Final two tables of Big 162 - Combo draw

[lucky_scrote]

What's HollyH3ll range for over calling? I assume that he had JT with a backdoor, but if we jam dont we run into a set a huge amount of the time.

What percentage of the time do you think you are being called? What is their calling range if you just pile the turn first to act? They are forced into calling kinda tight because you HAVE to have something pretty damn strong.

Admittedly, once you check the turn and player 1 bets 50k he looks really strong, but you didn't know that until you checked. What do you think their peeling ranges are on the flop and which hands will they continue with?

Maybe I'm wrong and that player 3 has it here? It's really quite awkward stacks all round but still I just find it hard to believe that either of them always have a set and it kind of feels like it's the only hand they can call a jam with on the turn. If they have a set 50% of the time it's a profitable jam. (I was wrong in my first post, you need them to fold 50% of the time if you jam and are drawing dead as you are betting the pot).

[pleno1]

mate fuck holy hell

[pez102]

Hello Sam,

Don't mind the open, depends on game flow. Personally I c/f flop, i think its an awful board for us to be cbetting 4 way. As played i'm betting like 42k (bet folding) on the turn, even though I think someone is likely to be pretty strong at this stage but we now have a combo draw and I don't expect anyone really to jam over our bet. We can build the pot for when we hit rivers and check fold when we miss - maybe jam A rivers too. Jamming turn is awful imo, i don't know what were expecting original flatter to fold to us?

[DMorgan]

Not a fan of the cbet either, think its pretty optimistic and as pads says you're almost certainly having to get the barrels out which is gunna be pretty awkward vs most of the stacks here. Agree with pez that open jamming the turn is bad imo. If your original peeler is a little spewy I can't see him talking himself into tight folds vs a turn jam. Same for the flop overcaller really, just don't think that enough of either of their calling ranges is folding enough to make jamming profitable.

Once you make the cbet though I think c/call turn and c/fold unimproved is best

[The Squid]

Thanks lads, very helpful.

[Nit Tendencies]

I really don't like this hand Sammy.

Preflop (I won't dwell because of your caveat) I think that you've chosen a pretty bad type of hand to open early position as it just doesn't flop that well oop vs peelers ranges and I think we get peeled a decent amount.

Post, I think your cbet sizing is too small. We want to dissuade people from making floats with hands that we have reverse implied against (KQ/KJ) and hands that play well against us that won't allow us to realise our equity (JT/QJ) and of course, put as much pressure on small pairs as possible.
If we bet 1/3 pot here he'll probably call one with 66/88 where as if we bet more like 1/2 or even 60% then it puts the first peeler in a right coffin and looks a hell of a lot stronger.

Betting bigger on the flop also means that we can clearly jam spade turns which gives our flop bluff some backup.

As played, i think we can still pile the turn, we have decent enough equity if we get heroed by JJ/TT from the first peeler but I think he can be much wider than that because of your flop sizing. Even with JJ/TT he should be hating it if you pile with a player behind too, so again you are putting both players in a  coffin as your range looks really strong jamming 3 way on this relatively blank turn.

[Nit Tendencies]

Really /thread?

[The Squid]

Once the bear speaks that's the ball game!