A thread of winter woes and hopefully some cheer?

[tikay]

Horsey is on FIRE!

[horseplayer]

mildly warm sir fire is a bit strong

but thanks

[horseplayer]

much better day

blue surf only just won but won well the sire has now developed a massive rep for soft ground performances and the horse probably has more to give if needed (novemeber handicap anyone?) settled at 7-1 as it drifted late

the goldophin thing made a decent middle move then stopped like it was injured

kittens doesnt make it easy (touched 100-1 in running) and never looked to get involved until the last half a furlong helped to be chasing a horse that wears basically a whole sheep on its head horse is quietly progressive and might one day win a race easily at this level

tommorow is a day away from the computer im knackered and still feeling ill and there is no flat racing

thanks all

running total = £ 1857.12

[horseplayer]

nothing to do with anything but just seen this clip again

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WmzbEW1oSWc


harchibald like me very quirky

[horseplayer]

and a comedy clip for a saturday night

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVMY-VX7NyA

[horseplayer]

Quite often so far i have mentioned trainer form as one of the more key elements to my bets

This unfourtantley isnt as simple as saying Trainer a is 6=22 the last two weeks and is thus in form. Very unlikely but if trainer a has had 18 horses start sub evens then he isnt really in form.

A much better way of gauging trainer form is by using a a/e calculation (against expectation) If a trainer has had 50 runners without a win but the market has deemed the majority 20-1+ bigger shots is he really out of form? Well yes he is but not against expectation or by not a great deal anyway.

Perhaps the most important factor is if the media are all constantly stating "trainer a is in red hot form" it is probably to late as this will be factored in. In the mostly lower grades that i back in if you can spot a new or smaller trainer whose 50-1 rags are managing to finish in or close to the money you can assume they are in form or at least not out of it and have a vague idea what they are doing and are probably capable of training a winner if the horse is good enough.

I try and avoid trainers who constantly underachieve against a/e season after season. This illustrates one of either two things (or both) The trainer isn't very good or just as likely the trainer or his workforce are constantly driving down the price of his runners due to such statements as "working well at home"

An example of this is somebody like Jeremy Noseda who without doubt can train a horse. However his runners constantly are overbet according to the stats i use and more often than start shorter than his record suggests they do. The yard is notoriously leaky for information as my old man told me a few years ago now "if the stable lad really knew this horse was a 85 rated animal why is he still getting up at 5am every day to shovel shit?"


 

[horseplayer]

nothing today

[horseplayer]

there is going to be at least 3 bets in total tommorow i think

pretty sure the prices will hold up but im putting one up now

7.10 WOLVERHAMPTON SHESTHEMAN  7-1 £30 WIN

i think it'll go forward and be ridden more aggressively over this distance, they dropped it in last time over this trip because it was in stall 12 better draw tommorow night is definitely at least fairly handicapped this race looks a lot weaker than its last two expect it to be near fav come the off

I like a rag in the race to but cant see it being backed so will wait for hopefully 33-1 tommorow

[horseplayer]

2.50 CATTERICK  £25 WIN SPHINX 11-2 LADDIES OR BET VICTOR

right not often a 14 year old is a good bet but if you can ignore this tough old boys age then he is the best horse in this race. Loves the ground travelled like a dream last time in a much better race won on 3rd start back after a long break last season (3rd start after long break today) loves to win should be laughing at these younger rivals and hopefully wont need to come of the bridle

[horseplayer]

6.10 already have the main bet but i have added THUNDERSTRUCK 28-1 general £10 win

trainer in much better form has won on all weather before at big prices may get an easyish lead looks overpriced

[Tal]

2.50 CATTERICK  £25 WIN SPHINX 11-2 LADDIES OR BET VICTOR

right not often a 14 year old is a good bet but if you can ignore this tough old boys age then he is the best horse in this race. Loves the ground travelled like a dream last time in a much better race won on 3rd start back after a long break last season (3rd start after long break today) loves to win should be laughing at these younger rivals and hopefully wont need to come of the bridle

13-2 on betfair

[horseplayer]

2.50 CATTERICK  £25 WIN SPHINX 11-2 LADDIES OR BET VICTOR

right not often a 14 year old is a good bet but if you can ignore this tough old boys age then he is the best horse in this race. Loves the ground travelled like a dream last time in a much better race won on 3rd start back after a long break last season (3rd start after long break today) loves to win should be laughing at these younger rivals and hopefully wont need to come of the bridle

13-2 on betfair

yep

i am not quoting exchange prices as generally speaking in the races i bet in the liquidity is shocking until the off

fairer if i quote a price "most" can get on at

[Dubai]

Assume a 14yr old drifting wouldnt worry you anyway? As explained in Moneyball it fits the bill of something thats going to be undervalued based on perceived physical flaws

[Tal]

2.50 CATTERICK  £25 WIN SPHINX 11-2 LADDIES OR BET VICTOR

right not often a 14 year old is a good bet but if you can ignore this tough old boys age then he is the best horse in this race. Loves the ground travelled like a dream last time in a much better race won on 3rd start back after a long break last season (3rd start after long break today) loves to win should be laughing at these younger rivals and hopefully wont need to come of the bridle

13-2 on betfair

yep

i am not quoting exchange prices as generally speaking in the races i bet in the liquidity is shocking until the off

fairer if i quote a price "most" can get on at

Ah OK. Thanks.

[horseplayer]

Assume a 14yr old drifting wouldnt worry you anyway? As explained in Moneyball it fits the bill of something thats going to be undervalued based on perceived physical flaws

correct

its one of those races the fact it is 14 years old is almost irelevant

the last run was better than anything else any other horse did in this race

the horse has had 41 flat starts which isnt anymore than the average 6 or 7 year old at this level