Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

‏@nedboulting
Good luck to all my commentator colleagues working on the #StradeBianche today.

"An attack by...someone....brown.."

[nellberg]

‏@nedboulting
Good luck to all my commentator colleagues working on the #StradeBianche today.

"An attack by...someone....brown.."

any online stream for the race?

[Tonji]

http://www.cyclinghub.tv/livestream

normally on here, around 12.30 ish.

[nellberg]

http://www.cyclinghub.tv/livestream

normally on here, around 12.30 ish.

cheers, might be able to sneak half an hour in before rugby

[Tonji]

Lizzie Armitstead is on fire this season

[TommyPlus]

Chaos already, lead group of around 35, it's raining and blowing a gale.

[Tonji]

Not looking as bad as expected, dry at the moment with 50 km to go

[TommyPlus]

Yes my bad, a sharp shower came down but if anything it's made the roads a little more compact and easier to ride.

[TommyPlus]

1. Cancellara
2. Stybar
3. Brambilla
4. Sagan

Quality from Spartacus, Stybar had every chance, a dream ride for basically the last 10kms. Had to do no work as his teammate was away up the road but he still couldn't overhaul Cancellara in the downhill sprint. No complaints from me.

[Tonji]

unlucky Tommy. Pretty good race, enjoyed it.

[TommyPlus]

Click to see full-size image.

The race for the sun is a week long stage race with a little of everything.

Prologue

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Stage 1

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Stage 2

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Stage 3

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Stage 4

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Stage 5

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Stage 6

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Stage 7

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Previous Winners

2015   PORTE Richie   
2014   BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto   
2013   PORTE Richie   
2012   WIGGINS Bradley   
2011   MARTIN Tony   
2010   CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto   
2009   SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon   
2008   REBELLIN Davide   
2007   CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto   
2006   LANDIS Floyd

A grand tour compressed into 8 days. Race against the clock for the power men? Yup. Flat finishes to excite the sprinters? Check. Classic type stages for the puncheurs? You bet. Mountain top finish to seperate the men from the boys? Of course, what do you take us for?

Outright winner contenders

Alberto Contador
7 time grand tour winner(officially) and dual winner of this race. His three Tour de France wins(one wiped out by a doping ban) have all been preceded by racing here where he finished 1st, 4th and 1st. His first visit to this race for 6 years as he tries to end his career with another TDF victory.

Geraint Thomas
Sky's joker in the pack. A beautiful all round cyclist, capable on almost any stage. This makes him dangerous in a race like this. Will hope to take time in the prologue and hilly stages before trying to defend on the mountain top finishes.

Tom Dumoulin
Last season's breakout performer, showed incredible courage in the Vuelta, leading the race with around 50kms of real racing left before he finally cracked under sustained Astana attacks. A supremely strong time trialler, he would perhaps have preferred a longer TT. Don't underestimate.

Richie Porte
Another dual winner, Richie is into his first season with BMC and his first taste of being the head honcho. Porte has spoken of peaking for certain races this season and has played down his chances in this race as "a chance to get more race days in the legs". His previous wins have come when Sky allowed him to lead the team in thanks for his continued support of Froome in the TDF. May not be as motivated this time around.

Romain Bardet
The next, next, next, next, next, next big French hope. Will probably lose time in the prologue, hang around in the hilly stages then be left with a fair sized deficit to make up in the mountains. Love watching him race but would prefer more mountain kms and may well have too much to do.

Other contenders
As previous winners have shown, it's possible for TTers, puncheurs or mountain men to win this race, we can't rule many out barring the sprinters so riders like Gallopin, Rui Costa, Spilak, Kelderman + 30 others have chances.

Bets
Not a race for getting too heavily involved in punting wise but being the degenerate I am I just can't resist.
I like the look of a couple of guys at bigger prices who can time trial well and also climb a bit.
Simon Spilak from Katusha is a very good rider who can tt and climb very well when in form. A decent price to find out.
Same goes for LottoNL-Jumbo's Wilco Kelderman, a second tier grand tour rider, he can be competitive in a race like this.

Recommendation
1 pt ew Simon Spilak 22/1 Paddy Power
1 pt ew Wilco Kelderman 33/1 Will Hill

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/cycling/paris-nice/winner

If you made it this far thanks for reading and of course good luck.

[TommyPlus]

Prologue bets

Had a peruse of the prologue, as I like to look into the weather factor on short courses as a second here and there can make all the difference.
I think early starters have a small advantage with regards to the wind so will have a couple of bets.
.5pts ew Wilco Kelderman 18/1 PP
.5pts ew Jerome Coppel 33/1 PP

[Tonji]

Thanks Tommy, I'm certainly behind Spilak, he's a profitable rider for me.

[Tonji]

Prologue bets

Had a peruse of the prologue, as I like to look into the weather factor on short courses as a second here and there can make all the difference.
I think early starters have a small advantage with regards to the wind so will have a couple of bets.
.5pts ew Wilco Kelderman 18/1 PP
.5pts ew Jerome Coppel 33/1 PP

rain later, early starters could have best of it. Team LottoNL - Jumbo have Jos van Emden with an early start, could surprise Dumoulin.

[TommyPlus]

Turns out the late starters had the best of it as the rain failed to materialise and the wind shifted to help.
Shame as Coppel and Kelderman were top two for a good while and just a few drops of rain would have sown up the win.
Onwards and upwards

Paris - Nice Stage 1
A tricky stage to call as the profile suggest one for the out and out quicks but there are a couple of sections of sterrato(dirt roads) close enough to the end and a short climb very close. Kittel although in form could easily be dropped, Griepel is recovering from injury so I'll go for two riders who should be able to handle the roads easily.

A Kristoff 2pt win 5/1 PP
A Demare .5pt EW 25/1 Various