blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
November 29, 2021, 10:54:24 PM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2263864 Posts in 66641 Topics by 16659 Members
Latest Member: Pokitren
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Community Forums
| |-+  Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
| | |-+  Mathematics and Betting Thread
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 Go Down Print
Author Topic: Mathematics and Betting Thread  (Read 16451 times)
Karabiner
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 22405


68 million light-years away


View Profile
« Reply #75 on: March 16, 2015, 09:50:03 PM »

Who's Carol?
Logged

If I'm not here I'm probably hacking it around the back nine
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #76 on: March 16, 2015, 09:55:08 PM »

Who's Carol?

Think it was a reference to the girl who used to be on Countdown, before she had a makeover and went all posh?
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Larry David
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 472



View Profile
« Reply #77 on: March 16, 2015, 10:06:32 PM »

Who's Carol?

Think it was a reference to the girl who used to be on Countdown, before she had a makeover and went all posh?

You don't miss a trick MR T
Logged

Lay Low Back High
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15857


View Profile
« Reply #78 on: May 14, 2015, 12:25:45 PM »

I have been meaning to put a post up here about each way betting more or less since I started.

First things first, I think betting a classic dirty each way using an online account is really stupid.  By classic dirty each way race I mean one with an odds on favourite and a few rags.   

Firstly you often get mugged on the win price with the bookies, so you will find yourself taking 5/1 on an 8/1 chance on the machine.  Secondly the very fact they are offering 5/1 on an 8/1 chance means that they are very aware that people are going to try and mug them on this race.  The end result is that you will often lose your account and not even get much value on the bet that cost you it.

Where you can make money and keep an account a bit longer is betting on good each way races.  So what makes a good each way race mathematically?

I am going to put togethether a couple of examples to show the difference between betting each way in a bad each way race and a good one.

Race 1 is a good each way race, we have 17 runners and get quarter the first 4.

We manage to find a runner that is 16/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 17 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 16/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 16/1 to finsh 5th, 12th or 17th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.

As we know he has a 1/17 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 4 places as 4/17.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 13/4 or just over 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 4/1.  That is a near 18% uplift on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 16/1 chances in races like this that were 16/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd make 9% return on my money each time I make an each way bet like this in the long run.

Race 2 is a bad each way race, we have 11 runners and get a fifth the first 3.

Like race 1, we manage to find a runner that is 10/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 11 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 10/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 10/1 to finsh 3rd, 6th or 11th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.  This should all be very familiar.

As we know he has a 1/11 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 3 places as 3/11.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 8/3 or just under 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 2/1.  That is just over an 18% haircut on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 10/1 chances in races like this that were 10/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd lose 9% of money each time I make an each way bet in the long run.
 
This is really crucial information to know if you are going to be putting a lot of each way bets on in the future.  If you do find that 10/1 chance in that 11 runner race, you just have to stop backing it each way.  Backing 10/1 chances each way is such an ingrained habit with punters that it might be hard to lose, but you should always look at the number of runners in the race before backing it each way.

Each time that horse finishes 2nd and 3rd in that 11 runner race, 95% of punters will be kicking themselves saying they should have backed it each way.   Many of your friends will happily point this out to you.  You need to be one of the 5% who knows you absolutely shouldn't have and usually it isn't even close.
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
doubleup
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 6914


View Profile
« Reply #79 on: May 14, 2015, 12:46:46 PM »


Without making things too complicated, remember that you can back win and place on the exchanges, so if you think the betfair win price is value, the betfair place price will presumably be value as well.  With the added wrinkle that in the circumstances doobs outlined, even more value can be found from a bookmaker.

Also some horses eg unknown on the going, first time blinkers, might have a win or flop profile so not really suitable for place backing.

Here is a calculator to compare bookies and exchanges prices and article about it.

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachway.html

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachwaycalc.html

Logged
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #80 on: May 14, 2015, 12:47:25 PM »


Brilliant stuff, thanks for sharing.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
arbboy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 13175


View Profile
« Reply #81 on: May 14, 2015, 12:57:31 PM »

I have been meaning to put a post up here about each way betting more or less since I started.

First things first, I think betting a classic dirty each way using an online account is really stupid.  By classic dirty each way race I mean one with an odds on favourite and a few rags.  

Firstly you often get mugged on the win price with the bookies, so you will find yourself taking 5/1 on an 8/1 chance on the machine.  Secondly the very fact they are offering 5/1 on an 8/1 chance means that they are very aware that people are going to try and mug them on this race.  The end result is that you will often lose your account and not even get much value on the bet that cost you it.

Where you can make money and keep an account a bit longer is betting on good each way races.  So what makes a good each way race mathematically?

