Like Sport, Love Winners - Bettingemporium.com

[Bad Beat]

 That makes 4/1 better than 9/2 I reckon.

[Omm]

Neil, how long in advance will you be giving out selections. Say for example I sign up for Tuesday 11th, will it be on the day or will you have some before ( apart from what you have given for free) ?

[JoeBeevers]

Neil, how long in advance will you be giving out selections. Say for example I sign up for Tuesday 11th, will it be on the day or will you have some before ( apart from what you have given for free) ?

Neil can answer this better than me but I believe the plan is to publish everything on each race day apart from perhaps any more ante-post write ups and analysis that he does. The ante post write up will probably be published in both the Cheltenham Package tip category and also the day that it relates to category.

It anyone hasn't already signed up to Bettingemporium and you intend to do so please use this Blonde affiliate link to do so:

http://www.bettingemporium.com/?aff=blondepoker

[JoeBeevers]

Neil has done an in depth write up and analysis on the 2014 Oscars and has found at least two great bets.

It is now published and is free to access to all registered users.

[tikay]

Thanks for the lovely winner Neil.

I missed the 9/2 (Helium) but still very happy with 4/1. 

[Bad Beat]

 I hate to whine about knock-backs because that really is part of the game and we all must just work harder to bet smarter and get the money on. In a month where Ladbrokes announced yet more bad figures and the share-price fell again I must share this story of my attempt to back Helium, simply because I have literally no idea what these people are trying to achieve now and I really think they have even less idea...

 I was tracking the prices on Betfair on the Oscars by a simple method of noting the best price with any bookmaker I could find about a month ago for every nominee in every category and having a check on Betfair for any liquidity. As we got to two weeks away I began looking every few days at the prices and more firms were coming up with prices on all categories. Stan James were the 1st to do all 24 and soon Betfair started to have a price you could bet on for every nominee, just to very modest amounts.

 At this stage Ladbrokes and Hills were just betting on the 6 "main categories" plus foreign movie and possibly one other.

 About a week before I noticed more firms having prices for all 24 and the Betfair market started to have two-way prices on most nominees. You could now bet £50 on most people at a reasonable margin.

 Now Ladbrokes chose to offer prices on all 24 categories with a few days to go. There were only 8 in this years Oscars where the favourite was bigger than 1/4 and in many there were just two or three real contenders.

 On Friday night I decided to take a real look and I read every single website I could find that had an Oscar preview. It took me around four hours. For Live Action Short it seemed that people were split between two films and one of those was Helium. The price on Betfair was around 4.3-4.4 with money waiting either side but with more money waiting to back the movie. That seemed reasonable to me as many people saw it as a straight race with The Voorman Problem at 10/11. You could probably back both.

 I took a new look at all the prices from the bookies and at that point 1st noticed Ladbrokes were 6/1 Helium.

 You waited until the last four days to price up, when all other firms had already done that and then you decided to go 6/1 when someone on Betfair wanted £80 at 4.4 and between 20 firms around the world the next best price was 9/2 (from Hills who also had prices for less than a week).

 Surely if your job is to deal the Oscars for Ladbrokes and you are last up with prices then you should take a look at what is on offer just on Oddschecker and Betfair? It would take 5 mins. The only motive I can fathom is they had a massive opinion. Maybe we could have a big bet here...

[Bad Beat]

...obviously the shops is the only way to get on. They have these things on what they name their "call-over" system. You needn't write a slip, it's set up in the machine, the cashier doesn't need to spend time looking for prices they just type Helium and it comes up 6/1 for Best Live Action Short Oscar. You try to bet what you want and it will tell you if you've exceeded the maximum and you'll be presented with a printed ticket. Until you get the exact maximum right by trial and error we can't know what it might be.

 At Rayner's Lane a guy is watching a ticker which shows all maximum bets coming on any market via shops on call-over bets or via the internet, text or telephone. If a bet comes up max twice and one is a shop he may ring the shop and ask who the customer is and what they want.

 I had a few people in shops ready to help with horses on Saturday and I asked them to bet Helium whenever they could.

 Ten minutes after I asked the market on Best Live Action Short was suspended. I had not yet got any sort of bet on. Ladbrokes seemed to still be offering the favourite at 4/7 (2.2 Betfair) and the outsider at 50/1 (100/1 Betfair) but the other fims came up suspended. One bet placer told me they had been offered £5 which they  declined.

 Four hours later I rang customer services to ask if they had Oscar prices and then to ask if they had Best Live Action Short. Oddschecker showed Helium at 6/1 but the Ladbrokes website said "market suspended". They said it wasn't available and I asked if they could make it available again as I wanted a bet. They noted my query and three hours later I called again.

