Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Sky riders talking about the Classics

[Tonji]

7th April. Paris - Roubaix "Hell of the North"

The oldest & toughest of bike races.



Although Cancellara will probably win. My picks are Phinney & Stannard, two of the toughest young guns.

[Tonji]

Back from 2 weeks in Northern Europe, business & bikes!

[Tonji]

Managed to miss the Tour of Flanders, but watched sections of Paris-Roubaix in Arenberg, & the rest in a local bar. Tremendous atmosphere, plenty of Brits made the trip over.

[Tonji]

Such an epic race, even those left struggling seem heroic!

[Tonji]

Sunday sees the start of the Ardennes classics with the Amstel Gold Race.

Been a bit out of the loop, but Sagan won again during the week, with Gilbert showing much improved form. Parcours should suit Gerrans, he could do well if his team back him fully & not split their options.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner

[Tonji]

Sunday sees the start of the Ardennes classics with the Amstel Gold Race.

Been a bit out of the loop, but Sagan won again during the week, with Gilbert showing much improved form. Parcours should suit Gerrans, he could do well if his team back him fully & not split their options.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner

Some value with skybet going top 4, 1/4 odds.

[Tonji]

Was pleased that Sep Vanmarcke had such a great ride in PR after bearly being able to walk a few weeks earlier after a nasty crash. A genuine guy.

[Tonji]

Amstel Gold Race live on Eurosport at 1.10pm.

Currently 7 escapees with an 11 minute gap to the peloton.

[Tonji]

Giro del Trentino starts tomorrow. A 4 day race with 5 stages, includes a team time trial on day one.

Wiggins using this as a build up to the Giro, & is priced too short. His form is reported good in training, but full race shape? I have my doubts. The Sky team looks inexperienced, no Uran, Henao or Kiryienka (on the Giro team), they race in the Ardennes this week.

Will be backing Nibali at 7/2, hoping he's recovered from the cold picked up at Milan-Sanremo. Also the Astana team looks stronger than Sky, & can gain time in the TTT.

Also small EW on Mauro Santambrogio at 28/1, who had a great Tirreno-Adriatico.

[cheapwetsuit]

Hey Tonji. I've been waiting the whole weekend for the bookies to put prices up for the Giro del Trentino, and now that I've seen them, I'm not that impressed.

I agree with everything you've said in your analysis. Wiggins is priced too short, and although the nature of the climbs (long and gradual) will suit his style, I think he is drastically short of team support here, and will struggle not to get dropped by stronger climbers (in my opinion), like Scarponi and Nibali, on the last two days. Nibali, for one, has impressed me so far this year, and I have him as the favourite, especially given his intention to focus on the Giro d'Italia (according to the press). Remember that Scarponi won the Giro the same year that he won at Trentino!

Given that there is not much value in the three favourites, I was hoping I might find a dark horse to upset the podium. At 28/1, I think Santambrogio is a great E/W call. If you look at the sort of riders he was holding his own against in the Tirreno-Adriatico (with a similar sort of parcours to Trentino), it would be hard not to call him the fourth favourite. Rolland is a stayer rather than an attacker, and Pozzovivo (although gifted) is priced in on last year's (weaker field) honours.

I was hoping that I might find some other diamonds in the rough, but I honestly don't know the other teams that well. I might have a cheeky bet on one of the Caja Rural boys (Txurukka or Fraile) to sneak one of the final mountain stages, as they do love attacking.

Along with the Nibali and Santambrogio bets, I also couldn't resist having £5 on BMC in tomorrow's TTT at 11/2 (Bet365). I do love betting against Sky.

I look forward to your analysis of the Fleche Wallone. My early E/W picks include Betancur and Martin, although I will look at the field in more detail tomorrow. I see SkyBet are paying 4 places.

[Tonji]

Hi cws,

Thanks for taking some time to air your thoughts, some excellent insights, keep em coming.

Bit pushed for time, but agree re TTT betting against Sky.

Not sure I'll have much free time before Fleche, but also like Martin, but in LBL, I think I have 40/1 EW from a few weeks back.

[Tonji]

La Fleche Wallone

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/la-fleche-wallone/winner

Sagan cramped up on sunday in Amstel, over raced in recent weeks?

Contador, not really properly prepared for this week, 2nd leader in team behind Kreuzinger with a watching brief imo.

Gilbert, certainly back in shape this week. His crash in the Amstel & chase back probably blunted his finish.

Valverde also in excellent shape. Prone to mistakes early in a race. Like his team mate Quintana either here or on sunday at Leige-Baston-Leige.

Sky's Henao & Porte should be in with a chance.

As cws said skybet top 4 paid must be value there.

Off out, more later.

[Tonji]

Notice Rodriguez is listed as starting for Katusha. I had thought he was out due to his crash on sunday. If fully fit I would expect him to be joint favourite, but odds of 5-7/1 reflect the doubts.

Katusha's Giampaolo Caruso has a better chance of a good finish. 11th in Amstel with some good results this year. 150/1 looks attractive.

[Tonji]

A rider under the radar this season has been Orica Green Edge's Michael Albasini. With Gerrans resting up for LBL after a very good podium at Amstel. Albasini looks to be the sole leader, with Pieter Weening playing a similar attacking role he preformed at Amstel, allowing Albasini to preserve energy until the final climb. He has an impressive record here, never out of the top 11 in the past five editions & 2nd last year. Season form is patchy, but has a win in stage 4 at Paris-Nice. This will be one of his & the teams main ambitions for the season. Have taken 22/1 EW with PP.