I am going to put togethether a couple of examples to show the difference between betting each way in a bad each way race and a good one.

Race 1 is a good each way race, we have 17 runners and get quarter the first 4.

We manage to find a runner that is 16/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 17 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 16/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 16/1 to finsh 5th, 12th or 17th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.

As we know he has a 1/17 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 4 places as 4/17.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 13/4 or just over 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 4/1.  That is a near 18% uplift on the place terms from what they should offer you.  

If I could spend my life finding 16/1 chances in races like this that were 16/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd make 9% return on my money each time I make an each way bet like this in the long run.

Race 2 is a bad each way race, we have 11 runners and get a fifth the first 3.

Like race 1, we manage to find a runner that is 10/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 11 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 10/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 10/1 to finsh 3rd, 6th or 11th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.  This should all be very familiar.

As we know he has a 1/11 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 3 places as 3/11.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 8/3 or just under 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 2/1.  That is just over an 18% haircut on the place terms from what they should offer you.  

If I could spend my life finding 10/1 chances in races like this that were 10/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd lose 9% of money each time I make an each way bet in the long run.
 
This is really crucial information to know if you are going to be putting a lot of each way bets on in the future.  If you do find that 10/1 chance in that 11 runner race, you just have to stop backing it each way.  Backing 10/1 chances each way is such an ingrained habit with punters that it might be hard to lose, but you should always look at the number of runners in the race before backing it each way.

Each time that horse finishes 2nd and 3rd in that 11 runner race, 95% of punters will be kicking themselves saying they should have backed it each way.   Many of your friends will happily point this out to you.  You need to be one of the 5% who knows you absolutely shouldn't have and usually it isn't even close.

Awesome post esp the bit about always backing 10/1 or 16/1 shots ew.  It is the biggest leak of all amongst rec punters.  Even if they have an edge on the win part of the bet because they are a good judge they literally set fire to that edge (and more on top usually) by betting it ew and taking on maths which you just can't beat long term.

As i have said before probably the best 100 ew bets i have ever had in my life i would say the vast majority of them have been shorter than 4/1 and 50% of them shorter than 6/4 and many decent odds on.  Just think of Doob's bolded statement everytime you want to back that 16/1 shot ew because you always have or 'it is a good ew bet' blah blah.  

Next time you go racing just do one thing when you are in the betting ring and you will realise which races are like this.  Watch and listen to the old school bookmakers in the ring.  If they are shouting 'wiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnn or eachhhhhhhhhhhh way' to try and attract your business you can gtd that it is a terrible ew race to bet in, like race 2, in the example but the race offers obviously them a huge edge hence why they are so keen to 'sell' you an ew bet.  If it is like race 1 they won't be so keen to be selling you an ew bet if they are even offering ew terms on the race.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2015, 01:06:28 PM by arbboy » Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15857


View Profile
« Reply #82 on: May 14, 2015, 01:02:16 PM »


Without making things too complicated, remember that you can back win and place on the exchanges, so if you think the betfair win price is value, the betfair place price will presumably be value as well.  With the added wrinkle that in the circumstances doobs outlined, even more value can be found from a bookmaker.

Also some horses eg unknown on the going, first time blinkers, might have a win or flop profile so not really suitable for place backing.

Here is a calculator to compare bookies and exchanges prices and article about it.

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachway.html

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachwaycalc.html



I assume you are taliking a good each way race in the bit in bold.  With a bad each way race it might be true, but you't have to be such a good tipster to get over that 18% handicap on the place terms.  And of course you wouldn't need to do that if you just backed the win.

Of course there are circumstances that make one horse a better each way horse than another, for instance Abseil is first time out in the 3.45 which I suspect is a bit of a negative for place betting.  But 14/1 looks a decent price and the maths is still good.
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
peejaytwo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 447


View Profile
« Reply #83 on: May 14, 2015, 01:15:15 PM »

I have been meaning to put a post up here about each way betting more or less since I started.

First things first, I think betting a classic dirty each way using an online account is really stupid.  By classic dirty each way race I mean one with an odds on favourite and a few rags.   

Firstly you often get mugged on the win price with the bookies, so you will find yourself taking 5/1 on an 8/1 chance on the machine.  Secondly the very fact they are offering 5/1 on an 8/1 chance means that they are very aware that people are going to try and mug them on this race.  The end result is that you will often lose your account and not even get much value on the bet that cost you it.

Where you can make money and keep an account a bit longer is betting on good each way races.  So what makes a good each way race mathematically?

I am going to put togethether a couple of examples to show the difference between betting each way in a bad each way race and a good one.

Race 1 is a good each way race, we have 17 runners and get quarter the first 4.

