Darts Betting and discussion

[Bazzaboy]

GG Cadby. Loses to Josh Payne in the semis.

[SuuPRlim]

was pretty outrageous to have him 40/1 for the worlds when he wasnt even gtd to qualify

[Bazzaboy]

Jackpot loses to Stevenson in last 64 of GSOD qualifier. That’s not going to help his ranking any. PL place going to be under threat unless he finds something in the next month or so.

[SuuPRlim]

Jackpot loses to Stevenson in last 64 of GSOD qualifier. That’s not going to help his ranking any. PL place going to be under threat unless he finds something in the next month or so.

He's totally gone at the moment, looking at him he doesn't that uncomfortable from the injury, looks fine - just not throwing them at the right places. I think it's probably a combination of severe lack of practice (new baby + surgery + laziness) and perhaps he's had to alter some mechanic in his flow and he's just not used to it yet....or even worse perhaps the wonderful free-flow rhythm he has when he's on-song has been affected by his surgery, maybe he'll never get it back?

Anyways, he's in big trouble here. He will lose £200k between now and the end of the worlds, he only has the Players and the Worlds to do it in.

This is the players champs prize money;

Winner      £100,000
Runner-Up      £40,000
Semi-finalists   £23,000
Quarter-finalists £12,500
Last 16         £8,000
Last 32         £5,000
Last 64         £2,500

And the Worlds;

Winner              £400,000
Runner-up              £170,000
Semi-finalist          £85,000
Quarter-finalist      £40,000
Third round losers   £27,000
Second round losers   £18,500
First round losers   £11,000

So, with £200k to make up just maintain his ranking points (which doesn't even guarantee top 5) you have to wonder where the hell this money is gonna come from, if he made the semi finals of both the players and the worlds (which has to be like 40s+ on his current form) that would be £111k in cashes and give him £286k in rankings money, and on todays figures that would put him world #12.

If he quarter finals them both, thats £52.5k in prize money, that puts him at £227.5k in prize money and right this minute would put him world #19.

The big saving grace for Jackpot is the buffer between  ~16 and ~22 in the world, this effectively means that in the short term, even cashes of £25k-£35k which would be a disaster for Jackpot, will probably still keep him in the top 20.

16   Ian White              £248,250
17   Gerwyn Price      £244,750
18   Kim Huybrechts      £237,250
19   Joe Cullen              £215,750
20   Mervyn King      £183,500
21   Stephen Bunting      £180,000
22   Kyle Anderson      £176,500
23   Rob Cross              £172,250
24   Steve Beaton      £168,000
25   Darren Webster      £166,000
26   Cristo Reyes      £144,250

The danger is this buffer is getting close in, Rob Cross, Kyle Anderson, and Joe Cullen not defending any real money and all in good form, don't really see too much danger from the pack just below that JUST yet for Adrian so as desperate as the situation is for him in terms of his top 16 ranking I think he should be fairly safe in his top 24/32 rankings, with only £112k to defend next year and thanks to this year hardly a penny to defend in 2019 a return to form in 2018 and a decent run in a major would probably see him on course to recover his top 10 rankings.

Biggest question is though once out of the world top 16 he's going to need to qualify for certain events and have much much tougher draws, going to need to start really grinding the pro/euro tours, will require work ethic we just don't know if he has. Next year will be a big year for him.

I think as it currently stands he'll probably pip Chizzy to a sky wild card pick along with Barney for the PL. Doesn't deserve his spot though, and tbh for the longevity of his career might be better if he missed out - let him focus on tour events and build some money up on his rankings. If he can start to perform well on the floor and put a solid £100k of tour cashes together. Realistically though he might be never coming back in which case picking up a quick 80k from the PL might be the last money he can make.

It's very bad news basically.

[Bazzaboy]

Group E looks a bit tasty at the GSOD

Snakebite, Chuck, Cadby, Durrant

[Horneris]

Group A
(1) Michael van Gerwen
Rob Cross
Joe Murnan
Ross Montgomery

Group B
( Raymond van Barneveld
Gerwyn Price
Steve Lennon
Jamie Hughes

Group C
(5) Phil Taylor
James Wade
Robbie Green
Peter Machin

Group D
(4) Daryl Gurney
Darren Webster
Mark Webster
Danny Noppert

Group E
(2) Peter Wright
Alan Norris
Corey Cadby
Glen Durrant

Group F
(7) Dave Chisnall
Stephen Bunting
Jeffrey de Zwaan
Scott Mitchell

Group G
(6) Mensur Suljovic
Michael Smith
James Wilson
Mark McGeeney

Group H
(3) Gary Anderson
Simon Whitlock
Berry van Peer
Cameron Menzies

[arbboy]

Jackpot loses to Stevenson in last 64 of GSOD qualifier. That’s not going to help his ranking any. PL place going to be under threat unless he finds something in the next month or so.