 At this stage nobody had got 1p on and all that had happened was someone tried to bet £50 and declined to bet £5.

 The second time I called they insisted on getting my account details, (Ladbrokes rarely close accounts they just restrict a lot of them), before they would do anything. I asked if there were prices and if there were plans to open the market. By now it was 7pm on Saturday. I planned a Saturday night stroll round 20 shops.

 The telephonist came back and told me quite curtly...

 "the trader said you can have £5 at 6/1"

 I hadn't even asked for a selection and I just wanted 6/1 to appear so I might slip a few bets through in the shops. I declined hoping they might just put 5/1 up and leave it there. I posted my article on Betting Emporium and I went out to the shops.

 1st shop I went in they say they don't bet on the Oscars. The guy then asks how to spell Oscars. I tell him and we wait 5 minutes. Then he asks what are the Oscars. I explain and suddenly a light-bulb appears. He had thought I was asking for first goalscorer. A drunk man approached the counter and put his face inches from my head. I let him go first.

 I was offered 4/1.

 In the end I backed Helium at 9/2 and 4/1 in very many shops. In the last Hills shop I went to they told me £50 at 9/2 and £50 at 7/2. I thought maybe "the rest at SP".

 The film went as short as 7/4 in the minutes before the off.

 If I hadn't have bet on this film and tipped it on Betting Emporium I would guess they would see almost no action on this category. In the end they got lots of action.

 I can see an argument for providing a full service of markets as a barrier of entry to new firms and as a way of ensuring that VIP customers can find everything they could ever want to bet on and never need to take their casino and FOBT business elsewhere.

 I just cannot understand the decisions here though. When I hear people say they must be ripe for a takeover and the share price is too low I think about Saturday and the many days of similar experiences with similar firms.

 They must all be a massive sell, they are all staffed by incompetent morons. The management have no idea what they are doing and no way of improving things and the people right at the top are the worst. Imagine when the FOBTs go how can they survive at all?

 We must punish these people while they are still here and operating the way they do.

[Tal]

They said it wasn't available and I asked if they could make it available again as I wanted a bet.


Brilliant!

[arbboy]

...obviously the shops is the only way to get on. They have these things on what they name their "call-over" system. You needn't write a slip, it's set up in the machine, the cashier doesn't need to spend time looking for prices they just type Helium and it comes up 6/1 for Best Live Action Short Oscar. You try to bet what you want and it will tell you if you've exceeded the maximum and you'll be presented with a printed ticket. Until you get the exact maximum right by trial and error we can't know what it might be.

 At Rayner's Lane a guy is watching a ticker which shows all maximum bets coming on any market via shops on call-over bets or via the internet, text or telephone. If a bet comes up max twice and one is a shop he may ring the shop and ask who the customer is and what they want.

 I had a few people in shops ready to help with horses on Saturday and I asked them to bet Helium whenever they could.

 Ten minutes after I asked the market on Best Live Action Short was suspended. I had not yet got any sort of bet on. Ladbrokes seemed to still be offering the favourite at 4/7 (2.2 Betfair) and the outsider at 50/1 (100/1 Betfair) but the other fims came up suspended. One bet placer told me they had been offered £5 which they  declined.

 Four hours later I rang customer services to ask if they had Oscar prices and then to ask if they had Best Live Action Short. Oddschecker showed Helium at 6/1 but the Ladbrokes website said "market suspended". They said it wasn't available and I asked if they could make it available again as I wanted a bet. They noted my query and three hours later I called again.

 At this stage nobody had got 1p on and all that had happened was someone tried to bet £50 and declined to bet £5.

 The second time I called they insisted on getting my account details, (Ladbrokes rarely close accounts they just restrict a lot of them), before they would do anything. I asked if there were prices and if there were plans to open the market. By now it was 7pm on Saturday. I planned a Saturday night stroll round 20 shops.

 The telephonist came back and told me quite curtly...

 "the trader said you can have £5 at 6/1"

 I hadn't even asked for a selection and I just wanted 6/1 to appear so I might slip a few bets through in the shops. I declined hoping they might just put 5/1 up and leave it there. I posted my article on Betting Emporium and I went out to the shops.

 1st shop I went in they say they don't bet on the Oscars. The guy then asks how to spell Oscars. I tell him and we wait 5 minutes. Then he asks what are the Oscars. I explain and suddenly a light-bulb appears. He had thought I was asking for first goalscorer. A drunk man approached the counter and put his face inches from my head. I let him go first.

 I was offered 4/1.

 In the end I backed Helium at 9/2 and 4/1 in very many shops. In the last Hills shop I went to they told me £50 at 9/2 and £50 at 7/2. I thought maybe "the rest at SP".

 The film went as short as 7/4 in the minutes before the off.