We manage to find a runner that is 16/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 17 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 16/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 16/1 to finsh 5th, 12th or 17th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.

As we know he has a 1/17 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 4 places as 4/17.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 13/4 or just over 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 4/1.  That is a near 18% uplift on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 16/1 chances in races like this that were 16/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd make 9% return on my money each time I make an each way bet like this in the long run.

Race 2 is a bad each way race, we have 11 runners and get a fifth the first 3.

Like race 1, we manage to find a runner that is 10/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 11 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 10/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 10/1 to finsh 3rd, 6th or 11th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.  This should all be very familiar.

As we know he has a 1/11 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 3 places as 3/11.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 8/3 or just under 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 2/1.  That is just over an 18% haircut on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 10/1 chances in races like this that were 10/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd lose 9% of money each time I make an each way bet in the long run.
 
This is really crucial information to know if you are going to be putting a lot of each way bets on in the future.  If you do find that 10/1 chance in that 11 runner race, you just have to stop backing it each way.  Backing 10/1 chances each way is such an ingrained habit with punters that it might be hard to lose, but you should always look at the number of runners in the race before backing it each way.

Each time that horse finishes 2nd and 3rd in that 11 runner race, 95% of punters will be kicking themselves saying they should have backed it each way.   Many of your friends will happily point this out to you.  You need to be one of the 5% who knows you absolutely shouldn't have and usually it isn't even close.

Awesome post esp the bit about always backing 10/1 or 16/1 shots ew.  It is the biggest leak of all amongst rec punters.  Even if they have an edge on the win part of the bet because they are a good judge they literally set fire to that edge (and more on top usually) by betting it ew and taking on maths which you just can't beat long term.

As i have said before probably the best 100 ew bets i have ever had in my life i would say the vast majority of them have been shorter than 4/1 and 50% of them shorter than 6/4 and many decent odds on.  Just think of Doob's bolded statement everytime you want to back that 16/1 shot ew because you always have or 'it is a good ew bet' blah blah.

agreed,awesome post.
i tend to look for non handicaps where the horse i'm backing at 10/1 will win that percentage of the time, but as the race is uncompetitive the place part is better,i.e under 2/1.
the 5.30 at Tipp would be a good example betting All About Alfie at 9/1 (if i could) getting 9/5 on the place portion of the bet where the true odds are probably 6/4.

@doubleup
can't seem to get your calculator to work on iphone, is there another version for when i'm in the shops?
Logged
doubleup
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 6914


View Profile
« Reply #84 on: May 14, 2015, 01:20:00 PM »





 


@doubleup
can't seem to get your calculator to work on iphone, is there another version for when i'm in the shops?

ongoing project

I'm trying to learn php to have the calculators run on the website rather than links from onedrive which don't work well on phones.

 
Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15857


View Profile
« Reply #85 on: May 14, 2015, 01:27:04 PM »

I have been meaning to put a post up here about each way betting more or less since I started.

First things first, I think betting a classic dirty each way using an online account is really stupid.  By classic dirty each way race I mean one with an odds on favourite and a few rags.   

Firstly you often get mugged on the win price with the bookies, so you will find yourself taking 5/1 on an 8/1 chance on the machine.  Secondly the very fact they are offering 5/1 on an 8/1 chance means that they are very aware that people are going to try and mug them on this race.  The end result is that you will often lose your account and not even get much value on the bet that cost you it.

Where you can make money and keep an account a bit longer is betting on good each way races.  So what makes a good each way race mathematically?

I am going to put togethether a couple of examples to show the difference between betting each way in a bad each way race and a good one.

Race 1 is a good each way race, we have 17 runners and get quarter the first 4.

We manage to find a runner that is 16/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 17 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 16/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 16/1 to finsh 5th, 12th or 17th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.

As we know he has a 1/17 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 4 places as 4/17.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 13/4 or just over 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 4/1.  That is a near 18% uplift on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 16/1 chances in races like this that were 16/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd make 9% return on my money each time I make an each way bet like this in the long run.

Race 2 is a bad each way race, we have 11 runners and get a fifth the first 3.

Like race 1, we manage to find a runner that is 10/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 11 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 10/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 10/1 to finsh 3rd, 6th or 11th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.  This should all be very familiar.

As we know he has a 1/11 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 3 places as 3/11.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 8/3 or just under 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 2/1.  That is just over an 18% haircut on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 10/1 chances in races like this that were 10/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd lose 9% of money each time I make an each way bet in the long run.
 
This is really crucial information to know if you are going to be putting a lot of each way bets on in the future.  If you do find that 10/1 chance in that 11 runner race, you just have to stop backing it each way.  Backing 10/1 chances each way is such an ingrained habit with punters that it might be hard to lose, but you should always look at the number of runners in the race before backing it each way.