He's totally gone at the moment, looking at him he doesn't that uncomfortable from the injury, looks fine - just not throwing them at the right places. I think it's probably a combination of severe lack of practice (new baby + surgery + laziness) and perhaps he's had to alter some mechanic in his flow and he's just not used to it yet....or even worse perhaps the wonderful free-flow rhythm he has when he's on-song has been affected by his surgery, maybe he'll never get it back?

Anyways, he's in big trouble here. He will lose £200k between now and the end of the worlds, he only has the Players and the Worlds to do it in.

This is the players champs prize money;

Winner      £100,000
Runner-Up      £40,000
Semi-finalists   £23,000
Quarter-finalists £12,500
Last 16         £8,000
Last 32         £5,000
Last 64         £2,500

And the Worlds;

Winner              £400,000
Runner-up              £170,000
Semi-finalist          £85,000
Quarter-finalist      £40,000
Third round losers   £27,000
Second round losers   £18,500
First round losers   £11,000

So, with £200k to make up just maintain his ranking points (which doesn't even guarantee top 5) you have to wonder where the hell this money is gonna come from, if he made the semi finals of both the players and the worlds (which has to be like 40s+ on his current form) that would be £111k in cashes and give him £286k in rankings money, and on todays figures that would put him world #12.

If he quarter finals them both, thats £52.5k in prize money, that puts him at £227.5k in prize money and right this minute would put him world #19.

The big saving grace for Jackpot is the buffer between  ~16 and ~22 in the world, this effectively means that in the short term, even cashes of £25k-£35k which would be a disaster for Jackpot, will probably still keep him in the top 20.

16   Ian White              £248,250
17   Gerwyn Price      £244,750
18   Kim Huybrechts      £237,250
19   Joe Cullen              £215,750
20   Mervyn King      £183,500
21   Stephen Bunting      £180,000
22   Kyle Anderson      £176,500
23   Rob Cross              £172,250
24   Steve Beaton      £168,000
25   Darren Webster      £166,000
26   Cristo Reyes      £144,250

The danger is this buffer is getting close in, Rob Cross, Kyle Anderson, and Joe Cullen not defending any real money and all in good form, don't really see too much danger from the pack just below that JUST yet for Adrian so as desperate as the situation is for him in terms of his top 16 ranking I think he should be fairly safe in his top 24/32 rankings, with only £112k to defend next year and thanks to this year hardly a penny to defend in 2019 a return to form in 2018 and a decent run in a major would probably see him on course to recover his top 10 rankings.

Biggest question is though once out of the world top 16 he's going to need to qualify for certain events and have much much tougher draws, going to need to start really grinding the pro/euro tours, will require work ethic we just don't know if he has. Next year will be a big year for him.

I think as it currently stands he'll probably pip Chizzy to a sky wild card pick along with Barney for the PL. Doesn't deserve his spot though, and tbh for the longevity of his career might be better if he missed out - let him focus on tour events and build some money up on his rankings. If he can start to perform well on the floor and put a solid £100k of tour cashes together. Realistically though he might be never coming back in which case picking up a quick 80k from the PL might be the last money he can make.

It's very bad news basically.

This has been coming for a long time though tbh and, imo, it is only the huge distortion in the prize money at the World's every year that has allowed him to maintain his top 5 spot for so long.  2 wins, runner up and a few deep runs into Semi's since 2011.  He has basically just punted his entire ranking for years on his ability to turn up once a year and perform in the biggest event of the year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrian_Lewis

If you look at his career best results in each event.  Nothing has happened in the past 4/5 years since 2013.  Not quite sure how he has constantly managed to stay top 4/5 between 2011-now.    I really worry for him as i don't think he has the work ethic to grind it back from the leisure centres at the weekends in Barnsley/Crawley etc.

[Horneris]

Grand Slam

I've instantly weighed in on Bet Victor's opening 10/1 on De Zwaan to win Group F. They restricted me and cut it to 7/1 so my account could be in trouble. Worth looking out for as other books comes out. I also wonder if there will be a "To Qualify" market.

Chizzy has had back problems and has looked unhappy with his game, Scott Mitchell has shown no recent form on the BDO circuit and De Zwaan recently beat Bunting 6-2 in a Players Championship in which he made the semi finals. He beat Ian White, Robert Thornton and Johnny Clayton to qualify for this and I think he should be 2nd fav and will be looking to back him against both Bunting and especially Mitchell.

Also interested in the Darren Webster prices in Group D. Mark Webster was horrific last weekend and Noppert not been near his best recently. Webster ridic solid and powered through his qualification matches with ease. Gurney obv pure class but not averse to throwing a wobbly one in.

[SuuPRlim]

Basically that £150k 2 years ago at the worlds is what's done it.

I agree, don't think he's got it in him, would like to be proven wrong though, hopefully he pulls his socks up next year and has a good, I think a strong year 2018 gets him back to the top 10 and back with some confidence.


