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redarmi
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« on: September 25, 2013, 10:38:26 PM » |
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I have been spending a bit of time in the past week or so looking into these new daily fantasy sports businesses that have popped up over the past year or so and appear to be becoming fairly popular in the States.
The concept is fairly simple in that you pick a fantasy team for that days baseball, nfl, nba or whatever and it is entered into what is effectively like a poker tournament and the best teams win. You have a salary attached to each player and can only spend up to, say $50k. The format is very similar to poker tourneys in so far as that there are sit n go's, 50/50's where half the field get paid, big runner games with large guaranteed prize pools.
Now my thinking is that coming up with projections for fantasy players values is very similar in principle to what I do when I am betting sports and there should be, at the very least, some crossover. I am sure that there are some tweaks to be made to ensure that your rosters work correctly with the scoring systems on the various sites but I think I could figure it out and wanted to see if there was any interest here in forming either some kind of syndicate to give these a go or alternatively just some kind of a staking deal.
The obvious risks would be that I haven't done this before and the market is significantly more sophisticated than I expect. I doubt this will be the case as, well it is largely Americans, and it is in its infancy and I have significantly more experience at predicting sporting events than the population i expect participates in these things. I could this on my own (and might) but there are two reasons I don't want to. Firstly, I have just bought a house and am working off a slightly smaller roll than usual. I am earning fairly well off that and the opportunity cost of diverting some of that money elsewhere is pretty high at the moment. Secondly, we have some amazingly bright guys here that know some of these US sport well and, importantly I think, I have been winning punters and have experience of how to adjust to structures etc.
At this stage it is just an idea but one that i am willing to put a bit of time and money into and wanted to see if there was any interest from anyone else here in either a) contributing and b) putting some money in. At this stage I would be lying if I said I had any great ideas about ROI or exactly how big an edge we would have and I suspect it depends somewhat on game selection etc. Any interest?
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Dubai
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2013, 10:40:24 PM » |
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Never seen or heard of them but up for gambling on it
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redarmi
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2013, 10:49:36 PM » |
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Oh the other important factor is that there is a massive landgrab going on between these sites at the moment for marketshare so they are giving away big bonuses which should make it pretty close to +EV without any skill in the early days. If we started with a roll of a $3-4k we could probably add 50% to that in bonuses on day one.
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Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2013, 10:55:31 PM » |
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Presumably you're talking about draftstreet, etc.
I'd be interested - keep getting special offers to sign up with them from everywhere, so just doing that could be +EV in some way!
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"...And If You Flash Him A Smile He'll Take Your Teeth As Deposit..."
"Sheriff Fatman" - Carter the Unstoppable Sex Machine
2006 Blonde Caption Comp Ultimate Champion (to be replaced by actual poker achievements when I have any)
GUKPT Online Main Event Winner 2008 (yay, a poker achievement!)
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byronkincaid
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2013, 10:55:54 PM » |
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can't help with a) but would be happy to put in $100 or so if that's any good? Imagine that it would be easier for you with fewer investors putting in more money.
Are the sites reputable as in do they pay up OK? I think the cardrunners guys do one don't they?
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Eso Kral
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2013, 11:03:23 PM » |
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Never seen or heard of them but up for gambling on it
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Andrew Charles Blacklock - Lived for those he loved and those he loved remember.
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2013, 11:04:07 PM » |
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I know nothing about US sports but definitely up for investing a couple hundred bucks or so. As you say, early days of this with a modicum of knowledge will be like the golden days of online poker. Shooting fish in a barrel.
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Big_D
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2013, 11:07:21 PM » |
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Never seen or heard of them but up for gambling on it
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Ship It!
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redarmi
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2013, 11:08:21 PM » |
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From what I can see there are 8-10 reputable looking sites of which about 6 seem to offer 100% signup bonuses up to a couple of hundred. There has to be a risk of one or more of them going belly up but they also seem to be getting a lot of attention from VC''s and are swimming with money for now.
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Bazzaboy
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2013, 11:11:54 PM » |
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Never seen or heard of them but up for gambling on it
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bobby1
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2013, 11:12:07 PM » |
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can you link to some of them please Red?
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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bobby1
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2013, 11:24:46 PM » |
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haha will take a look mate |
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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bobby1
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2013, 11:33:31 PM » |
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It looks great, I can prob get a decent MLB guy involved if we needed one.
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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redarmi
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2013, 11:34:48 PM » |
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MLB would definitely be my weakest sport of the big three and it is the one where you probhably need to be best maths wise as I can imagine there are a bunch of Sabermetricians involved.
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