Each time that horse finishes 2nd and 3rd in that 11 runner race, 95% of punters will be kicking themselves saying they should have backed it each way.   Many of your friends will happily point this out to you.  You need to be one of the 5% who knows you absolutely shouldn't have and usually it isn't even close.

Awesome post esp the bit about always backing 10/1 or 16/1 shots ew.  It is the biggest leak of all amongst rec punters.  Even if they have an edge on the win part of the bet because they are a good judge they literally set fire to that edge (and more on top usually) by betting it ew and taking on maths which you just can't beat long term.

As i have said before probably the best 100 ew bets i have ever had in my life i would say the vast majority of them have been shorter than 4/1 and 50% of them shorter than 6/4 and many decent odds on.  Just think of Doob's bolded statement everytime you want to back that 16/1 shot ew because you always have or 'it is a good ew bet' blah blah.

agreed,awesome post.
i tend to look for non handicaps where the horse i'm backing at 10/1 will win that percentage of the time, but as the race is uncompetitive the place part is better,i.e under 2/1.
the 5.30 at Tipp would be a good example betting All About Alfie at 9/1 (if i could) getting 9/5 on the place portion of the bet where the true odds are probably 6/4.

@doubleup
can't seem to get your calculator to work on iphone, is there another version for when i'm in the shops?

That is the type of race I avoid.  It is close to classic dirty each way, and most of the bookies have ducked the 9/1 on the machine.  Victor trader is new in the job obviously. 

There are reces where the maths will fall apart.  You may see 10 runner group 1s with 3 or 4 horses that are rags, or you may get a short priced favourite in an 11 runner handicap.  Most of the time you can just think good race/bad race before even opening Betfair.   
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
peejaytwo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 447


View Profile
« Reply #86 on: May 14, 2015, 01:41:50 PM »

Quote
As i have said before probably the best 100 ew bets i have ever had in my life i would say the vast majority of them have been shorter than 4/1

i agree with this as well but good luck trying to tell your average betting shop punter the merits of an ew double on two 2/1 shots. it seems ingrained in them that you can only bet ew if its 10/1 plus.

just to complicate matters further....
what are your views on betting the imaginary 10/1 shot ew with a split stake.
i.e 100 win at 10/1
40 place at quarter odds just to get the win stake back?

its not something i do,but if i'm backing a horse for someone else he regularly does it and it winds me up no end.
Logged
arbboy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 13175


View Profile
« Reply #87 on: May 14, 2015, 01:56:15 PM »

Quote
As i have said before probably the best 100 ew bets i have ever had in my life i would say the vast majority of them have been shorter than 4/1

i agree with this as well but good luck trying to tell your average betting shop punter the merits of an ew double on two 2/1 shots. it seems ingrained in them that you can only bet ew if its 10/1 plus.

just to complicate matters further....
what are your views on betting the imaginary 10/1 shot ew with a split stake.
i.e 100 win at 10/1
40 place at quarter odds just to get the win stake back?

its not something i do,but if i'm backing a horse for someone else he regularly does it and it winds me up no end.

It is ingrained to them because the bookies PR men and media gurus bang on constantly about 'its a good ew bet' blah blah to sell you products that are profitable for them.  When was the last time you heard a bookie pr man say 'this 4/5 fav in this 8 runner race is a cracking ew bet as the place is 1/16 on the machine and we are offering you 1/6!  These pr guys quietly go about their business 'ingraining' this bullshit into the vast majority of punters heads because that is how they earn their salaries.
Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15857


View Profile
« Reply #88 on: May 14, 2015, 02:34:14 PM »

There is always an exception.

The 4.20 at York is an 11 runner listed race, but has a really good shape (one short priced runner and 3 rags).  Also Beteveryday are going quarter first 3, presumably as part of some York bettiing promotion.

So Zuhoor Bayoona is 8/1, which is close to that price on the machine, but the 2/1 they give you on the place is quite a bit bigger.  In addition, Profitable would be named well if they went 14/1.



Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15857


View Profile
« Reply #89 on: May 14, 2015, 06:19:26 PM »

There is always an exception.

The 4.20 at York is an 11 runner listed race, but has a really good shape (one short priced runner and 3 rags).  Also Beteveryday are going quarter first 3, presumably as part of some York bettiing promotion.

So Zuhoor Bayoona is 8/1, which is close to that price on the machine, but the 2/1 they give you on the place is quite a bit bigger.  In addition, Profitable would be named well if they went 14/1.





Profitable did indeed go 14-1 and live up to his name, not for me unfortunately.
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.364 seconds with 21 queries.