Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Volta ao Algarve starts tomorrow. Only a 4 day race this year.

Cavendish starts, looking for a couple of sprint stage wins, should be a walk in the park. His team mate Tony Martin is odds on to win overall. A final stage 35 km TT, should seal victory for him.

Click to see full-size image.

Tony Martin smashes the TT, over 1 minute ahead of the next rider & takes the GC. OPQS raking up WorldTour points early.

[Tonji]

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Saturday 23rd Feb.

The first of the Flanders classic of the season. Riders return from Oman & Portugal to the wind, rain & occasional snow of Belgium. A race for the hard men of the peloton.

Leaves Ghent & some 5 hours later returns to Ghent, with plenty of bodies left in the gutters on the way.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

I'll do a preview of some of the contenders of this race, but also ones who will be in frame over the coming weeks.

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Lars Boom. (Blanco). The Dutch cyclo-cross champion for many year. Blanco's strong start to the year continued with Boom, a stage winner a few days ago at Haut Var-matin, so early season form is good. His race programme will see him ride nearly all the Spring classics, with the prime ambition of Paris-Roubaix in April.

Age 27 he’s in his prime now to get some big results. I’d expect him to be in the final group with 20km to go. Top 5 finish if he does not crash! (that’s him in the gutter in the previous post).

[Tonji]

Sep Vanmarcke. Boom’s team mate on the Blanco squad. A fierce attacking rider on his day he won Omloop last year out sprinting Tom Boonen. Form is unknown with an average performance in the Agarve. But he’s Belgian & looking to defend his title.

A cool short video of Vanmarcke last year

[vegaslover]

Awesome reports for the last few days, cheers Tonji.

Have you spotted any longer range value?, most of the form boys still doing it this season with the exception of Wiggo.

[Tonji]

Awesome reports for the last few days, cheers Tonji.

Have you spotted any longer range value?, most of the form boys still doing it this season with the exception of Wiggo.

Thanks vegas.

Value long range? Giro & TDF etc I assume you mean.

Personally I rarely have a long range ante post bet, but I have some exceptions (more later).

Form & injury can change expectations radically. Add in the fact that teams never confirm selections til close to race day. I also think the betting firms will often price up on previous results, with form a secondary consideration. I prefer to have more info than the bookies & select bets late on.

Re Wiggo, I don't read anything into his current form. His race programme in April will be the guide to his chance in the Giro.

[Tonji]

Lotto-Belisol have a strong team packed with Belgians. Jurgen Roelandts will be the likely leader on the road. Recent form is good with a stage win at Tour Méditerranéen. Three previous appearances in Omloop, with a best of 9th.  Last year was disrupted by injuries, but at 27 he now has the maturity to breakthrough with some major results.

Interviews are positive.
“I am very motivated, I have trained and I've done everything to be good,” … "There are few opportunities in the spring, so I hope that everything will now fall in place. If I don't have a bad day or bad luck, I will be there in the final.”

[Tonji]

Another rider in form is the 31 year old Italian Filippo Pozzato. Leader of the all Italian team Lampre. Certainly experienced with 5 visits to Omloop, & a best of 6th place. Forecast for race day is 2 degrees. Italians stereotypically hate the cold, let alone ones who wear bandannas 

[Tonji]

Omloop will be the first high profile race for the new South African Pro Continental Team MTN Qhubeka.

A team with a difference. Part of the aim is a charitable project in Africa, bikes for kids.

[Tonji]

The in form BMC team have selected a strong line up, with options for leaders.

A previous winner here, the experienced Thor Hushovd is returning after a injury hit 2012. Reports seem to indicate he may have a watching brief, & if he has the legs be given the green light for the win. He has his sights more firmly set on Paris-Roubaix later in April.

My favourite rider at the moment is Taylor Phinney. Still only 22, but big things expected of him. He’ll likely be asked to chase down breaks, but if can find himself in the final selection a top three is possible.

Likely leader will be the Belgian Greg Van Avermaet. An impressive 2012, with a top six in Flanders, Het Nieuwsblad, the Strada Bianche and Brabantse Pijl. He looked strong in Qatar & Oman. Due a big win this season imo.

[Tonji]

The latest from Vanmarcke:

“I hope so. My most important goals are Harelbeke, Flanders and Roubaix and hopefully everyone will be in a good condition for Omloop [Het Nieuwsblad]. I feel like I’m in good shape, but I don’t know if I’m good enough to go for the win there. I think I will be able to fight for the win. I will be good enough for that, but I don’t know if I’ll be good enough for the win. It will depend on how you are on the day. We’ll see.”

[Tonji]

Update on the weather for Saturday is 2 degrees, with a -5 wind chill. With a NE wind, meaning heading back to Ghent will be a head wind making the chances of breakaways succeeding less likely.

The Belgian OPQS team is arguably the strongest. With the classics legend Boonen being not 100% the leader option is likely to be with Niki Terpstra. Although I think the form rider is Zdenek Stybar, a good outside bet for a podium.

Here is OPQS team on a recon of the course. A big deal for Belgium TV!

[Tonji]

Sunday sees the Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne & the first showdown between Cavendish & Greipel.

Unibet seem to be the only bookie offering a market:

Cav 2.85
Greipel 3.25

Weather predictions are cold with a chance of snow! Greipel & his lead-out train may have the edge this early in the season.

Live on Eurosport2 at 2.15

[craigbetts]

Tonji, thank you for all your posts, I am loving cycling even more and enjoying your insights.

Here for the ride 

[Tonji]

Tonji, thank you for all your posts, I am loving cycling even more and enjoying your insights.

Here for the ride 

Cheers Craig

I think this season may just be the best!

Friends in Belgium are buzzing with the Omloop & KBK weekend ahead.

Final thoughts on Omloop bets later today. Overslept this morning