Tips by Tighty

[Ricardov83]

Jamie I am going in again

£20 Warburton 4-1 Ladbrokes

Markets now have, roughly

O'Driscoll 13/8
O'Connell 13/8
Warburton 4-1

On betfair Warburton is just under 3-1, though its a strange old illiquid market

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/british-and-irish-lions-tour/to-be-named-captain

As above I don't think Gatland picks BOD as captain, I still think Warburton is his man

Now have a max bet Warburton £30 at 11-4, £20 at 4-1

14 days til Squad announcement

He's now 4/7 with ladbrokes. Well done with this value spotting.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/ricky-walden-v-michael-holt/winner

£40 Holt to beat Walden at 13/8 Ladbrokes

Starts 10am tomorrow, best of 19

Walden has failed to get beyond the second round of 9 of the 13 ranking tournaments this year, and is definitely one of the better draws for a qualifier to get

Holt is a talent, albeit a touch inconsistent. Some evidence for this can be seen from his leading MAark Joyce in the final qualifier 7-1 but only winning 10-7. A touch streaky.

Has played at the Crucible before

[DungBeetle]

Agree with this Tighty.  Might support Holt on the spreads, although could blow up spectacularly if it goes wrong!

[Jamier-Host]

Agree with this Tighty.  Might support Holt on the spreads, although could blow up spectacularly if it goes wrong!

Hope you ducked this one on spreads  

What do you reckon to Stevens v Fu this morning?  Stevens has awesome record here despite being well off best form in recent years, while Fu has had a pretty decent season and been smashing in centuries for fun.  Feels like Stevens gets priced too much on past glories and we should be opposing him somehow...

EDIT - Meant general form as do realise he made semis last year

[tikay]

Tighty got me, too - I had another £25 for myself today, at 4/1.

Price contracted again and no one wants to lay him on Betfair currently...

Currently 1.41 to back on Betfair, & nobody else seems to still offer prices.

Hard for an ice-cream like me to know if the 1.41 reflects reality. The entire Market has around £12,000 matched, & I've no idea if that is a meaningful or significant sum for such a Market.

If a decision has already been made - & surely it has? - it would not be the sort of thing that would be easy to keep quiet, & plenty would know. But if it were Warburton, surely he would be 1.1 at best?

[Jamier-Host]

Tighty got me, too - I had another £25 for myself today, at 4/1.

Price contracted again and no one wants to lay him on Betfair currently...

Currently 1.41 to back on Betfair, & nobody else seems to still offer prices.

Hard for an ice-cream like me to know if the 1.41 reflects reality. The entire Market has around £12,000 matched, & I've no idea if that is a meaningful or significant sum for such a Market.

If a decision has already been made - & surely it has? - it would not be the sort of thing that would be easy to keep quiet, & plenty would know. But if it were Warburton, surely he would be 1.1 at best?

One of those where as long as you're happy not believing in superstition/fate/bokking you should be counting your money 

[TightEnd]

I don't know

I don't think it took much to move the market...

I haven't heard of a single leak though, and I have been looking, so I doubt its that genuine a market....

but I do think its is most likely to be him 

[TightEnd]

Northants second bet added £7.50 ew at 12-1 yesterday

NFL draft Paddy Power, to be selected in first round

+3.5 Wide Receivers, £25 @ 6/5.
+ 1.5 Quarterbacks, £12 @ 11/8
+ 0.5 Tight Ends, £50 @ 3/10.

I only got restricted on the QB bet.

[vegaslover]

Northants second bet added £7.50 ew at 12-1 yesterday

NFL draft Paddy Power, to be selected in first round

+3.5 Wide Receivers, £25 @ 6/5.
+ 1.5 Quarterbacks, £12 @ 11/8
+ 0.5 Tight Ends, £50 @ 3/10.

I only got restricted on the QB bet.

Like all these. Despite reports QBs not too good this year, part of which is based on RG3 & Luck being sooo good last year, several teams need QB reinforcements

[DungBeetle]

"Hope you ducked this one on spreads"

Only just dared to check my balance on the laptop!  Oh well, live and learn.

[LeKnave]

+ 0.5 Tight Ends, £50 @ 3/10

gahhh didn't see this in time, absolute knock in.  been smashed to 1/7 now.  nice coup tighty.

[TheDazzler]

What day/time is this draft thingie?
I've gone both barrels. All my PP account (~E200) spunked over the 3 bets.
In Mr Tightend we trust!

P.s. no probs if it loses.

[TightEnd]

starts 1am tonight

the tightend bet at 1/3 is the biggest certainty on this board ever

the qb is growing in confidence. all the suggestions are that there are 3-4 teams looking at trading back into the back end of the first round for a qb. one of the reasons for this is under the new cba, 1st round rookie contracts are 5 yrs, 2nd round 4...so if you get a qb there you have an extra year (qbs take time to develop, more than many other positions) of him under contract before the big deal or free agency

so nassib and barkley could go picks 26-32 to cleveland, buffalo, jets etc if they can find a trading partner

the wr bet is as priced, more 50-50%. a bit less likely if people are trading to get qbs

if we don't get 2 out of 3 up here I give up (until tomorrow)

[Dubai]

Tighty thoughts on number of running backs in first round. I know nothing but ~80% of mock drafts have Eddie Lacey goin in round 1, and yet bookies varying odds but all around 8/11 etc

[Dubai]

For over 0.5 RBs that is