Like Sport, Love Winners - Bettingemporium.com

[JoeBeevers]

Sometimes it goes the other way too. Neil wrote up a game a few weeks ago (UNDER 43.5 Total Pts Miami vs Buffalo at 10/11 20th Oct) but several bookmakers pushed it out to 44.5 between the tip going up and the game starting. I remember this one particularly because total points made up at exactly 44. In the spread sheet and stats and ROI for Bettingemporium it shows as a losing bet of course but my Paddypower column on my own personal spreadsheet shows a win.

[MahoganyVic]

Cool thanks for the replies. Will deffo be subscribing in the near future!

[Bad Beat]

I appreciate the business model behind the site was always to go subscription based but disappointed it had gone subscription based at this point in the season. I would be interested on the ROI to a level stake because the bets strength seemed to increase after a bit of a bad spell.


 I forgot to reply to this one at the time. It just isn't true.

 First of all I never really had a  bad spell. We have had 11 weeks of the season and I've either won or broken even on all bar one (that's from memory I haven't been through and counted, I don't really think in terms of weeks just worry about the bottom line, although anyone can see every bet I placed on the site). I'm betting an average of 8 points on each bet over the whole season and the average in recent weeks has been closer to 9 points a bet. The average of the first three weeks was around 6 points per bet.

 You make it sound like I've been desperately doubling-up to get my money back when all I've been doing is slightly increasing stakes while on a good run, when I have more information to bet on (we are deeper into the season). Anyone who has followed the bets as suggested will have built their bankroll and can easily cope with the slightly increased stakes. In the first couple of weeks I wanted to start a little gently and I didn't feel so confident until I had more data to work on.

 The way your post portrays it seems a bit mean.

 I'm not sure I have an answer to why we picked this point of the season to start charging. Did you mean it would have suited you better to pay from week one? I guess we could retrospectively charge people. I'll suggest it to Joe.

 This weeks bets will be up in a bit. I hope people realise that I work hard on this and so far it seems to show a profit.

 

[Kmac84]

I appreciate the business model behind the site was always to go subscription based but disappointed it had gone subscription based at this point in the season. I would be interested on the ROI to a level stake because the bets strength seemed to increase after a bit of a bad spell.


 I forgot to reply to this one at the time. It just isn't true.

 First of all I never really had a  bad spell. We have had 11 weeks of the season and I've either won or broken even on all bar one (that's from memory I haven't been through and counted, I don't really think in terms of weeks just worry about the bottom line, although anyone can see every bet I placed on the site). I'm betting an average of 8 points on each bet over the whole season and the average in recent weeks has been closer to 9 points a bet. The average of the first three weeks was around 6 points per bet.

 You make it sound like I've been desperately doubling-up to get my money back when all I've been doing is slightly increasing stakes while on a good run, when I have more information to bet on (we are deeper into the season). Anyone who has followed the bets as suggested will have built their bankroll and can easily cope with the slightly increased stakes. In the first couple of weeks I wanted to start a little gently and I didn't feel so confident until I had more data to work on.

 The way your post portrays it seems a bit mean.

 I'm not sure I have an answer to why we picked this point of the season to start charging. Did you mean it would have suited you better to pay from week one? I guess we could retrospectively charge people. I'll suggest it to Joe.

 This weeks bets will be up in a bit. I hope people realise that I work hard on this and so far it seems to show a profit.

 

Sorry if you felt I was ool. Wasn't my intention.

Fwiw I have no issue with it being a pay service, although personally would have preferred to have had more notice of it going that way. Charging retrospectively, good luck with that.

I would gladly pay a subscription to the service but would prefer a set of parameters that were pre-determined.  If the nfl stuff takes you to December or whenever will there be a chance to subscribe from January to January say? I would like to be involved on that. Especially with Cheltenham, the World Cup etc!

[Bad Beat]

 I'm certain we'll be looking to have a great season and then charge the happy subscribers for the play-offs. We also have some plans to do some affiliate deals.

 Not really planning to announce all our business ideas in advance.

 I was up at 7am and I worked really hard again this week. Will have some bets in a couple of hours.

[Marky147]

I was surprised that given the amount of graft it must take, that it was a free service for so long and for 2 months worth of matches £50 is giving it away!

Gamblers are a funny bunch...

[JoeBeevers]

I was surprised that given the amount of graft it must take, that it was a free service for so long and for 2 months worth of matches £50 is giving it away!

Gamblers are a funny bunch...

Thanks Mark.

