Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[TommyPlus]

It's snowing! Today could get very messy. Think a few long shots could be a decent play today.

[TommyPlus]

Stage 1 results

1. A Demare
2. B Swift
3. N Bouhanni

Click to see full-size image.

Finally found a winner in the shape of Demare. Pretty happy with how the stage went in so far as Kittel was dropped on the climb and Griepel wasn't in good enough shape to try and contest the sprint.
Kristoff and his horrible Katusha team were all caught out when a split in the peloton formed with 50kms to go, just as they were making contact again he had a mechanical and it was game over.

In other news Bouhanni seems to be coming to the boil quite nicely with regards to the ante post Milan San Remo bet I've placed. Third yesterday and probably should have won but he let Demare take the advantage then found trouble in running. Promising signs however.

Stage 2 today looks likely to be a genuine bunch sprint with the finale a lot flatter and a more open road than yesterday. Kittel is favourite at around 11/10, with doubts surrounding Griepel he seems a worthy favourite. I'm not going to have a bet today. I'll watch the last 20kms but I'll be watching the start of the T20 cricket World Cup all evening.

Thanks for reading

[Tonji]

well done Tommy 

[nellberg]

Well done Tommy, 1st winner of many!

[TommyPlus]

Stage 2 results

1. M Matthews
2. N Bonifazio
3. N Bouhanni

Bouhanni cements his title of biggest tosser in the peloton by doing this...

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Matthews came up the inside to win the race and Bouhanni edged him almost into the barriers. Although in my opinion the man coming from behind(ooh err) should challenge on the outside this was pretty dangerous and Bouhanni was disqualified and placed third. It's looks awful but Matthews isn't blameless in this.
Hopefully Bouhanni gets his revenge in Milan San Remo!

Small splits at the finish saw some GC contenders lose between 5 and 12 seconds. Kelderman lost 5 which is annoying but so did Contador and a few others. Spilak completely out of contention after a shocking ride from Katusha yesterday.

Race standings

AUS  1  MATTHEWS, Michael (ORICA GreenEDGE)    9:41:46
NED  2  DUMOULIN, Tom (GIANT - ALPECIN)           + 14
NZL  3  BEVIN, Patrick (CANNONDALE)               + 19
ESP  4  IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI, Jon (MOVISTAR)     
GBR  5  THOMAS, Geraint (SKY)                 
NED  6  WESTRA, Lieuwe (ASTANA)                   + 24
BEL  7  DEVENYNS, Dries (IAM CYCLING)             + 25
FRA  8  DEMARE, Arnaud (FDJ)                   
POL  9  MAJKA, Rafal (TINKOFF)                    + 27
AUS  10 PORTE, Richie (BMC RACING)             
BEL  11 WELLENS, Tim (LOTTO SOUDAL)               + 28
NED  12 KELDERMAN, Wilco (LOTTO NL - JUMBO)       + 30
BEL  13 VANMARCKE, Sep (LOTTO NL - JUMBO)         + 31
ESP  14 IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI, Gorka (MOVISTAR)   
ESP  15 FERNANDEZ, Ruben (MOVISTAR)           
KAZ  16 LUTSENKO, Alexey (ASTANA)                 + 33
FRA  17 GALLOPIN, Tony (LOTTO SOUDAL)         
ESP  18 CONTADOR VELASCO, Alberto (TINKOFF)   
GBR  19 YATES, Simon (ORICA GreenEDGE)            + 37
LTU  20 KONOVALOVAS, Ignatas (FDJ)             

A cracking stage in store today with 6 categorised climbs culminating in a ride up Mont Brouilly to our first mountain top finish. Should be exciting, I'll post my picks up when I make them.

[TommyPlus]

Another week long stage race begins today. Tirreno - Adriatico contains a ITT, TTT, sprints, lumps, bumps, hills, mountains, rain, sun etc. Looks an exciting race but unfortunately there is no live Eurosport coverage in my location so although I'll be watching the highlights, I won't be getting involved financially.

Decent preview here...
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tirreno-adriatico-2016/preview/

Odds here...
https://m.oddschecker.com/t/cycling/tirreno-adriatico/winner

[rinswun]

Enjoying your previews and reports Tommy. Keep it up.

[Tonji]

Could Matthews hang on for the overall win? Not beyond the realms, he has the ability to hang on in the climbs.

Have had a small ew on Vuillermoz for today.

[TommyPlus]

Paris - Nice Stage 3

A really difficult stage to get to grips with. I am not sure if it will go to a puncheur with strong climbing legs or a mountain man with a bit of a kick.
So I've chosen one of each.

Click to see full-size image.

Tom Dumoulin has been a revelation in the last 9 months. He looked so strong on the dirt roads on Monday, beautifully positioned, seemingly cruising and he won a similar stage in last year's Vuelta, with a steep finishing climb after a rolling day(stage 9).


Tony Gallopin talked in an interview on Monday about how all winter he sole focus has been this race. No prepping for grand tours or one day classics for him, this is his big/only early season goal, this route seems to suit him and we know he will be giving it all and not saving something for bigger battles ahead. If he is close with a km to go then it's possible his power can shine through and he can blast away to victory.

Recommendations

T Dumoulin 1pt EW 12/1 365
T Gallopin 1pt EW 20/1 PP

rinswun thanks for the kind words, it genuinely motivates me to continue writing and making the content more interesting when I know people are reading.

[rinswun]

No worries. I think your previews are excellent and I like your thought process so will be following you in each time.

[TommyPlus]

Could Matthews hang on for the overall win? Not beyond the realms, he has the ability to hang on in the climbs.

Have had a small ew on Vuillermoz for today.

He could hang on today sure but stage 6 looks pretty tough, he has some sort of chance as we have seen wearing the leader's jersey really motivates riders but I wouldn't be backing him to do it, best price of 10/1 to win the race.

[Tonji]

Could Matthews hang on for the overall win? Not beyond the realms, he has the ability to hang on in the climbs.

Have had a small ew on Vuillermoz for today.

He could hang on today sure but stage 6 looks pretty tough, he has some sort of chance as we have seen wearing the leader's jersey really motivates riders but I wouldn't be backing him to do it, best price of 10/1 to win the race.

Today & tomorrow he certainly has a chance of bonus seconds, possible to have close to a minute on Contador. Stage 5 tricky to control in yellow with Ventoux early in the stage, but doable. Stage 6 as you say the Queen stage, but finish on the Madone is a steady 5-6% for 15km, & possible to control time losses. Certainly not backable at 10s, but the 100/1 pre race would of been nice.

[TommyPlus]

Agree with that but likely to just have around 10-15 seconds on Thomas. In my eyes Thomas and Dumoulin are more of a threat that Contador.

[TommyPlus]

Stage 3 was neutralised after 100kms then cancelled/abandoned altogether because of snow.
This snow to be precise...

Click to see full-size image.

Who'd have thought, snow, in Italy, in the mountains, in early March.

Oh well, standings remained unaltered and we move on to stage 4 tomorrow.
Matthews was dropped before the cancellation but he won't lose any time. So he still has the yellow jersey with his lead intact but seems less likely he will be able to defend on the tougher stages.

Stroke of fortune for you Tonji, Vuillermoz had crashed and abandoned but you'll get your stake refunded.
Stay lucky.

[Tonji]

ha, had just tuned in for the finish. Oh well back to work.