Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[TommyPlus]

So much for my weather report. It's raining at the start.

haha,the crazier the weather the more chance of a random result though

Wind is howling as well. Exciting.

[Steveswift]

Hi guys I find myself with a spare hour. Where can I watch or follow some of this? Tv or online.  Cheers

Steve

[TommyPlus]

Hey, sorry I missed you Steve. Most cycling is shown on Eurosport in the UK and Europe and if not there are always plenty of live streams kicking about.
Sporza are an Italian station streaming straight to YouTube these days.
Next time we have a decent race I'll put up a link(if allowed).

[Supernova]

Saw the highlights of  Kurrne - Brussels- Kurne on Eurosport last night.
Bit of a suprise that it wasnt a sprint finish. 
I really enjoy the spring classics on Eurosport. Always try and watch them live.

[TommyPlus]

We've got a feast of one day classics on the horizon, Le Samyn on Wednesday and Strade Bianchi on Saturday.
I'll try and do a decent write up for Strade when I get an hour or so during the week so keep your eyes peeled.
A minuscule .5pt profit from Kuurne but we'll take it.

[Tonji]

Wonderful race if the sky is blue, a mudfest if any rain is about. I'll be tuning in.

[nellberg]

Wonderful race if the sky is blue, a mudfest if any rain is about. I'll be tuning in.

let's hope for rain then :-) I prefer it when they have to battle the elements also

[Tonji]

Very good interview with Tiesj Benoot in this weeks Cycling podcast. Smart lad.

http://thecyclingpodcast.com/podcast/7-cometh-the-cobbles

[Tonji]

Wonderful race if the sky is blue, a mudfest if any rain is about. I'll be tuning in.

let's hope for rain then :-) I prefer it when they have to battle the elements also

Who has the edge GVA, already shown he is in world class form this season. or Stybar, superb last year, cyclo-cross world champ, but not shown much yet this year.

[Tonji]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/35719795

Laura Trott, 2 Olympic golds, & now her 6th Worlds jersey. Only 23 

[TommyPlus]

Anyone found prices for Strade?

[TommyPlus]

Le Strade Bianche 176.1 Km March 5th

Click to see full-size image.

The race literally translated as "The White Roads" is so called because around 1/4 of the race is raced on the white dirt roads of Siena in Italy.

Click to see full-size image.

The grey areas in the profile are the dirt roads, 9 sections, with distances range from 0.8kms to 11.9kms.
Riding road bikes on dirt roads is usually a recipe for disaster, expect punctures and crashes galore and the team mechanics can be expected to earn their salaries in this race.
Short sharp climbs puncture the entire route and it's a race where decisive action can happen at any moment.
The race has only existed since 2007 but has already become a fans favourite due to the unpredictability of the race.

Previous Winners

2015 Zdenek Stybar Cze
2014 Michael Kwiatkowski Pol
2013 Moreno Moser Ita
2012 Fabian Cancellara Swi
2011 Phillipe Gilbert Bel
2010 Maxime Iglinsky Kaz
2009 Thomas Lovkvist Swe
2008 Fabian Cancellara Swi
2007 Alexandr Kolobnev Rus

A delightful mix from a betting point of view, some 4/1 fav types mixed in with 150/1+ probable or proven dopers, last couple of years the winners have come from the second tier of the betting 10/1 - 20/1 so basically there is no trend to follow and you'll pay your money and take your chance. Perfect.

The Weather

If the dirt roads and endless climbing weren't tough enough then this...

Click to see full-size image.

... is the icing on the cake. Driving rain will cause utter havoc and possible devastation amongst the peloton.
Expect riders to come home at long long intervals or more likely in the back of the team car.

Leading contenders

Although the race has been shortened by 25kms, the terrain and weather forecast dictates that we should be looking at real strongmen. There is a 16% ramp in the last two KMs but I envisage such a small leading group(possibly a soloist) that climbing prowess goes out of the window in favour of pure strength.