Neil managed SIX winners from 7 bets yesterday! The season statistics now look like this:

+99.91 points / 67% winning weeks / +18.50% ROI for the season up to and including week 12 (Nov 24th)

You can see all of Neil's bets (results only) on the site without paying a subscription here (you do need to register which is free):
http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/12

Those who signed up as soon as we started charging got 8 weeks for £49.99. There are 5 weeks left in the regular season. You can sign up now for the rest of the regular season for £39.99.

It will always be better signing up earlier rather than later ;-)

We have decided against charging for the first nine weeks of NFL but we appreciate the suggestion.  

[JoeBeevers]

Turkey-Day Shootout Write up Posted

There are three NFL games today at 530pm, 930pm and 130am UKT

Neil has done a write up on all three and recommended two bets.

[Marky147]

Almost forgot there was NFL today, cheers.

Will enjoy watching with my Thanksgiving feast Pot Noodle...

Some going last Sunday, the only bet not to come in was the 2nd one on the St. Louis game.

The only downer was that St. Louis bet being the one in my degen acca

[GreekWay]

I don't know if you bet on the NBA or cricket but I would like to see some picks on these two sports alongside Football and NFL.

Also is there a chance of adding picks of European football matches?

Congratulations for the site. It really helps.

[Bad Beat]

 Thanks Greeky.

 Hopefully after the smallish losses two weeks ago and the loss last week people won't be getting too upset with me. Obviously the season is still showing a decent return and a healthy ROI, but it does worry me that people may have started doubling up after we had such a good run. I really hope everyone kept to the recommended stakes (and that they couldn't get online last week).

 As you might be able to tell though I do take it very seriously and I spend many hours a week on the NFL. I do bet on NBA but I have some methods there that I'd rather not share plus I follow a few other people who probably don't wish to share their selections. On top of that the NBA is literally every day which means a massive time commitment. I can't really see us doing the NBA.

 One thing we did consider when we started BE was that tipping sites often tip on markets that are tiny in size and with firms that won't lay a bet. It's no good boasting you have an ROI of 60% if nobody can get on your bets. We really have tried to only tip in very liquid markets where the effect of our tips will not change the market and everyone will get on. This obviously makes it harder to win (these are the hardest markets to have an edge on in some ways). However I'm happy that in NFL and Premier League soccer we can suggest a bet and 100 or even 200 people could follow having hundreds on each without making a massive difference.

 To stick with that thought we plan to have bets for Cheltenham, (one of the only horse meetings where the market is big enough for everyone), the golf majors, some more football and the World Cup for sure.

 In all the time I have known Joe he has been a very enthusiastic and certainly a successful cricket bettor. I am a large lifetime winner on cricket but I know very little about it. I guess the match result market on test matches is an example of the sort of market that 300 people could have £250 on without causing a big ripple, but that seems a really tough market to beat.

 I guess that would be where we could start though. I'll speak to Joe.

[Acidmouse]

good luck Bad on the coming weeks, I am sure it will turn into a nice profit for you and the subscribers.

[TightEnd]

sorry to interject

Generally (teaching Neil to suck eggs) you will not get rich quick backing one team to beat the other at cramped odds in an efficient market. The opportunity lies in sub markets where you might know more than the odds compiler and across a series or a game look at markets lke

- Top Bowlers by team

- Top batsman by team

- Runs in the day

etc etc

(of course Australia smashing England at Brisbane and a lesser extent at Adelaide was an example of a big change that the market hadn't priced in, but its rare)

[Bad Beat]

Totally agree there Tighty. Problem is that top series batsman and the like are quite hard to win on unless you can be on at top price and if we tip someone at 11/2 when it's just with Stan James and Skybet then it won't be easy to get 300 bets of £50 to £200 but at 9/2 it may not be a +ev bet.

 (sorry wasn't teaching you back Rich, pretty sure you know this, think we're all just agreeing it's tricky).

 One of the reasons that I think the NFL market can be beaten (and the NBA to an extent) is that the large amount of public money outweighs the pro money and moves the lines from where they "should" be, (if the market was set to predict the result and not to factor in any other bookmaking considerations like balancing the book or leaning towards popular teams). The cricket market used to have that inherent exploitable bias for years as the Indian firms were always buried under a mass of bets on the draw and they would shorten this to a ridiculous extent making results always value. I suspect the market has corrected itself on this one.

[RobS]

Hey Neil / Joe

Quick question. With your Premier League 'Overs' recommends, I understand you have a trusted computer programme that must suggest to you what the true price should be for each game (correct me if I'm wrong).

What I don't understand is why you always put up 'Overs' bets and never the 'Unders', surely it must consider the market wrong in the other direction sometimes to make the 'Unders' a bet?