 If I hadn't have bet on this film and tipped it on Betting Emporium I would guess they would see almost no action on this category. In the end they got lots of action.

 I can see an argument for providing a full service of markets as a barrier of entry to new firms and as a way of ensuring that VIP customers can find everything they could ever want to bet on and never need to take their casino and FOBT business elsewhere.

 I just cannot understand the decisions here though. When I hear people say they must be ripe for a takeover and the share price is too low I think about Saturday and the many days of similar experiences with similar firms.

 They must all be a massive sell, they are all staffed by incompetent morons. The management have no idea what they are doing and no way of improving things and the people right at the top are the worst. Imagine when the FOBTs go how can they survive at all?

 We must punish these people while they are still here and operating the way they do.

Ladbrokes are by far and away the worst of the lot shop wise imo.  I have recently been told my business is not welcome of any size (not even £25 at sp stuff) in any local ladbrokes shop.  When i asked 'what if the senior traders at head office really want to lay something that i want to back for serious money? the reply from the shop manager was 'i make the decisions who gets bets in my shop not head office' which i thought was comical but i generally think the guy was being serious.  Its comical that shop managers have the ability to totally close 'accounts' effectively based purely on small sample P+L figures in their shop/local areas which are totally results driven.  It takes no account of the bigger picture of what the more senior/highly paid 'traders' at want to lay they would simply never be told of the bets i wish to place in their shops because of this shop managers decision.  There seems to be huge 'margin' pressure on ladbrokes shop managers at the minute from above and they seem to be in total lock up defense mode.

[arbboy]

...obviously the shops is the only way to get on. They have these things on what they name their "call-over" system. You needn't write a slip, it's set up in the machine, the cashier doesn't need to spend time looking for prices they just type Helium and it comes up 6/1 for Best Live Action Short Oscar. You try to bet what you want and it will tell you if you've exceeded the maximum and you'll be presented with a printed ticket. Until you get the exact maximum right by trial and error we can't know what it might be.

 At Rayner's Lane a guy is watching a ticker which shows all maximum bets coming on any market via shops on call-over bets or via the internet, text or telephone. If a bet comes up max twice and one is a shop he may ring the shop and ask who the customer is and what they want.

 I had a few people in shops ready to help with horses on Saturday and I asked them to bet Helium whenever they could.

 Ten minutes after I asked the market on Best Live Action Short was suspended. I had not yet got any sort of bet on. Ladbrokes seemed to still be offering the favourite at 4/7 (2.2 Betfair) and the outsider at 50/1 (100/1 Betfair) but the other fims came up suspended. One bet placer told me they had been offered £5 which they  declined.

 Four hours later I rang customer services to ask if they had Oscar prices and then to ask if they had Best Live Action Short. Oddschecker showed Helium at 6/1 but the Ladbrokes website said "market suspended". They said it wasn't available and I asked if they could make it available again as I wanted a bet. They noted my query and three hours later I called again.

 At this stage nobody had got 1p on and all that had happened was someone tried to bet £50 and declined to bet £5.

 The second time I called they insisted on getting my account details, (Ladbrokes rarely close accounts they just restrict a lot of them), before they would do anything. I asked if there were prices and if there were plans to open the market. By now it was 7pm on Saturday. I planned a Saturday night stroll round 20 shops.

 The telephonist came back and told me quite curtly...

 "the trader said you can have £5 at 6/1"

 I hadn't even asked for a selection and I just wanted 6/1 to appear so I might slip a few bets through in the shops. I declined hoping they might just put 5/1 up and leave it there. I posted my article on Betting Emporium and I went out to the shops.

 1st shop I went in they say they don't bet on the Oscars. The guy then asks how to spell Oscars. I tell him and we wait 5 minutes. Then he asks what are the Oscars. I explain and suddenly a light-bulb appears. He had thought I was asking for first goalscorer. A drunk man approached the counter and put his face inches from my head. I let him go first.

 I was offered 4/1.

 In the end I backed Helium at 9/2 and 4/1 in very many shops. In the last Hills shop I went to they told me £50 at 9/2 and £50 at 7/2. I thought maybe "the rest at SP".

 The film went as short as 7/4 in the minutes before the off.

 If I hadn't have bet on this film and tipped it on Betting Emporium I would guess they would see almost no action on this category. In the end they got lots of action.

 I can see an argument for providing a full service of markets as a barrier of entry to new firms and as a way of ensuring that VIP customers can find everything they could ever want to bet on and never need to take their casino and FOBT business elsewhere.

 I just cannot understand the decisions here though. When I hear people say they must be ripe for a takeover and the share price is too low I think about Saturday and the many days of similar experiences with similar firms.

