The Cheltenham 2012 Thread

[edgascoigne]

I currently have the following...


Albert Bartlett
Sea of Thunder 1pt ew @ 20s -- was going like a train when falling at the last over C&D in December, with the subsequent 1st and 2nd both having won since. Only 5th in reappearance at Leopardstown but not sure if the ground or the trip really to liking that day - put in a clear round of jumping and was eased up well before the line. C&D form counts for a lot imo, and with Boston Bob and Fingal Bay likely headed to other races would expect this to shorten up to around the 12/1 mark.
 
Triumph Hurdle
Dildar 2pt Win @ 12s -- Punted this (like I'm sure many others) in advance of today's race at Taunton - noises from the yard and in particular Dan Skelton very bullish indeed. Would need to show a lot of improvement on today's run to even make the frame at the festival, but I'm holding onto the hope that he'll come on for the run and his jumping will be sharper in the future (absolute must for the Triumph). On the flat he ran to a few lengths of Pour Moi, so he's not short of a turn of foot. Ruby seemed positive about the horse after today's ride.
 
Supreme
Darlan 1pt ew @ 20s -- Nicked the 20s from Billy Hills in the minutes proceeding his oh-so-easy win over the previously highly regarded Jump City. The horse is four from four, and though he might not have met stiff competition yet I feel he has a lot more in the tank than we've seen - certainly the nature of his win last out would suggest so. Price movements will be largely dependent on if/when he runs in the next couple of weeks. Has an entry at Newbury on 11th Feb where he'd be running against Zarkandar which would be an interesting yardstick, though believe Henderson thinks he's been 3lb overdone in the weights by the handicapper so might not run him there.  
 
Ryanair
Medermit 1pt ew @ 20s -- Alan King's seem to be going well at the moment, and this horse has plenty of experience round Cheltenham. I saw him get done by Quantitativeeasing in the big December handicap. Let's not forget he had 11-5 on his back that day and beat Calgary Bay (10-7) about 12 lengths...Since then Calgary Bay is 2/2.
 
Gold Cup
Grands Crus 1pt ew @ (NRNB) -- I love the horse to bits, and part of me hopes he doesn't yet go for the Gold Cup. This said, more than happy to be on him NRNB. He clocked a time c3secs quicker than Kauto over the same distance and fences at Kempton on Boxing Day, without being overly extended. Just think he has a massive engine and jumps nicely. Very classy horse. Proven at Cheltenham and will win whatever race he runs in imo.

Have added the following:

Supreme
Steps to Freedom 2pt Win @ - Heard this is highly fancied at home (which you would expect for something at the head of a highly competitive market). Had a number of the leading Supreme contenders easily beaten in the Aintree bumper (where he gave Montbazon 6lbs). Has been off the track for a few months but I have no doubt Jessie Harington will have him 'match fit' on the day. She's swerving the blow he was due to have at Dundalk, wouldn't be surprised if they are keeping under wraps in advance of an opening day gamble.


On the other runners things seem to be shaping nicely in the most part (touch wood) but +EV is only theoretical and worth a lot less than cash in one's pocket. Medermit has been tipped up by Pricewise and the Timeform Jury which has led to the price falling to c8/1 and the Albert Bartlett is cutting up (Boston Bob's target remains tbc) with Sea of Thunder now 10/1. Darlan fell at Newbury in the big handicap hurdle but, assuming he's come out of that ok I'm relatively bullish. McCoy chose to ride Darlan over Get me Out of Here, which finished second to Zarkandar off level weights. Darlan was tanking when it fell and, assuming it found a bit when asked, would, by the logic of AP's choice, been right up there getting just 5lbs from Zarkandar.

Grands Crus - Pipe keeping cards close to chest but think 8/1 NRNB remains a fair bet. Dildar - runs tomorrow in the Adonis where we'll have everything crossed he can come on for his last run and mix it with a number of other smart Triumph entries.

Best of luck to all,

Ed

[action man]

i have colour squadron and midnight game in the supreme. In its last race squadron fell when it had got the better of vulcanite, but seemed to not want to get to the front too soon and whether it would have beaten montbazon is a guessing game. I do like how it travelled through the race though. Pretty gutted about doing my money on grandouet as i love this horse and think it has so much raw speed and a change of gear that at 4/1 fit ew w/o the fly was a bet to nothing. With regards the race now, ill be looking to bet zarkander w/o the fly or in a match bet with binocular i think.

[action man]

ive added, Baile Anrai for the national hunt cup at 16s and i really like monksland for the neptune at 14's

[edgascoigne]

re: Montbazon King's are certainly flying at the moment, whether this form will hold 'til the festival remains to be seen.

Disappointed for you re: Grandouet, agree it was a bet to nothing if lining up - sigh. Zarkandar won cosily in the end at Newbury - incred ride by Ruby. Obv Ruby will be on the Fly come the big day, but given Zarkandar won the Triumph last year with Jacob on no major concerns there.

re: Binocular - one just never knows. I try to stay away from any bet specifically sensitive to the thing to be honest.

[edgascoigne]

ive added, Baile Anrai for the national hunt cup at 16s and i really like monksland for the neptune at 14's

Monksland price gone now unfortunately. Speculation is he will be Pricewise's Neptune selection...

[action man]

the weatherby's betting guide has arrived but i missed the delivery so have to wait until tommorow to pick up. Looking forward to getting teeth stuck into that. I HAVE FESTIVAL FEVER NOW

[action man]

Just booked us into the chapel spa on tuesday morning 10am for a full 55min swedish body massage, oioi, clear minds and all, £48 each bargains

[The Camel]

i have colour squadron and midnight game in the supreme. In its last race squadron fell when it had got the better of vulcanite, but seemed to not want to get to the front too soon and whether it would have beaten montbazon is a guessing game. I do like how it travelled through the race though. Pretty gutted about doing my money on grandouet as i love this horse and think it has so much raw speed and a change of gear that at 4/1 fit ew w/o the fly was a bet to nothing. With regards the race now, ill be looking to bet zarkander w/o the fly or in a match bet with binocular i think.

You are on drugs if you think Colour Squadron was going to win the Newbury race it fell in.

[The Camel]

Just booked us into the chapel spa on tuesday morning 10am for a full 55min swedish body massage, oioi, clear minds and all, £48 each bargains

What days are you going Trigg?

[action man]

we are travelling down tuesday 6am arrive at our hotel (not in chelts) str8 to cheltenham 10am ---> races---> on the town    3am back to hotel ----> sleep hotel  check out but leave bags at hote, mate driving to course wednesday, then we drive back after. This is unless we
decide to stay the week

[edgascoigne]

Have now added...

Champion Bumper
Moscow Mannon 1pt Win @ 10/1 - Scoring nil points for originality here and not a race I know much about (starting well!) but have read some fairly compelling stats to suggest he should be there or thereabouts on the day. He's posted decent/market leading RPR and TS figures and I like the fight he showed at Galway last summer. Though people may look for 'improvers' I think there's a lot to be said for a horse with proven form in a race where hype often spirals out of all control, so MM has my bumper £££s.

[Simon Galloway]

Bet365 are now NRNB for the festival

[Simon Galloway]

Any idea if Sous Les Cieux will go for the Supreme Novices or the Neptune?

[action man]

Does anyone fancy doing a preview night, haydock this thursday looks tasty!

[Karabiner]

PP have a money-back special up to £100 if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle which is great for Al Ferof fans.