Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

https://audioboo.fm/channel/humansinventcycling

Well worth bookmarking this podcast. Relaxed chat, great stories from the past, full of knowledgeable insight into whats happening in Pro Cycling.

[cheapwetsuit]

Nothing worthwhile to report regarding the prices for the time-trial stage at the Tour de San Luis. BMU are being positively miserly with their odds, and are only paying out on two places (as are LadJokes). BillyHills aren't even bothering with a place market, and PP seem to be giving it a miss altogether. Looks like these odds compilers have wisened to the nuances of the cycling game. Well, maybe not LadJokes so much, as they are quoting a price of 13/2 for Leandro Messineo to win the stage ... even though he abandoned the race after crashing on day one.

[Tonji]

Nothing worthwhile to report regarding the prices for the time-trial stage at the Tour de San Luis. BMU are being positively miserly with their odds, and are only paying out on two places (as are LadJokes). BillyHills aren't even bothering with a place market, and PP seem to be giving it a miss altogether. Looks like these odds compilers have wisened to the nuances of the cycling game. Well, maybe not LadJokes so much, as they are quoting a price of 13/2 for Leandro Messineo to win the stage ... even though he abandoned the race after crashing on day one.

I noticed Phinney got beat in the ITT, at evens/odds on. What price was Malori?

[cheapwetsuit]

If I remember correctly, he was 5/1 for a split second at WH, but settled into 14/5 generally. Would have suggested him, but he has always let me down in the past. Does like this kind of flat TT stage though. Still, for only two places, I couldn't get myself to pull the trigger. Given that there was only 2 seconds in it, I'm not feeling awful about my decision. Would have taken 4/1 with 3 places, but WH was win only (not that I have an account with them anyhow).

Glad to say that I've learned plenty about form from these two early stage races. If Quintana does decide to do the Giro, he should win it, but he'll have plenty of competition from Porte, Evans and perhaps even Ulissi.

[Tonji]

Start of the hard men races with Omloop Het Nieuwsblad on Saturday.



Boonen on form & looking ftw.

[cheapwetsuit]

I'll definitely be looking to oppose the favourites in this one. Hopefully there'll be some juicy each-way prizes for a potential banzai coup. Also, just read this article which makes Boonen sound more indifferent than confident in my opinion:

http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/boonen_quietly_confident_ahead_of_the_omloop_het_nieuwsblad/

[Tonji]

I'll definitely be looking to oppose the favourites in this one. Hopefully there'll be some juicy each-way prizes for a potential banzai coup. Also, just read this article which makes Boonen sound more indifferent than confident in my opinion:

http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/boonen_quietly_confident_ahead_of_the_omloop_het_nieuwsblad/

Interesting, OPQS is packed with potential winners. Stybar & Terpstra may be?

[cheapwetsuit]

Don't think you're far wrong there, although Terpstra is actually my pick for the Paris-Roubaix. OPQS has a very strong team, and know this race inside-out. Of course, this means that they'll make up the majority of the favourites ... and therefore I'll be looking elsewhere for value. Don't want to say who I fancy before I've seen some prices, because actually there are plenty who have a chance, but I'll only be looking upwards of 20/1 for what is essentially a cobblestone lottery. Also, OPQS might have 6 riders who can win the race, but only one can do so, meaning there are still two other places on the podium up for grabs ... likely to be filled by riders from the other teams. The bookies are getting a lot better (ie. more risk averse) at pricing up these classics, so I always get excited looking at the odds for the first time and seeing if they've missed a trick. Have been rather disappointed lately. Fingers crossed.

[Tonji]

World Track Championship tonight, BBC online or red button, for insomniacs, starts 23.50.

[vegaslover]

Just read on bbc about the rain on the track, hope they sort it, wouldn't want it causing any crashes

[Tonji]

Don't think you're far wrong there, although Terpstra is actually my pick for the Paris-Roubaix. OPQS has a very strong team, and know this race inside-out. Of course, this means that they'll make up the majority of the favourites ... and therefore I'll be looking elsewhere for value. Don't want to say who I fancy before I've seen some prices, because actually there are plenty who have a chance, but I'll only be looking upwards of 20/1 for what is essentially a cobblestone lottery. Also, OPQS might have 6 riders who can win the race, but only one can do so, meaning there are still two other places on the podium up for grabs ... likely to be filled by riders from the other teams. The bookies are getting a lot better (ie. more risk averse) at pricing up these classics, so I always get excited looking at the odds for the first time and seeing if they've missed a trick. Have been rather disappointed lately. Fingers crossed.

Skybet have priced it up.

[Tonji]

pm sent cws

[cheapwetsuit]

You have pm.

[cheapwetsuit]

Thanks for the heads up, Tonji. Unfortunately, joy quickly turned to sorrow when I saw the prices on offer. The compilers are getting very cagey when it comes to pricing up the cycling these days. No more 150/1 picks in the future, I fear.

For anyone looking for a spot of value, there is very little to be had. Heinrich Haussler @ 22/1 comes the closest for me. He has a sparkling record in the Omloop het Nieuwsblad (4th - 2012, 2nd - 2010) ... and in fact most of the Classics. He has a very experienced team-mate in Sylvain Chavanel, who is also a bit of a Classics specialist. His team, IAM Cycling, is motivated to win by the recent death of one of its riders (Kristof Goddaert) in training. All in all, a decent each-way bet.

But I don't think he will win. My pick would be one of Zdenek Stybar or Jurgen Roelandts, but at 10/1 and 15/2 respectively, they are far from value propositions. I might end up sticking a tenner on Roelandts, because he is in incredible form right now, and I would be surprised if he didn't podium. Shocked actually. Unfortunately, the cobbles of Belgium can end a rider's race quicker than you can say Ronde van Vlaanderen, so I won't be breaking the bank on this one. And Tom Boonen is a deserved favourite on paper (although favourites seldom win here).

Hopefully, Mr. Power will come along tomorrow and give me something to work with.

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/omloop-het-nieuwsblad/winner

more prices