CMON THE GRAND SLAM!!! SOOOOOOOOOOOO MANY GAMES

[arbboy]

Basically that £150k 2 years ago at the worlds is what's done it.

I agree, don't think he's got it in him, would like to be proven wrong though, hopefully he pulls his socks up next year and has a good, I think a strong year 2018 gets him back to the top 10 and back with some confidence.


CMON THE GRAND SLAM!!! SOOOOOOOOOOOO MANY GAMES

Jackpot will win the world's this year and we will wonder what all the fuss was about when he gets his rightful spot back in the top 4 in the world!

Anderson has £300k coming off his £700k total at the world's this year so he could easily start falling back into the pack as well without a huge world's this year.   Snake is only defending £35k so all things being equal he will be miles clear 2nd at the start of next year.  Could easily be £500k clear of Ando if he won the world's and Ando bombed out early doors.

[SuuPRlim]

Grand Slam

I've instantly weighed in on Bet Victor's opening 10/1 on De Zwaan to win Group F. They restricted me and cut it to 7/1 so my account could be in trouble. Worth looking out for as other books comes out. I also wonder if there will be a "To Qualify" market.

Chizzy has had back problems and has looked unhappy with his game, Scott Mitchell has shown no recent form on the BDO circuit and De Zwaan recently beat Bunting 6-2 in a Players Championship in which he made the semi finals. He beat Ian White, Robert Thornton and Johnny Clayton to qualify for this and I think he should be 2nd fav and will be looking to back him against both Bunting and especially Mitchell.

Also interested in the Darren Webster prices in Group D. Mark Webster was horrific last weekend and Noppert not been near his best recently. Webster ridic solid and powered through his qualification matches with ease. Gurney obv pure class but not averse to throwing a wobbly one in.

Great pick on de Zwaan  imo.

Group B is interesting as the two "big names" Price and Barney are, frankly speaking, very unimpressive of late, the two lesser known guys are interesting, Jamie Hughes made BDO semis and actually I remember him hammering chizzy last year with some sicko average. Steve Lennon has looked really impressive in patches this year and is just missing consistency, wouldn't want to back RVB or Price against either of them in a BO9 and super short prices, be interesting to see the prices there when the "qualify" markets come out.

Group C is just an absolute cake-walk for big Phil, he's probably a legit 1/4 shot to finish top but I reckon he'll probably be shorter than that. Bookies tend to over-estimate James Wade despite all the evidence this year, so i feel like there is value here in there. Machin doesn't look like he'll be able to compete with a group even this week. I guess The Kong to qualify is the first place I'll look for a bet in this.

Group G stands out as a potential spot for some value, James Wilson is one of the most improved guys on tour this year, he's upped his doubling from low 30s to high 30s and he's a decent scorer. Mensur proving very hard to beat these days but he is more than capable of randomly going off the boil and Smith when he loses his rhythm can just go awol for 3-4 legs which makes you so venerable in a BO9. The BDO guy McGeeney doesn't really look like he has the calibre to compete in what is actually a pretty competitive group, James Wilson to qualify and to top the group I will look at too.

Nothing standing out on the outrights - maybe Whitlock at 66s with the 1/2 EW terms, not the easiest draw though, decent chance he has to play Mensur/Garry/Wright/MVG to win

[SuuPRlim]

Basically that £150k 2 years ago at the worlds is what's done it.

I agree, don't think he's got it in him, would like to be proven wrong though, hopefully he pulls his socks up next year and has a good, I think a strong year 2018 gets him back to the top 10 and back with some confidence.


CMON THE GRAND SLAM!!! SOOOOOOOOOOOO MANY GAMES

Jackpot will win the world's this year and we will wonder what all the fuss was about when he gets his rightful spot back in the top 4 in the world!

Anderson has £300k coming off his £700k total at the world's this year so he could easily start falling back into the pack as well without a huge world's this year.   Snake is only defending £35k so all things being equal he will be miles clear 2nd at the start of next year.  Could easily be £500k clear of Ando if he won the world's and Ando bombed out early doors.

Defo yeah, Garry will have to put a good show in at the worlds to stave off DG's attack on world #3. Good thing for Garry is he looked good last week, he's in all three of the upcoming majors with good draws in 2 of them (probably) so whereas he's a dog to match £320k he's defending he's probably fancying his chances of at least £100k and that should keep him above Gurney for a little while longer. Garry hardly played on tour this year but says he'll be back on the Euro Tour and a more fuller tour schedule next year. I think Garry realises that anything shy of winning the worlds and he'll be very very unlikely to catch up PW in #2.

MVG could take the year off his #1 spot is safe

[YorkshireSal]

Based on chisnalls problems, think bunting at 6/1 for most 180s in that group is big!

[SuuPRlim]

whoaoaaaaaaaaoooooo

[HutchGF]

Any fancies today lads?

As mentioned, I like De Zwann and Wilson on handicaps.

What do we think about Wright vs Durrant? Not really a big follower of BDO so don't know too much about his form?