big price.  It was said to be lame after its last run, and if you forgive that the run before was very good.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
kukushkin88
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« Reply #137335 on: June 06, 2020, 11:56:10 AM »


I’d like to hear some views on this idea/angle. I think because of the uniquely disrupted preparation for a top class race, there’ll be a big discrepancy on who has their horses at their very best and who doesn’t. I like the idea of backing stable mates, it might be a (sort of) related contingency, that won’t be reflected in the price. Backing the Appleby two in a reverse forecast and the all kinds of combos on the ‘Listen’ horses, including the big priced ones (unless we think they’ll be sacrificing their chance for pacemaking duties). It might be crazy but a big up side if there’s anything to it. Thoughts?
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Doobs
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« Reply #137336 on: June 06, 2020, 12:02:06 PM »


I’d like to hear some views on this idea/angle. I think because of the uniquely disrupted preparation for a top class race, there’ll be a big discrepancy on who has their horses at their very best and who doesn’t. I like the idea of backing stable mates, it might be a (sort of) related contingency, that won’t be reflected in the price. Backing the Appleby two in a reverse forecast and the all kinds of combos on the ‘Listen’ horses, including the big priced ones (unless we think they’ll be sacrificing their chance for pacemaking duties). It might be crazy but a big up side if there’s anything to it. Thoughts?

They are always issues with backing horses first time up.  I'd still be looking to fill my boots whilst the each way offers are good.  Just accept some are going to go horribly wrong right now.  Hopefully things will be clearer by Ascot and the decent terms will still be there.

I think you are right to an extent on he stable mates, but not sure the link is going to be strrong enough to get over the rake taken from reverse forecasts.

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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #137337 on: June 06, 2020, 12:30:49 PM »

Wind direction will be massive today. It's pretty blowy here. Fast ground on the Rowley with the wind behind and they rarely come back.

The shape of the race will be interesting. Mums Tipple is a lovely angle horse, for the reason Doobs sayed and also because he's a front-runner drawn on the flank. Stall 1 effecitvely has him down the middle of the course and he'll probably stay there but if I had a front-runner drawn 1 here I'd take him off to race against the far (dividing) rail. He might end up getting a solo if he does that. A Philip Robinson or Ray Cochrane would have suggested trying it but today's crop of jocks aren't as clued up on that front.

Listen has four runners, drawn 2, 8, 9, 13. We all know he'll try and team tactic a way of getting Pinatubo beaten and New World Tapestry and Wichita are drawn in the two nextdoor stalls. He might use the 150-1 shot to try and fire him up. He might also use Royal Dornoch in stall 2 to split the field. I can't believe Pinatubo will do anything other than come stands' side from 7 but he's slap in the middle of the field and Buick will have to decide, especially if the field fragments early.
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« Reply #137338 on: June 06, 2020, 01:36:51 PM »

Tailwind confirmed.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #137339 on: June 06, 2020, 02:17:15 PM »


Thanks Chomps and Doobs.

I am going for the r/f on the Appleby two and combination tricast on the O’Brien four, first time I’ve done 4 in a combo tricast, can’t remember another anyway. I take the point about the vig taking some of our edge (if I’m right) but I really think the stable differences will be exaggerated by them not having had their choice of preparation. Let’s call it a one off experiment, for now.
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