I wrote this on 11 Jan Dewi
Still all applies. Has to be a down year for Wales doesn't it? France squad looks hugely strong, but the schedule is bad for them in odd years (easier in even years)
anyway...
We are a couple of weeks away from the Start of the Six Nations, one of the best sporting periods of the year
The fixtures are as follows
Sat 2 Feb: Wales v Ireland, England v Scotland
Sun 3 Feb: Italy v France
Sat 9 Feb: Scotland v Italy, France v Wales
Sun 10 Feb: Ireland v England
Sat 23 Feb: Italy v Wales, England v France
Sun 24 Feb: Scotland v Ireland
Sat 9 Mar: Scotland v Wales, Ireland v France
Sun 10 Mar: England v Italy
Sat 16 Mar: Italy v Ireland, Wales v England, France v Scotland
These are of note because
a) France have to go to England and Ireland
b) Two of Ireland's three away games are at Italy/Scotland
Point a) is crucial and in years when France have these fixtures (home and aways alternate year by year) France are far less likely to win the grand slam than when they host the tougher teams and travel to Italy and Scotland.....
There is no outstanding British team either, and this follows a period where we have had 4 Grand Slams in 5 years and 7 in 12 (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship)
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/grand-slamI am not sure you have any appetite to back a 7/10 shot, but the true odds of there being no Grand Slam this year is well under 1/2 in my opinion
In terms of the winners market
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/six-nations/winner- As explained above France do not appeal at 2-1 given the schedule. Every year they look the most talented team, but throw in an off day usually away.
- Only once in the last six sets of these fixtures (ie every other year) have France won the six nations. A crucial and overlooked point by current prices.
- Wales have injury problems and a rotten Autumn to contend with
- England are improving, but are a touch one dimensional to win five games on the trot, especially travelling to Dublin and Cardiff
- Italy and Scotland are genuine outsiders
Which leaves Ireland at 9/2
Ireland are between generations. O'Connell, O'Driscoll and the rest are passing the mantle on, though it appears O'Driscoll is fit again for this Six Nations
However, there is no outstanding team in my opinion
They have a favourable schedule (starting at Cardiff is a tough start, but I like it after that)
They have a superb kicker in Johnny Sexton, who is probably the Lions Test Kicker as it stands. He's 27, at his peak and will keep them in every game, especially in bad weather
They have a competitive pack both front row (Healy, Ross, Best/Strauss) and back row (Heaslip and O'Brien if fit)
and, structurally, years of Heineken Cup exposure has given many of their players from Munster and Leinster far more big match experience than former Irish teams used to have
This price, 9/2, is an interesting situation in a competition so open
Recommend £20 at 9/2 Ireland to win the Six Nations.
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