Zdenek Stybar

Last year's winner, former cyclocross world champion, toothless wattage producing machine and all round hard bastard, Stybar will be praying for conditions to be as testing as possible. He excels in rain and mud and simply ticks all the boxes required for this race. A worthy favourite.  6/1

Greg Van Avermaet

Former nearly man turned ruthless assassin? Always an incredibly difficult rider to drop in one day races, he seemed to find a way to bollocks up the sprint on numerous occasions. He had 16 top ten finishes in so called one day classics until he finally converted in Omloop last weekend. Does it herald a new dawn in his career? At 6/1 I'm not prepared to risk my cash in finding out. Probably the most rock solid place bet but for win purposes I'm happy to look elsewhere.

Peter Sagan

The World Champion sedetermined to make proud the rainbow stripes, a true old fashioned(highly skilled but fairly crazy) rider, he possesses all the attributes required as long as he can channel them correctly. I feel that he wants to do some notable things whilst World Champion and he can be relied on to illuminate almost every race he is in. Is that the best tactic to win Strade Bianche? No, not really. If you disagree he's a 8/1 shot.

Fabian Cancellara

Can Spartacus summon up one last season of magic? Not the best tactically(heresy!) he has long relied on shocking brute power to blast away the best riders of his generation. His motor(geddit?) might not be quite what it used to be, does he have the tactical nous to compensate? It's a quandary. In his favour is the fact his team at Trek is stronger than it has ever been so he won't be the only Trek rider left in the lead group at the half way point like so many times in the past. 8/1

Vincenzo Nibali

Who can forget stage 5 of the 2014 Tour De France. Nibali attacked early on the way to Arenberg and basically won the race in the rain on the cobbles. The man who helped increased the gap and eventually won the stage that day was Lars Boom of Team Belkin, he is now a teammate of Nibali at Astana but Boom will not be present due to dodgy circumstances involving an inhaler and injury.
Nibali's season goal is the Tour D'Italia and he maybe just off his peak this weekend. 9/1

Other possibles
A list as long as my arm, including Kwiatkowski, Vakoc, Benoot, Valverde plus at least a dozen more.

Summary
Time to bet like men. Zdenek Stybar was made for this race, for these conditions and for my bank balance.
Paddy are the only firm priced up and maybe we can nick an extra point somewhere during the day.

Recommend 5pts on Zdenek Stybar at 6/1 or better

[Tonji]

Excellent write up Tommy, thanks.

Plenty to think about, I'm still wary on Stybar's form. GVA is flying right now.

For now I think a small bet on Vakoc, on the basis of form, & the hope Ettix get him in a late break while the GVA, Stybar, Cancellara & Co mark each other.

Good luck.

[TommyPlus]

Excellent write up Tommy, thanks.

Plenty to think about, I'm still wary on Stybar's form. GVA is flying right now.

For now I think a small bet on Vakoc, on the basis of form, & the hope Ettix get him in a late break while the GVA, Stybar, Cancellara & Co mark each other.

Good luck.

I like the thought process pal. I just feel if the weather is as anticipated then there won't be too many tactics from each teams second and third string riders, expecting to see a group of less than 15 from about 50kms from home. Rain, wind and dirt roads doesn't usually equate to a group of 50 sticking together for the majority of the race.
Literally anything can happen and whilst I expect Stybar to be right in the thick of it, it makes sense to throw a couple of darts on some huge prices riders as history proves this race can have a surprising winner.

[Tonji]

Excellent write up Tommy, thanks.

Plenty to think about, I'm still wary on Stybar's form. GVA is flying right now.

For now I think a small bet on Vakoc, on the basis of form, & the hope Ettix get him in a late break while the GVA, Stybar, Cancellara & Co mark each other.

Good luck.

I like the thought process pal. I just feel if the weather is as anticipated then there won't be too many tactics from each teams second and third string riders, expecting to see a group of less than 15 from about 50kms from home. Rain, wind and dirt roads doesn't usually equate to a group of 50 sticking together for the majority of the race.
Literally anything can happen and whilst I expect Stybar to be right in the thick of it, it makes sense to throw a couple of darts on some huge prices riders as history proves this race can have a surprising winner.

True, all crystal ball stuff really, race conditions in last 50km or so is crucial. My shortlist of possible winners is 12. The best two riders in the field, GVA & Stybar are 3 star (out of 5) only for me, mainly because rain could make it a lottery.