Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[cheapwetsuit]

Cracking ride there from Wiggo. Beating Tony Martin by 26sec. But why bother shaving your legs when you've got a beard like that?

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

[Tonji]

Missed this earlier in the year



chuckled at the poor young Colombian rider getting stick for nearly falling off in the peloton.

[Tonji]

http://www.mundialciclismoponferrada.com/descargas/categoria18/categoria20/4988905.pdf

Men's RR selections confirmed.

Plenty of debate in Spain on how tough or not the course is. The U23 this afternoon should give a decent pointer.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/world-championships/u23-road-race/winner

Been steered every which way, & ended with Power, Zepuntke, Kung, Tuens & Cort Nielson.

[Tonji]

Women's RR on Saturday. Voss an obvious winner. But taken a couple of small ew at Skuy (top 4) on Evelyn Stevens & Pauline Ferrand-Prevot, both in fine form.

Nice job Pauline  classy rider now added the Worlds road to National TT & Mountain & Cross titles.

Turned my Worlds betting around @ 33/1 winner.

[Tonji]

World Men's Road Race.

Unpredictable & open race. A lot depends on how hard & how early the pace is picked up. Weather forecast shows some chance of rain late afternoon making the descents trickier.

I do actually like the chances of Australia & Gerrans, a strong favourite. But that's the problem, he'll be heavily marked & how does Australia try & control a race in the later stages.
 
Where my money lies, all ew.

Got an early position on Greg Van Avermaet @ 22/1, now been backed in to 14/1. Happy with that & his form, but concerned Belgium have too many chiefs.

Despite reservations on the French teams, I've gone with Nacer Bouhanni. Fastest sprinter in the field if it comes down to a bunch sprint, & he shown this season he can hang on on the climbs, not bad in the wet if it comes to it. I have 40/1, but PP have 50/1 (paying top 5).

Bit left field, Michael Albasini, Swiss rider could get away while the favourites watch each other. Has purple patches, remember Tour de Romandie, & won his last race Tre Valli Varesine. 100/1 generally around, choral still at 150/1.

Poland for the first time have a full 9 man team. Michal Kwiatkowski will be the sole leader. Has the ability to appear at the final stages of big races & be in the mix for the win. His performances in the Ardennes classics & recent strong showing at the Tour of Britain give me some confidence this race could be his. Not sure why his price has drifted through the week, but 20/1 generally available.

Finally why do I have a nagging feeling I should be betting Sagan? Was his roll around Spain in the Vuelta a ploy to lull everyone into thinking his form is way off. At around 10/1 everyone sure will look stupid if he nails it on Sunday on a parcours that's absolutely made for him. Earlier in the year he would have been joint favourite with Gerrans.

Whats everyone's thoughts?

[Tonji]

Not fully clear who Italy will be riding for, Nibali I assume. But Aru will surely still have some decent form coming out of the Vuelta. Price 200/1  He has no track record over long one day races, but has pretty good strength & instinct on this sort of finish if still involved at the final.

[cheapwetsuit]

Looking forward to this tomorrow (actually later today!), but it really is the equivalent of a cavalry charge. I'm liking the chances of pure sprinters with a little climbing ability, and astute cyclists who know the best time to attack the peloton. Like Tonji, I have gone for Nacer Bouhanni anywhere between 40/1 and 50/1, Kristoff somewhere around 18/1, and Degenkolb to recoup my costs. Not on GvA (though probably should be), and Trentin isn't riding.

My banzais are Bozic, Kennaugh, Hansen, Impey, D. Martin, LL Sanchez, Stybar, A. Yates, Clarke, Bennati (all on the machine). A lot of bases covered there, so take your pick. Just think that the favourites will all be well covered, and this looks like a parcours where it will be really hard to get away. Could take a big gamble by a complete unknown. If I had to pick only one rider today, it would be Lars Boom. I think this layout suits his style perfectly ... but alas, he is not riding.

Serious aftertiming here, but I actually backed Rui Costa last year at 150/1. Been brought back down to earth since then, but I remember that I backed at least 8 riders last year as well. Not as easy as picking a grand tour stage then.

PS. Well done Tonji on picking Prevost in the Ladies RR. Not my forte unfortunately, but I missed your post, so I didn't have an interest. 33/1 is not a bad result at all. You've still got it.

PPS. I quite like Kristoff for this. More so than Gerrans or Sagan ... and definitely Valverde.

[Tonji]

Good luck cws, here's hoping one of us can snaffle a winner.

Wet start.



Let's hope they all get round safely.

[Tonji]

The Italians have taken over at the front of the bunch. Nibali crashed earlier, hoping Aru is up for this.

[Tonji]

Albasini in a counter attack, too early I think.

[Tonji]

20km to go plenty of big names still there, still wide open race.

[Tonji]

Michal whoopp!

[Tonji]

Michal whoopp!

[Tonji]

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Il Lombardia on Sunday.

Giro route is announced on Monday.