Boyles have confirmed that they use stats supplied from the Press Association for their markets.
Apologies, this is going to be quite long and full of stats.
When I first saw your proposed bet I thought it sounded great but the more I look in depth at it, the more I understand why they are pricing it as they do.
I'm not saying the bet is bad, just that it's an interesting market and it's a lot tighter than a top goalscorer market.
If you take these stats as being about right,
http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Combined_2012-13.htmlthe leaders are Mata + Hazard both with 13 each but there are 9 players very closely bunched with at least 9 assists.
Chelsea have 2, Mata and Hazard with 13 each.
Arsenal have 3, Cazorla (12), Walcott (11) and Podolski (10).
United have 2, RVP (10) and Rooney (11).
Liverpool have 1, Gerrard (9) but Coutinho got 5 in less than half a season, signing in January.
City only have 1, Silva (9) but Tevez got 8. City scored a comparitively low team total of goals though, which is sure to rise.
After that we have some interesting ones, Shaun Maloney and Jean Beausejour of relegated Wigan both got 8. Duff and Ruiz of Fulham both got 7.
So anyway it seems that teams tend to share out their assists quite evenly among their top 2 or 3 assisters.
So what we ideally need for this bet is a team that is going to score a shed load of goals and that hopefully doesn't have too many guys assisting. We want a guy that hogs all the set pieces as well as being a great final third passer.
Last year team goal totals
United 86
Chelsea 75
Arsenal 72
Pool 71
City 66
Spurs 66
Spurs are up there with the top team goal totals but their assisters are too spread with Bale/Lennon (7), Dempsey (6), Defoe/Sigurðsson (5).
So I think our winner is going to come from the top 5 teams but which team is going to increase their goals total? Well this is why I think I'd rather wait until the transfer merry go around finishes but I think Chelsea may finish around the same (75).
Chelsea scored 72, 72 and 64 in Mourinhos 1st spell at the club. I think we can expect something of the same, possibly slightly higher. They have a potential of a Spurs type spread this year as well with Mata/Hazard/Oscar/Schurrle/De Bruyne/Lukaku and others all possibly sharing the assist load more.
City I think will certainly score more than 66 this year. And Navas is an interesting one for sure. His club record of 388 games, 34 goals and 77 assists is good but not incredible (albeit he'll be in a more competitive, goalscoring side) and his chronic homesickness is likely to be sorely tested during a year in Manchester. I think they may suffer from too many assisters but Silva would be the major danger to my mind.
If Pool lose Suarez then their goal total will surely fall and Gerrard had a good assist total last year but he played virtually every league minute and that's unlikely to re-occur. Coutinho is an interesting one though, I see him as Pools main assister this year.
United is an interesting one. Last years 86 goals is hard to better so I don't see more goals. Their transfer business is possibly going to be key.
If they sign Fabregas, he's an assist monster and he would shake up the whole market. I don't think it's likely but who knows? Kagawa is priced the same as Cazorla which is strange as he only got 3 last year. If they sign Baines, he may hurt RVP by taking some set pieces away.
Arsenal were the only club with 3 players in double figures for assists last year. That's not ideal.
On the plus side for Cazorla, he's likely to be better in his 2nd year at the club. I think I read somewhere that he made more passes in the final third than any player in Europe last year and this is a key stat. And this for a team that struggled into 4th.
If Arsenal sign Suarez, I think it's an ideal transfer for Cazorla. He's a greedy goalscorer who doesn't assist much and this is what we want. More goals for the club but less sharing.
Cliff notes: I like the bet but I'd like to wait. If Arsenal sign Suarez, I love the bet.
Also on a sidenote, I like Arsenal @ 11/1 e/w for the league. Similarly if they sign Suarez, I love that bet (I'm on @ 12/1).
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