 They must all be a massive sell, they are all staffed by incompetent morons. The management have no idea what they are doing and no way of improving things and the people right at the top are the worst. Imagine when the FOBTs go how can they survive at all?

 We must punish these people while they are still here and operating the way they do.

Ladbrokes are by far and away the worst of the lot shop wise imo.  I have recently been told my business is not welcome of any size (not even £25 at sp stuff) in any local ladbrokes shop.  When i asked 'what if the senior traders at head office really want to lay something that i want to back for serious money? the reply from the shop manager was 'i make the decisions who gets bets in my shop not head office' which i thought was comical but i generally think the guy was being serious.  Its comical that shop managers have the ability to totally close 'accounts' effectively based purely on small sample P+L figures in their shop/local areas which are totally results driven.  It takes no account of the bigger picture of what the more senior/highly paid 'traders' at want to lay they would simply never be told of the bets i wish to place in their shops because of this shop managers decision.  There seems to be huge 'margin' pressure on ladbrokes shop managers at the minute from above and they seem to be in total lock up defense mode.

Dancing on Ice market is just another example of what Neil has stated above on the oscars.  This market is well formed was up all day yday and there was a relatively large drift on the jolly.  Lads opened up 1/5 9/2 10/1 3 hours after sunday night's show.  Similar to everyone else in the market.  During Monday there was a slow and steady drift on the jolly and plenty of 'live' cash in decent amounts for the 2nd fav at 5/1 hills/888 and lads were 2nd at 9/2.  Pretty much every firm has shortened the 2nd fav over the course of Monday.  People have been asking for under 4/1 on bf for decent cash (over £500 has been matched under 4/1 yday) ladbrokes are still holding their original prices.  I assume its opinion and/or liability driven based on their ante post book yet if you try to ring them up and/or bet in a shop you simply cannot get on yet i assume they wish to lay the 2nd fav given they have held the price for nearly 36 hours now.  If i went into my local shops and asked for £500 at 9/2 the head office traders may want to lay the bet for liability reasons etc etc (they may have laid a mug £20k at 1/20 ray weeks ago and are quite happy to accommodate 9/2 hayley backers but the head office will never know about my desire to bet because the shop just refuses to refer my bets to head office.

[TightEnd]

I wanted to contact the Paddy Power Chief Exec yesterday. Was offered 50p on a Cheltenham offer they heavily advertised etc etc. Was going to try to get a sensible amount on and appeal to his sense of fair play. My lifetime Paddy Power account is in loss

All links to the PP Corporate site are broken from search engines, the betting site, head office would give me an investor relations email. I wrote to them but got an automated response that there would be no reply unless I was a corporate investor or on the shareholders register as an individual

I went to a shop, been in it once lifetime. Tried to place the bet. Got referred and cut back


The industry just looks in a complete mess to me.

[Marky147]

Good shout on the Oscars, Neil!

I started reading the update, but got called away whilst reading it, and completely forgot about it.

Well done to everyone who got on, with their fiver it appears

[tikay]

Good shout on the Oscars, Neil!

I started reading the update, but got called away whilst reading it, and completely forgot about it.

Well done to everyone who got on, with their fiver it appears

That's exactly how much Ladbrokes allowed me. Wm Hill took my full bet, no questions asked.

[arbboy]

I wanted to contact the Paddy Power Chief Exec yesterday. Was offered 50p on a Cheltenham offer they heavily advertised etc etc. Was going to try to get a sensible amount on and appeal to his sense of fair play. My lifetime Paddy Power account is in loss

All links to the PP Corporate site are broken from search engines, the betting site, head office would give me an investor relations email. I wrote to them but got an automated response that there would be no reply unless I was a corporate investor or on the shareholders register as an individual

I went to a shop, been in it once lifetime. Tried to place the bet. Got referred and cut back


The industry just looks in a complete mess to me.

It is in a mess but to add some balance to the argument i was talking to a well known professional gambler/poker player at the weekend who said he had just been into a paddy power shop for the first time ever in this town and requested £300 at 30/1 on 1-0 sunderland in the carling cup final.  He showed me the betting slip as i didn't believe him.  Paddy were top price on their own at 30/1 on oddschecker and bf was 29.0-30.0 for £400 either side and they took the bet after referring it to head office and were still 30/1 several hours later when the betfair price was unchanged.

It just seems it is so hit and miss getting on which is the frustrating thing.  It just seems totally random whether u run into a trader at their head office who likes to actually lay a bet or one that is scared to death.

[Marky147]

Good shout on the Oscars, Neil!

I started reading the update, but got called away whilst reading it, and completely forgot about it.

Well done to everyone who got on, with their fiver it appears

That's exactly how much Ladbrokes allowed me. Wm Hill took my full bet, no questions asked.

Ha!

They're not all bad, well some of the time