US Election

[The Camel]

The thing is it is close.  In all probability both of the candidates will get close to 50% of the vote and it is a probably 95%+ chance that both will poll within 2% points of each other in terms of the popular vote but that really doesn't matter because of the electoral college voting system in the states.  If Romney wins the popular vote there is still a decent chance Obama becomes president.  If Obama wins the popular vote there is less than a 1% chance he loses the presidency.  Despite my confidence in Obama winning I still believe there are risk factors.  In Ohio the guy in charge of the voting process is a Republican that is trying his best to tilt the voting process there against the Democrats through various different legal means and I think there will be other tricks like that.  I am not sure that Americans are embarrassed to be voting for Romney.  We are talking about Americans here and pretending to be liberal isn't a fashionable trait in the way it is in Europe, if it was the tea party wouldn't have so much popular support and the media wouldn't be dominated by idiots like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.

What % of your net wealth would you put on Obama at 1/2? (And you aren't allowed to hedge obviously)

[redarmi]

10-15% and I would feel nitty about it.

[aaron1867]

After reading and listening to some of the media outlets about this, it seems like it's terribly close. But you know what the media are like trying to make a story out of absolute nothing & sometimes bigging up the stories. Look at the storm over there last week, they hyped it up so bad and said it was a massive hurricane, but in all reality it was a strong storm, rather than hurricane. Even many people living in those hit places, said it was more of a storm.

I think they are hyping this up to be really close & I don't think it will be. I think it will be closer than other elections, but Obama will come out on top. There is absolute no way Romney can win in states that he is after, especially in Ohio, which is the one supposed to make or break either election.

[Jon MW]

... There is absolute no way Romney can win in states that he is after...

If that is true - then it isn't close

From what I've read the popular vote will be close but the votes in the swing states are going to Obama. Even taking in to account that people won't want to admit they support Romney it looks like his only chance is if a lot of Obama supporters don't turn up to vote and given how close the media are hyping it - that seems unlikely.

[AndrewT]

The popular vote is meaningless - it doesn't matter how many votes each candidate rack up in California, New York or Texas, those results aren't going to change. All that matters is the nine or so swing states and Obama has a small, but consistent lead in the polls in each of the ones he needs to win, with a couple spare as well.

There's always the possibility of shenanigans going on, and there have been plenty of rumblings of that in Florida (surprise, surprise) with six-hour long queues to vote in the more Democrat-strong areas, but I think that the Republicans can only steal the election now, rather than win it fairly.

[Royal Flush]

After reading and listening to some of the media outlets about this, it seems like it's terribly close. But you know what the media are like trying to make a story out of absolute nothing & sometimes bigging up the stories. Look at the storm over there last week, they hyped it up so bad and said it was a massive hurricane, but in all reality it was a strong storm, rather than hurricane. Even many people living in those hit places, said it was more of a storm.

I think they are hyping this up to be really close & I don't think it will be. I think it will be closer than other elections, but Obama will come out on top. There is absolute no way Romney can win in states that he is after, especially in Ohio, which is the one supposed to make or break either election.

Tbf Sandy was clearly always going to be a storm rather than a hurricane, it was more about the sheer size of the storm that made it so interesting. It's the largest ever record storm system in the Atlantic ocean, definitely very news worthy.

[Doobs]

After reading and listening to some of the media outlets about this, it seems like it's terribly close. But you know what the media are like trying to make a story out of absolute nothing & sometimes bigging up the stories. Look at the storm over there last week, they hyped it up so bad and said it was a massive hurricane, but in all reality it was a strong storm, rather than hurricane. Even many people living in those hit places, said it was more of a storm.

I think they are hyping this up to be really close & I don't think it will be. I think it will be closer than other elections, but Obama will come out on top. There is absolute no way Romney can win in states that he is after, especially in Ohio, which is the one supposed to make or break either election.

Tbf Sandy was clearly always going to be a storm rather than a hurricane, it was more about the sheer size of the storm that made it so interesting. It's the largest ever record storm system in the Atlantic ocean, definitely very news worthy.

Sandy was a category 2 hurricane when it hit the Caribbean.  It weakened approaching the Staes, only to strengthen back to category 1.  It may not have been that strong at landfall, but it was definitely a hurricane at times.  Of course some people would have experienced a less severe storm than others.

Wiki says it became some kind of cyclone as it approached the states, but it all feels like semantics.  It was clearly a very big storm that caused a huge amount of damage.  Didn't need hyping, as some of the pictures were shocking. 

Of course if Haiti was home to as many media outlets as the States, and we had more interest in their country, them our news would have been different.

[Royal Flush]

It was an exceptionally week hurricane as it hit the us, was a storm within a matter of minutes. Like I say the sheer size of the storm was the difference in this case.

[kinboshi]

Definitely a hurricane, but it only devastated Haiti, Cuba and other Caribbean islands when it was at his height - so it doesn't count...

[Royal Flush]

Yes like I said 'when it hit the us'

[tikay]

Meanwhile, getting back to the election......

Paddy Power have already paid out on bets for Obama to win.

[Laxie]

That Paddy Power has paid out is insane imo.  They need to cut back on their pint intake.

[TommyD]

To sum up my thoughts on Paddy Power paying out early

[AndrewT]

Whilst there is all this PP love it's also worth pointing out that on Sunday someone tried to bet on a tie at 100/1 and was restricted to eight pence.

[horseplayer]

they are not doing it out the kindness of there green heart