Jam or take a card turn spot at $400nl

[Nit Tendencies]

Full Tilt Poker Game #33201645519: Table Veyron (6 max) - NL Hold'em - $2/$4 - 11:53:05 WET - 2013/09/02 [06:53:05 ET - 2013/09/02]
Seats: 6
Seat 1: SUPERPOTENZMAN ($604)
Seat 2: theGrooouuuch ($418.90)
Seat 3: JonnyTilt ($408)
Seat 5: Gop_Machine ($418.10)
Seat 6: ChauveMePlz ($763.60)
SUPERPOTENZMAN posts the small blind of $2
theGrooouuuch posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to theGrooouuuch [ ]
JonnyTilt folds
Gop_Machine folds
ChauveMePlz has 8 seconds left to act
ChauveMePlz raises to $8
SUPERPOTENZMAN folds
theGrooouuuch calls $4
*** FLOP *** [ ] (Total Pot: $18, 2 Players)
theGrooouuuch checks
ChauveMePlz has 15 seconds left to act
ChauveMePlz bets $12.60
theGrooouuuch calls $12.60
*** TURN *** [ ] [] (Total Pot: $43.20, 2 Players)
theGrooouuuch checks
ChauveMePlz has 15 seconds left to act
ChauveMePlz bets $30.20
theGrooouuuch has 15 seconds left to act
theGrooouuuch has requested TIME
theGrooouuuch raises to $94.25
ChauveMePlz has 15 seconds left to act
ChauveMePlz has requested TIME
ChauveMePlz raises to $168
theGrooouuuch has 15 seconds left to act
theGrooouuuch has requested TIME
theGrooouuuch ?


So this is my first session at $400nl RUSH and the villain has no reads on me, but from watching the games and seeing him playing 2 tables of $200nl and 4 tables of $400nl I ascertained that he is a strong reg.

What is his range to click back the turn here, and considering that we are a random to him (i was playing 40/32/15 over my first 300~ hands in the game as it was playing 4 handed a lot of the time) is he bluffing this texture much vs an uncapped range? Does it matter because of how much equity we have?

Or should we just take the direct price that we are getting, as we have to call $73 into $303 giving us 4.15-1 odds which is obviously way above what we need.

[outragous76]

Calling everytime here (although tbf I probs don't raise turn either). Given the flush is back door and fairly nutted,  and the strength of his line, it suggests you are getting paid OTR when you hit.

Just don't call off when you river 1 pair and he jams! 

[pleno1]

He has a very strong range but all of our outs are clean.

Pre flop isa slam dunk 3bet in these games too IMO.

[Pinchop73]

If we call pre then call turn, pretty thin value range to be c/r'ing this stack. Also think he has a range that is hardly evrr folding when we jam (because we look so semibluff heavy as well as having nowhere near enough FE), we have too much clean equity to fold, leaves us with only one option imo

[Nit Tendencies]

Pre flop isa slam dunk 3bet in these games too IMO.

I've only just started in the games so I've not depolarised my 3betting range yet as I don't like to do that without at least reads on the eco system if not specific players and how they react to 3betting when they are in position.

P.S. Don't de-rail yet ANOTHER thread Pleno...

[Pinchop73]

Well other than Stu he's the only 400nl 6max reg that regularly posts here so imo his opinion I would value more than most. But agreed the situation in hand is way more interesting to discuss than pre.  

EDIT: sigh, how I thought you hadn't thought of this is a little foolish, D'oh

Cool spot he's put you in for sure tho. I think it's important to know what our perceived range is in this spot to know exactly how thin he can profitably click

[Rexas]

I agree with pleno here about raising pre, however as played I flat the turn. We have a very good hand here and a lot of equity to help us get to show down and make the best hand. The villains range here should be pretty strong, and yes we fold out bluffs by raising here but do we really want to, with all this equity? Basically I think our hand is just too good to bluff with, but not good enough to raise for value, so I'd plan to flick it in and make the nuts otr and crack that mofo's set!

[pleno1]

These games are beserk and very very different to any other game on the internet. People are not folding and raising turn to get stubborn calls from pairs and gutshots and jamming the river is good IMO. Just think we're a little shallow. Would prefer to start deeper to cr here.

Per flop I not mentioned it because it will be a big leak not to 3bet here.

[PutYouOnAK/AQ]

Don't mind 3 bet or flat here pre.  Fold flop imo, just purely oop vs unknown range...Obv turn nut card like the turn c/r, now i would peel and wait for river.  Think this is a get paid or fold spot otr our odds are amazing for the turn. Checking all rivers as vs value ranges we get paid and bluffs. If we miss sigh but odds are incred

[SuuPRlim]

Per flop I not mentioned it because it will be a big leak not to 3bet here.

Similar sized leak to not cold 5betting AJo?

[Nit Tendencies]

Don't mind 3 bet or flat here pre.  Fold flop imo, just purely oop vs unknown range...Obv turn nut card like the turn c/r, now i would peel and wait for river.  Think this is a get paid or fold spot otr our odds are amazing for the turn. Checking all rivers as vs value ranges we get paid and bluffs. If we miss sigh but odds are incred

I think we HAVE to float these kind of hands on the flop, for a few reasons.

1) We have two over cards and loads of backdoors giving us plenty of manoeuvrability against a button opening range.

2) If we don't have these kind of floats in our range it makes our flop check/calling range pretty mid pair/draw heavy making us so easy to play against when the turn or river run off overcards.
Against good aggro players you shouldn't be constructing ranges where on certain turn cards you have 0 combos that connect with the card to continue with; having ranges which are that skewed makes it very easy to exploit us.

[PutYouOnAK/AQ]

Dont get me wrong it sounds like we're just bleeding money if we fold here.  But without initiative the hand is that much harder to play.  If we're happy to float here and continue with the hand then why aren't we happy enough to 3bet pre and make our lives so much easier.  Not constructing a range at all until the turn 3bet, think it would be a mistake to do so as well vs such a standard open.
Your probably correct regarding floating this is where I am very inexperienced as I very rarely get OOL when i'm OOP which may obviously be very exploitable!!

[pleno1]

Per flop I not mentioned it because it will be a big leak not to 3bet here.

Similar sized leak to not cold 5betting AJo?

Well this would be v bad not 3betting IMO whilst the aj is very bad if you don't wanna be an absolute crusher b fine to fold if you want low variance 1bb profit!

[wazz]

I 3b pre most of the time. Flop c/c is good, any equity we pick up will be well-disguised and he will likely be barrelling turns that hit us. On the turn I think he's probably strong and we don't have much fold equity so I would just call and try to hit.

[rfgqqabc]

Per flop I not mentioned it because it will be a big leak not to 3bet here.

Similar sized leak to not cold 5betting AJo?

Lol.

Just peel I saw Pads play in these  games and they were just fucking batshit. Everyone spewing about super hard. Looked like fun though. I just don't see what hands he decides to click fold as a bluff and we have the price to call so might as well take it. He has JT? T9? Q9? Pair plus gutter seems like a hand he could do this with.