This ok?

[Eso Kral]

Not sure this needs a thread but Milli asked me to to see responses from the good folk of Blonde

DTD Tourney
15000
9000
5500
3500

We are button 900k  villain is CambridgeAlex SB 5M, JGill BB 2.25M  UTG Villain who folds has 2m
Blinds 30/60/10k and go 40/80 in 3mins

folds to us  we shove Q9o into Alex and Jon  cool?

[Rexas]

So we have 15bbs? Seems totally fine mate

[millidonk]

Lolz, always blame me.. As I said its abs fine and the majority of online kidz don't give it a seconds thought. Some older generation will open fold which is probs too nitty 4 handed. But I would be interested to see if there are any live pros that ever r/f here. Raising looks so strong and obv they won't think we have a r/f in us with our stack so its pretty unexploitable.

[Tal]

Assuming you've played reasonably normally up to now (so this doesn't look completely alarming), shoving seems the most reasonable option to this live rec.

[theprawnidentity]

As I said via PM.  Close between shoving and folding (doing more shoving than folding depending on the other stack sizes / dynamics).  Really dislike raise folding or raise calling.

[cambridgealex]

As I said via PM.  Close between shoving and folding (doing more shoving than folding depending on the other stack sizes / dynamics).  Really dislike raise folding or raise calling.

If he had a similar stack to anyone else I think there's a good argument for folding. But he had less than half of the next biggest stack, so think he really has to take this spot and jam.

[theprawnidentity]

Indeed.  I'm pretty sure I said that in the PM I sent Eso, but nice to know that you know what you're talking about and aren't just a haircut.

[millidonk]

meh, r/c upper and r/f bottom end of your range is fine. I think I am just ahead of the trend as per. In a few years time everyone will be doing it..


Alex, fwiw what would be your general impression had Eso opted to 2 to 3x it in this spot? Surely it would set alarm bells off as opposed to thinking "lol, this fish. i'm jamming"

[cambridgealex]

I also sent Eso a pm about this hand. And apparently lots of people also did but didn't want to post itt.

[cambridgealex]

Alex, fwiw what would be your general impression had Eso opted to 2 to 3x it in this spot? Surely it would set alarm bells off as opposed to thinking "lol, this fish. i'm jamming"

I'd think Eso still had a r/f range but I wouldn't jam T3s or anything...

[theprawnidentity]

Alright I promised Eso I would do some sums ITT.

Nash suggests, based on the payouts that:

We should shove:  22+,A2s+,A8o+,K7s+,KTo+,Q8s+,QTo+,J8s+,JTo,T8s+,98s
Alex should iso:     55+,A8s+,A9o+
Gill should call:       55+,A8s+,ATo+,KJs+,KQo

As Alex suggested, the reason I like shoving here is for reasons that Nash fails to take into account; our position in the tournament with 4 left is about as bad as it can be.  We have fewer than half as many chips as 3rd and the blinds are about to go up.  In the next couple of hands the blinds will have gone up and through us thus potentially leaving us with 8 or 9bb's.

The reason I don't like raise calling is that Q9o isn't really a hand that we want to induce action with.  If we go just based on the Nash calling ranges, you can see that we get so much that we want to fold just by shoving.  The last thing I want is for either of them to eyeball me with with something like Kxs or some weak Ax hands when I would have otherwise got a fold.

I don't like raise folding for a couple of reasons.  Firstly for it to be profitable we would have to be getting a good portion of folds from the blinds and given the reputation of all 3 bro's involved I don't see this getting through all that often.  Secondly if were in a bad position in the tournament before this, then raise folding here will only make things worse.  Assuming we're going to min raise and make it 160k, then fold, we will be left with 700k by the time the blinds go up and then through us.  So in 4 hands time, were going to have paid another 80k + 40k + 40k in antes and be sitting on around 550k (6.8bb).  And now were going to have to shove the button / co with very little fold equity into 3 players who can all comfortably call it off.

[celtic]

Think in this situation, raise folding would be tragic v Alex.

[cambridgealex]

Think in this situation, raise folding would be tragic v Alex.

Like his moustache

[celtic]

Poor old wooden spoon. He does look a bit strange though, to be fair.

[millidonk]

Bit of a disjointed reply as saw Tomsom's reply half way through..

Nash also fails to take into account the pure value of us remaining in the tournament.

I think we would have been unfortunate that it was Alex in the BB. A lot of people either wont give him much of a r/f range at all and loads will be folding hands they shouldn't. IMO the vast majority of people are only really jamming when we are in pretty bad shape and would have called our jam anyway.

Jamming = 1. Fold out marginal hands 2. Fold out weak hands
R/F = 1. Fold out marginal hands 2. Fold out weak hands 3. Fold out some strong hands  (I've seen people fold A10/66 and below) 4. Fold to a 3b and remain in the comp (which is impossible to put a price on)

Obv they could call a jam and we get a sexy double, but they could call our open and we get a sexy flop anyway.

Tom, you say you don't want to r/c as Q9 isn't a hand you want to induce with but my whole theory is based on the fact that if we raise they think we are inducing thus play badly against us.. Obv not everyone is a Goulder with a new haircut so they won't know we have a fold in us.

Obv I realise I am the only person who has spoken out that is on this side of the fence but If we all played exactly the same then not many people would make much money and I know firsthand that this play can be profitable all be it over a small sample. Just trying to provide options.

Anyway, Eso; Nash says it's a fold you fish. Get your ranges down!