Morning all. I'm back from my recent hiatus. Went to India to watch some cricket.
Anyway today is one of the iconic races of the season.
Tour Of Flanders 255.9km
| Click to see full-size image. |
Profile| Click to see full-size image. |
Climbs| Click to see full-size image. |
Weather| Click to see full-size image. |
ContendersFabian Cancellara| Click to see full-size image. |
It's his final season, can the undisputed recent king of the cobbles script a fairytale ending? He is in fantastic form, winning Strade Bianchi this season and as a three time former champion it's very difficult to see how he isn't there at the business end. Capable of incredible bursts of power up the cobbles after 240km. He is a worthy favourite. 3/1
Peter Sagan| Click to see full-size image. |
The pretender to Canc's crown as the man to beat in monuments. Current world champion, he is having an excellent season with a win in Gent-Wevelghem and his customary array of second place finishes. Tactically improving all the time and has a huge chance of winning his first monument today. 9/2.
Greg Van Avermaet| Click to see full-size image. |
The great Belgian hope is the absence of any meaningful form of Tom Boonen and Phil Gilbert. Like Sagan he had been a perennial bridesmaid but has worked on his tactics and has benefitted from being the clear leader at BMC. Can he follow the decisive attacks and be there at the end? Would have a great chance if it came to a sprint finish. Beat Sagan at Omloop and won the GC in a snow decimated Adriatico. Form has tailed off a little but it's possible he can peak again here. 11/1.
Sep Vanmarcke| Click to see full-size image. |
An absolute wattage powerhouse and long touted as a monument winner, will today be the day for Sep? Clearly capable of mixing it with anyone you could say his results over the last couple of years are disappointing. Lots of top 10s without ever really looking like winning a big one. Think he struggles for a little tactical nous and his team is reasonably awful. 12/1
Michal Kwiatkowski| Click to see full-size image. |
Team Sky's big money signing, purchased specifically to win these types of races, races that have so far eluded Team Sky as they still await their first monument win. Has a very strong team behind him(if they are all in for him) and don't expect to see him mentioned until he pops up at just the right time. An intelligent rider, he is able to win solo or in a sprint which makes him very dangerous. 14/1
Tiesj Benoot
The apple of my eye, burst into the limelight with a 5th place finish here last year as a 21 year old. Almost unfathomable achievement and limitless potential. Will surely win multiple classics and monuments. Has actually been a little below my expectations this season, riding well without ever really lighting up a race. Surely training to peak for today. 25/1
Etixx
A saw a lovely quote about Etixx today - "lots of Chiefs and not enough Indians". Boonen, Terpstra, Trentin, Vandenbergh and Stybar. All possible winners of this race but surely they would need to be the designated leader. Etixx seem to adopt a wait and see attitude which is rarely successful. I quite like Terpstra's chances but how can you back someone who may end up as a domestique.
Prices range from 20/1(Terpstra) to 100/1(Trentin)
Other ContendersA plethora of riders could step up if their leader isn't feeling great. Thomas, Rowe and Stannard for Sky, Roelandts for Lotto as well as other definite leaders like Kristoff(form?), Boassen Hagen(good enough) and Demare(ditto).
PredictionSeems logical that Cancellara will attack up the final ascent of the Kwaremont, Sagan will follow along with anyone else capable. Before I saw the weather forecast I figured that Trek will make it hard enough that probably only Sagan would be able to follow Canc. Now the weather looks good I think a few other riders will make it. I see a group of maybe 6 together after the Paterburg then the fun and games will start.
Cancellara can't wait for a sprint and neither can people like Benoot, Vanmarcke and almost everyone from Etixx(Trentin excluded). Whereas Sagan, GVA and Kwiatkowski would probably fancy their chances.
So you need to figure out the decisive group and fathom out possible tactics once it's formed. Best of luck
I'm on Benoot ante post so I'm hoping he can make the decisive group and slip away whilst the quick men look at each other.
A huge combination of things can happen and as ridiculous as it sounds, it's probably a race to sit and enjoy. I'll be enjoying it with some Belgian beer as is the tradition.
Today is a day I feel sorry for people who don't enjoy watching cycling. Their lives are poorer for it.
Best of luck with all your bets and thank you for indulging me and reading this incredibly long and meandering post.
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